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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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5 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

We are desperate, aren't we?

i'd say so. Never saw so much analysis for a day 10/11 storm that will likely change

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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

i'd say so. Never saw so much analysis for a day 10/11 storm that will likely change

Hopefully the law of averages will kick in and benefit us.  Otherwise the post-mortem of this winter would make for an entertaining read

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. 

Anticipation is the best part.  Once the storm starts we're seeking out the next one hah

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15 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. 

I know you and I have different view points on snow events, but I'm still watching friday time period to see if that can trend back to a 1-3 or better type thing. Those cut off lows down in the southwest can give models fits. 

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2 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh. 

The incredible beauty of falling and on the ground snow is the best part. Tracking digital snowfall is a PITA

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44 minutes ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

The incredible beauty of falling and on the ground snow is the best part. Tracking digital snowfall is a PITA

The first flakes are the best. Then I’m looking at the 240hr euro. No seriously I love this stuff, snow and I have a complicated relationship. Sure, I’ll enjoy a 1-3er but it ends up making me crave a 2 footer that much more. 

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4 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

This is such an anomalous pattern going Into the 6-10 day timeframe. Can’t recall the last time seeing something like this. 

DAA34656-6FB0-4AD7-9D9C-170D53CD1CF2.png

It’s really unbelievable. I was going to make the same post. I don’t know if it’s bad luck. Maybe a type of pattern that just isn’t conducive east coast storms. The La Niña influencing the strength of the jet, I have no clue. You’d think a west based block, -epo,  -pna would do something! It’s incredible. I wonder how the block recovers after it it retrogrades all the way into frigging Minnesota 

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Maybe we bite the bullet and the PNA rebuilds towards February, but then idk what happens to the AO. You can see signs of the epo ridge shifting west a bit here and a pna ridge starting to rebuild next to the Rex block. 

71C7EA5E-7BA9-47BF-B2A7-2C910195939D.png

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Don't see much change overnight. Weak wave friday that reinforces cold air. Then plenty of uncertainty on system coming out of southwest around day 10.

 

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8 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Don't see much change overnight. Weak wave friday that reinforces cold air. Then plenty of uncertainty on system coming out of southwest around day 10.

 

I saw some things on the Euro that looked a little better for the 10-11 day threat like the 700mb rh map that didn't show a shredding machine off New Foundland and even though there was a lobe of sorts heading westward at 500mb, it was further north than prior lobes that screwed us. Plenty of time for things to change, or should I say for the models to pickup that ruin our chances again, but hopefully not. 

Edit: Just took a peek at the 6z GEFS and they looked a bit worse with precip qpf. I  don't know why I continue to look at the ensembles this year. It's the same thing every time....so far at least.

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Just cannot get anything in the short term. Plenty of potential in some of these model runs but that and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee. 

#remember2010-11

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still looked like plenty of potential on euro and eps for a 1-3 event next friday. We will see if we can juice that up a bit without killing the thermals, they may be hand in hand though 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

still looked like plenty of potential on euro and eps for a 1-3 event next friday. We will see if we can juice that up a bit without killing the thermals, they may be hand in hand though 

ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better.

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4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better.

Just to see flakes flying again is my bar.  Build some positive momentum

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

ukie, para have some light snow. Tough for a bigger event unless north and south stream hook up better.

Yup, I don't see why we can't get something like that. Still 6 days to go, maybe we can juice up the southern vort a bit better 

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