chescopawxman 1,157 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 I like the medium to long range look and this storm (tues/wed) I suspect will end up not too far from what is modeled on today's 0z Euro - typical climo with Snow to rain in the cities with Snow to IP/ZR N and W with 3" to 6" city and 4" to 8" N and W - kind of like the old days of my youth! 3 Link to post Share on other sites
SalemCountyNJ 454 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, chescopawxman said: I like the medium to long range look and this storm (tues/wed) I suspect will end up not too far from what is modeled on today's 0z Euro - typical climo with Snow to rain in the cities with Snow to IP/ZR N and W with 3" to 6" city and 4" to 8" N and W - kind of like the old days of my youth! It's funny, I was just thinking the same thing. I remember being instructed to put one pair of socks on, then bread wrappers over them, then another pair of socks. Yes, my mom saved bread wrappers to keep my feet dry, LOL.. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z icon just took big step towards euro solution fyi Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 ^ it’s still not ‘there’ yet but an obvious trend Link to post Share on other sites
jrodd321 435 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Icon looking much better indeed. Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Icon has flow due east off NC. Despite the improvements, the flow is still pancake flat. Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Yea and so far GFS at 75 looks like imo northern branch angle will likely crush it this run if I were to guess. Meh Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 The vort the euro phases is farther east on the gfs, but there still is another small vort behind it that could help intensify, but idk Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 This is why I still would roll the dice with a euro type look. I didn’t like the 6z euro trend with that NS shortwave. Just too much risk for shredding Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z gfs vs 00z euro look at differences with NS shortwave Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: 12z gfs vs 00z euro look at differences with NS shortwave It’s not just that. The euro is a good bit stronger with southern vort which pumps hgts out ahead. Gfs is just flat with it Link to post Share on other sites
Allsnow 921 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 The southern vort is also weaker. This is going to get buried and then blended on the gfs Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 As long as the gfs has a storm that’s going off hse I’m fine. It’s the ggem I want to see. If that loses it in then that wouldnt be good Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 It’s weird the H5 doesn’t look bad it almost looks like a model bug Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 The gfs phases with a different shortwave than the euro. It’s completely different look Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lol Lol. Just a little change there 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z cmc looks like a non phase. Northern branch will crush it imo even though southern branch looks fine. This event is annoying Link to post Share on other sites
Allsnow 921 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol. Just a little change there As HM said on twitter with so much noise it could very well be zzzzzz next week Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: As HM said on twitter with so much noise it could very well be zzzzzz next week Yup, I said it 2 or so days ago so many damn short waves competing 1 Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yup, I said it 2 or so days ago so many damn short waves competing A sustained PNA would certainly help quell the Pac firehose. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snowlurker 1,044 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 I say this in all sincerity. For 95 SE, the models are more or less consistently not showing any significant snow accumulation. For other areas, there perhaps are other possibilities. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, susqushawn said: A sustained PNA would certainly help quell the Pac firehose. Yup that’s not allowing anything to amplify either or bring cold south. But Shawn you have a neg nao Link to post Share on other sites
frankdp23 1,185 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 20 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: 12z cmc looks like a non phase. Northern branch will crush it imo even though southern branch looks fine. This event is annoying Off OBX and sliding out. Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Can’t declare anything yet when models are shifting features 500-1000 miles each run. Going from a storm to no storm. Till there is consistency there is no definite yet 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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