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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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59 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Couple scrapes with Miller B's but those mainly miss, main hits are Miller A's and overrunning.  We eat a cutter and that sets the stage.

Mean likely skewed by some behemoths, so we'll see how it progresses next few days...and if it moves closer in time which has been a challenge

Thanks. I wonder if that big ULL fails to deliver a coastal if I’d have a shot at some LES chasing. 

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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Couple scrapes with Miller B's but those mainly miss, main hits are Miller A's and overrunning.  We eat a cutter and that sets the stage.

Mean likely skewed by some behemoths, so we'll see how it progresses next few days...and if it moves closer in time which has been a challenge

Yea I'd say overrunning threat increases the later we go into January with more trough out west starting to show 

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30 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Yeah.  This is courtesy of Walt Drag as of an hour ago.  Looks like a pretty small area over accumulating snow.

Snow.jpg

Is Drag no longer in Boston? If not, where is he?

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4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Is Drag no longer in Boston? If not, where is he?

I believe he is living in north NJ near the High Point area.  He posts over at American and 33.  

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CMC gets some light precip up to us. Btw gfs won’t do it this run, but it was a slight step towards cmc last night for LR. Need a little better separation here ...waiting to see if cmc has this event again

FEC404F0-1B30-46B9-B542-14A04B542A01.png

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8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Gonna be a close call but after that front this is the setup Susq and others mentioned this AM 

602570B3-AD70-48D6-920A-23C518C6D87E.png

The wave along the first big meridonal trough looks like a long shot. The setup you and susq were talking about looks good as of now. Atleast there is an airmass in front of it and not this garbage 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The wave along the first big meridonal trough looks like a long shot. The setup you and susq were talking about looks good as of now. Atleast there is an airmass in front of it and not this garbage 

If there is a northern stream feature as has been showing up, going to need a a decent pna ridge out west to amplify the flow to allow that to dig under us. Weaker pna ridge and the northern stream low goes to your north. 

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

CMC has this threat too

2E226988-1330-4464-9C52-601A8FBE5416.png

decent look. Block across se canada with shortwave down near LA

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There's an overrunning look which given the progressive flow might be better odds then miller b and holding out hope for a Gulf sourced storm...but who knows

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

There's an overrunning look which given the progressive flow might be better odds then miller b and holding out hope for a Gulf sourced storm...but who knows

Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not 

Yea I agree. So hopefully euro starts honing in on this time frame today. In other news 

93BB5A6C-7E6F-442B-BCF0-4C961335EA09.png

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed, I think coastal developments have a small window with how fast the pos pna goes then vanishes. This looks like overunning potential and or type of thing where a storm heads to lakes, feels block then develops on coast. Atleast we have the cold per gfs, not sure if it's legit or not 

We better hope it’s legit or a overrunning pattern won’t work 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We better hope it’s legit or a overrunning pattern won’t work 

Yea, you need blocking or some big man highs or it's just cold rain storms I.E what the Canadian did

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Euro op and gefs have a promising setup d8 on.   While patience can be hard to muster, this was the core we've been waiting for.  It won't look perfect and red flags will pop up every day, especially towards the end of each run.  Hopefully we cash in.

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