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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Cutter risk gone on 6z gfs now straight shredder.  Hangs back in SW so long that cold air can filter in, if it can gain latitude which it wont here could be decent

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh168_trend.thumb.gif.7393caf5630fea039ba42bb20e5828fc.gif

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Yea, the northern stream and southern remain disjointed and messy. Northern stream just doesn’t dig enough, and southern wave can’t amplify. Need something stronger or better timing. 

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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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while eps did decrease thurs/fri precip it bumped up wednesday a bit. Nothing crazy right now but something. Also have to remember this is still 6-7 days away. We just saw in one run this going from a snow to rain event to some clouds filtering in. Models struggling here still. 

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

while eps did decrease thurs/fri precip it bumped up wednesday a bit. Nothing crazy right now but something. Also have to remember this is still 6-7 days away. We just saw in one run this going from a snow to rain event to some clouds filtering in. Models struggling here still. 

What is wed?  The northern stream piece coming through?

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3 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

What is wed?  The northern stream piece coming through?

kind of northern stream piece and a bit of energy from southern stream. It's not a huge signal, but it was a notable increase from 12z

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Over half of the 6z gefs bring the SW vort out much earlier than op.  Mixed results split evenly between snow/rain/miss to south.  Feels like guidance is trending out of favor but for now all options on the table

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Over half of the 6z gefs bring the SW vort out much earlier than op.  Mixed results split evenly between snow/rain/miss to south.  Feels like guidance is trending out of favor but for now all options on the table

I don't need a big event, a nice 1-3 would be sufficient 

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regardless of what may or may not happen next wed-fri period our best chances to me appear after as I said several days ago. Finally have some legit cold air to work with.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPTW-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-0668800.png

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Tough to get the temp gradient/wave timing just right for snow. 00z over corrected south. Need something in between the 00z and 12z range.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

the shortwave getting buried and lost in the southwest has hurt this event as of right now

last night before 00z I thought that looked fine of course then every 00z run buried it, lmao. This winter is hilarious. 

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

regardless of what may or may not happen next wed-fri period our best chances to me appear after as I said several days ago. Finally have some legit cold air to work with.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPTW-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-0668800.png

Amazing, the coldest week of winter per averages, and the best we can do is near freezing highs.   My, how the bar has dropped.  

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12 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Amazing, the coldest week of winter per averages, and the best we can do is near freezing highs.   My, how the bar has dropped.  

That’s like 5 to 7 below normal, cmon man. Plus for ten days away that’s impressive signal 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

kind of northern stream piece and a bit of energy from southern stream. It's not a huge signal, but it was a notable increase from 12z

EPS just loves the event to start the 26/26th. Looks like a Ohio valley runner to redevelopment 

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

NAO- trending to flatten the SE ridge on gfs. Differences in west also.

gfstrend1_15_12.gif

Delicate balance between the confluence and when the energy ejects. Fears of the block being to weak are quickly fading. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Delicate balance between the confluence and when the energy ejects. Fears of the block being to weak are quickly fading. 

Yea, plus that energy just sitting there and spinning isn’t good either. 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Yea, plus that energy just sitting there and spinning isn’t good either. 

Just sits off the west coast for day’s. The northern stream disturbance gaining some interest on the models this afternoon for Wednesday 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Delicate balance between the confluence and when the energy ejects. Fears of the block being to weak are quickly fading. 

LOL - the energy may never leave the SW.

gfstrend1_15_12.gif

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