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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Just now, Mitchnick said:

unless the block is stronger than progged and transfers further south ;)

Yes, that would help or less phasing out west. We've seen systems falter at day 4/5 so this isn't written in stone yet.

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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Would have loved to seen the rest of this run...

505AFBF1-3082-43F8-84EF-2D01E91A892C.png

 

My guess would be what the first system does, cut, then try and transfer

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1 hour ago, Baseball0618 said:

Well I am speaking in terms of the 22-23rd.  It think there is greater potential after that, but the first wave IMO has to be weak for us to be all snow. 

O yea, I'm not banking on all snow. Just saying I don't know if we can put limitations yet for snowfall until we know if a storm ejects out and what downstream looks from there 

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57 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Def a warmer look on eps, favoring rain, maybe quick hit to rain this run 

Yea that other shortwave that the gfs brings east from the NW phases into the southern energy on CMC & euro. The confluence 50/50 is fair at best. I think at this point a thump is the best we can ask for. Thing is you get a shortwave that looks like the euro verbatim I’d imagine you’d see a Nw trend once we got closer. Just speculation as it’ll be different in 12 hours

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1 minute ago, Mitchnick said:

fwiw, snowfall map on the 12z eps looks about the same as the 0z run

You talking out 360hrs or for the Jan 22nd period 

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23 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

We are going to be awash in a zonal PAC flow. Good luck with snowstorms.

 

image.png.6e9f0017d762fece75093f4974dc247c.png

The thing is with that being a mean we don’t get to see the actual nuances of the pattern. There could be a NS shortwave that races ahead of something coming east from the -PNA. I can actually see that pattern working. The issue imo is the block keeps being over modeled. Our timing of both streams blows, and it’s too close to 2020 for anything good to happen 

 

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I also think the event next week helps beat down the ridge a little which helps. Thing is I don’t really see this as a KU/major storm pattern. Not that any one would complain, nor I, but most id expect are events like today’s euro, maybe some embedded shortwaves that bring festives, and even ice storms with that look. The ridge position is just not conducive for a major snowstorm event. Shortwaves will just ride too far west

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31 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

18z gefs are mild, barely any snow through d9.  Rinse repeat.  Snow means are weighted d10-15 for the past week or so...not moving forward in time yet 

It’s a gradient pattern. Just gotta hope we land on the right side. I have little hope though. GFS is never right, except when it doesn’t show snow 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Block is stronger and ridge is weaker in the 18z eps. The energy is also slower to eject 

008434EF-62B6-4972-A7B2-6A386E5C86F8.png

yup, was just about to post. 12z to 18z. We will see if it's a trend for 0z

 

Ve03rs.gif

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Not sure if Id be worried about the southwest energy getting completely buried. Even the GFS, while delayed, brings it east. Just timing difference.

Those ridge and 50/50  improvements are most important and good to see. 
 

kinda agree with Mitch though. It’s the fact that a lot relies on timing which always makes me a bit hesitant 

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1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

Personally,  I  don't know what to root for any more with the constant changes and adjustments to each model run. 

Delayed. Word of the forum, apply it to every digital forecast. Unless it’s the -NAO. That’s now and worthless

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Cutter risk gone on 6z gfs now straight shredder.  Hangs back in SW so long that cold air can filter in, if it can gain latitude which it wont here could be decent

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh168_trend.thumb.gif.7393caf5630fea039ba42bb20e5828fc.gif

image.png.451775f55d896b8f6f7a2cc70b77cf56.png

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Look on the bright side, we’re not in any bullseye’s 7-8 days away, so that’s Goff count for something right?! 

just gotta make it to next week, and we have some hope and chances 

88743C17-B013-4B2C-906E-AFD736396760.png

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