Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 59 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Couple scrapes with Miller B's but those mainly miss, main hits are Miller A's and overrunning. We eat a cutter and that sets the stage. Mean likely skewed by some behemoths, so we'll see how it progresses next few days...and if it moves closer in time which has been a challenge Thanks. I wonder if that big ULL fails to deliver a coastal if I’d have a shot at some LES chasing. Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: Couple scrapes with Miller B's but those mainly miss, main hits are Miller A's and overrunning. We eat a cutter and that sets the stage. Mean likely skewed by some behemoths, so we'll see how it progresses next few days...and if it moves closer in time which has been a challenge Yea I'd say overrunning threat increases the later we go into January with more trough out west starting to show 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Looks like NAM showing more phasing with that first piece so far... edit: only a tiny bit more, but close. hey Tom and others, what is the best subscription site for eps individuals? Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Well, just in case you were wondering what we are missing today with that storm down south, not much. Ashville's hourly obs. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAVL.html Link to post Share on other sites
frankdp23 1,296 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: Well, just in case you were wondering what we are missing today with that storm down south, not much. Ashville's hourly obs. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAVL.html Yeah. This is courtesy of Walt Drag as of an hour ago. Looks like a pretty small area over accumulating snow. Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 30 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: Yeah. This is courtesy of Walt Drag as of an hour ago. Looks like a pretty small area over accumulating snow. Is Drag no longer in Boston? If not, where is he? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
frankdp23 1,296 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Is Drag no longer in Boston? If not, where is he? I believe he is living in north NJ near the High Point area. He posts over at American and 33. Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 CMC gets some light precip up to us. Btw gfs won’t do it this run, but it was a slight step towards cmc last night for LR. Need a little better separation here ...waiting to see if cmc has this event again 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Gonna be a close call but after that front this is the setup Susq and others mentioned this AM Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Gonna be a close call but after that front this is the setup Susq and others mentioned this AM The wave along the first big meridonal trough looks like a long shot. The setup you and susq were talking about looks good as of now. Atleast there is an airmass in front of it and not this garbage 1 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: The wave along the first big meridonal trough looks like a long shot. The setup you and susq were talking about looks good as of now. Atleast there is an airmass in front of it and not this garbage If there is a northern stream feature as has been showing up, going to need a a decent pna ridge out west to amplify the flow to allow that to dig under us. Weaker pna ridge and the northern stream low goes to your north. Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 CMC has this threat too Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Check out this map Tom, epic 50/50 check, confluence check, better air mass check, ridge check for the first front I may go LES chasing Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: CMC has this threat too decent look. Block across se canada with shortwave down near LA Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 There's an overrunning look which given the progressive flow might be better odds then miller b and holding out hope for a Gulf sourced storm...but who knows Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, susqushawn said: There's an overrunning look which given the progressive flow might be better odds then miller b and holding out hope for a Gulf sourced storm...but who knows Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not Yea I agree. So hopefully euro starts honing in on this time frame today. In other news Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Just be wary of these long range gfs outlooks. Notice how we get closer in time and they are getting warmer Link to post Share on other sites
Allsnow 936 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not We better hope it’s legit or a overrunning pattern won’t work Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We better hope it’s legit or a overrunning pattern won’t work Yea, you need blocking or some big man highs or it's just cold rain storms I.E what the Canadian did Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 5,481 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 lets see if this flow sets anything up down the road Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Only 9-10 days to go, but nice signal on GEFS Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,227 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 euro northern stream is not good. Trending to a flat ukie solution. Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Not perfect but aligns with rest of guidance today Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Euro op and gefs have a promising setup d8 on. While patience can be hard to muster, this was the core we've been waiting for. It won't look perfect and red flags will pop up every day, especially towards the end of each run. Hopefully we cash in. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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