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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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GEM gets a system out of SW

4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

CMC/para have a decent setup at/post 240, but then again. With this winter we know that what can go wrong will probably go wrong. 

D6695838-B167-43EF-ACF0-EB174910233D.png

GEM is a better run than gfs. Fairly close with day 8-9 system also.

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I don't think that block would be to strong if that energy ejected out of the west. Thats why the storm pretty much vanished is because well it never ejects lol

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

We are due for an archambault system when this block relaxes, right? ......right?! 

Wouldn't say we were due, but that would be the period to look for an archambault storm

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39 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

@Mitchnick is gone after the 12z gfs op...shredder doing it's dirty work

People Falling Off Cliffs Part 1 HD 2017 - YouTube

Nah. I  said it was coming,  so I  mentally prepared myself for the umpteenth time in my life.  Now if last week of January,  but especially February should fail, then I'll find myself a ledge with a firepit at the bottom.

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Like Tom said, weaker shortwaves ejecting are just getting shredded by the -NAO/ 50-50 low combo. Would love to see a PNA spike, to allow a shortwave to amplify a bit. 
 

With the block being modeled, suppression was always more of a worry than a cutter. It’s a delicate dance (isn’t it always for snow?! Grrr!!!). 

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Just now, irishbri74 said:

Like Tom said, weaker shortwaves ejecting are just getting shredded by the -NAO/ 50-50 low combo. Would love to see a PNA spike, to allow a shortwave to amplify a bit. 
 

With the block being modeled, suppression was always more of a worry than a cutter. It’s a delicate dance (isn’t it always for snow?! Grrr!!!). 

I think there is also a fine line here. If that energy ejected out fully like euro showed yesterday the se ridge out ahead was def not suppression. The suppressed look right now is because as you said the full energy isn’t coming out it’s either sitting there or just in pieces. Won’t do it with that block

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One thing that could help us is that if the southwest cuts off completely it’ll have a better chance to eventually come east once the NS is out of the way. Like on 00z euro some of it came east attached to the NS energy. If that NS wave is by itself next Thursday or whatever maybe it leaves a better wave in its wake? Like this...

12z euro, the wave is completely cutoff. Letting the NS energy race east without any of it

CF3507DD-6902-42B0-A5C8-BC721B14845A.png

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13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

One thing that could help us is that if the southwest cuts off completely it’ll have a better chance to eventually come east once the NS is out of the way. Like on 00z euro some of it came east attached to the NS energy. If that NS wave is by itself next Thursday or whatever maybe it leaves a better wave in its wake? Like this...

12z euro, the wave is completely cutoff. Letting the NS energy race east without any of it

CF3507DD-6902-42B0-A5C8-BC721B14845A.png

Looks like the Euro literally  kills the sw energy by 180 hours. Rip

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