tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 15 Author Report Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, susqushawn said: We are desperate, aren't we? i'd say so. Never saw so much analysis for a day 10/11 storm that will likely change Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Just now, tombo82685 said: i'd say so. Never saw so much analysis for a day 10/11 storm that will likely change Hopefully the law of averages will kick in and benefit us. Otherwise the post-mortem of this winter would make for an entertaining read Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. Anticipation is the best part. Once the storm starts we're seeking out the next one hah Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. I know you and I have different view points on snow events, but I'm still watching friday time period to see if that can trend back to a 1-3 or better type thing. Those cut off lows down in the southwest can give models fits. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
White_Mtn_Wx 857 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. The incredible beauty of falling and on the ground snow is the best part. Tracking digital snowfall is a PITA 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 44 minutes ago, White_Mtn_Wx said: The incredible beauty of falling and on the ground snow is the best part. Tracking digital snowfall is a PITA The first flakes are the best. Then I’m looking at the 240hr euro. No seriously I love this stuff, snow and I have a complicated relationship. Sure, I’ll enjoy a 1-3er but it ends up making me crave a 2 footer that much more. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 00z cmc looks pretty decent at 174. Bringing more energy out with that first southwest wave. It doesn’t have that pig ULL sitting in south central Canada like the GFS does Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Couple of light T-1 snow events on GFS. If you like that kinda thing Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 This is such an anomalous pattern going Into the 6-10 day timeframe. Can’t recall the last time seeing something like this. Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: This is such an anomalous pattern going Into the 6-10 day timeframe. Can’t recall the last time seeing something like this. It’s really unbelievable. I was going to make the same post. I don’t know if it’s bad luck. Maybe a type of pattern that just isn’t conducive east coast storms. The La Niña influencing the strength of the jet, I have no clue. You’d think a west based block, -epo, -pna would do something! It’s incredible. I wonder how the block recovers after it it retrogrades all the way into frigging Minnesota Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Maybe we bite the bullet and the PNA rebuilds towards February, but then idk what happens to the AO. You can see signs of the epo ridge shifting west a bit here and a pna ridge starting to rebuild next to the Rex block. Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,110 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Don't see much change overnight. Weak wave friday that reinforces cold air. Then plenty of uncertainty on system coming out of southwest around day 10. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 674 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Don't see much change overnight. Weak wave friday that reinforces cold air. Then plenty of uncertainty on system coming out of southwest around day 10. I saw some things on the Euro that looked a little better for the 10-11 day threat like the 700mb rh map that didn't show a shredding machine off New Foundland and even though there was a lobe of sorts heading westward at 500mb, it was further north than prior lobes that screwed us. Plenty of time for things to change, or should I say for the models to pickup that ruin our chances again, but hopefully not. Edit: Just took a peek at the 6z GEFS and they looked a bit worse with precip qpf. I don't know why I continue to look at the ensembles this year. It's the same thing every time....so far at least. Link to post Share on other sites
mshaffer526 2,333 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just cannot get anything in the short term. Plenty of potential in some of these model runs but that and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee. #remember2010-11 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 still looked like plenty of potential on euro and eps for a 1-3 event next friday. We will see if we can juice that up a bit without killing the thermals, they may be hand in hand though 1 Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Sweet ocean effect snow event coming up. Heisi, want to charter a boat? Chubbs can fish. Tombo can captain. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,110 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: still looked like plenty of potential on euro and eps for a 1-3 event next friday. We will see if we can juice that up a bit without killing the thermals, they may be hand in hand though ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better. Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Chubbs said: ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better. Just to see flakes flying again is my bar. Build some positive momentum 1 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better. Yup, I don't see why we can't get something like that. Still 6 days to go, maybe we can juice up the southern vort a bit better Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Gfs nice thump on 2nd wave, more ridging out ahead Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Actually full phase, big storm Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 Boooo I was hoping nothing would show up. I could feel Susq was getting close to the ledge with these dry runs 2 Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just 1 of many options. Here is trend, quite variable as expected. Bit warm for philly but still thats a big wrqpped up look vs weak wave Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, tombo82685 said: Boooo I was hoping nothing would show up. I could feel Susq was getting close to the ledge with these dry runs Link to post Share on other sites
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