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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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57 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

With no NS phasing the temps torch a bit

Lol this played out exactly how I was saying this morning at 6z. Southern vort alone can get it done with no northern stream phase, but then you have to worry about temps since no northern stream cold injection 

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24 hour change on the EPS. Pacific flow and Atlantic confluence both stronger. Argues for a lesser event, though confluence could help keep it frozen.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh144_trend.gif

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59 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

24 hour change on the EPS. Pacific flow and Atlantic confluence both stronger. Argues for a lesser event, though confluence could help keep it frozen.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh144_trend.gif

Idk i actually kinda think the 144 looks better. Sharper trough with more confluence.

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8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Idk i actually kinda think the 144 looks better. Sharper trough with more confluence.

that to me looks like it lost northern stream s/w and it's all southern stream. 

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looks like the gfs is a bit slower so far with that southern vort across new mexico. might allow northern stream to dive in better since it's slower

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def a bit better ridging out of the southern vort, slower still. Waiting to see if north vort over northern plains can come in. Then we have to see what his brother does in south central canada if that stays away or squashes flow

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EPS qpf and snow chart. Def some warmer solutions In the mix, always a chance with a bigger, phased solution. But yea.. quite the signal showing up. We should focus on that. 

04A21F1B-5E34-448D-8FAE-4654A648553D.png

CC5D99BA-01E0-45A1-A52B-72B08E1C8E7A.png

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Looks like they may just miss the phase again, but due to higher hgts out ahead it may allow southern vort to gain some latitude unless it dampens out completely

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like they may just miss the phase again, but due to higher hgts out ahead it may allow southern vort to gain some latitude unless it dampens out completely

Southern only is so weak sauce, I wonder how many of those eps are phasing vs ss only

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20 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Def still timing and speed differences so we’re stil 2 days from a good Idea, but trending better! 

8E8999A6-BD33-493A-B084-BD77026C4ABC.png

Trending better????

It's a  hit. Let the trend stop now. Lol

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58 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Southern only is so weak sauce, I wonder how many of those eps are phasing vs ss only

just looking at eps mean, it looks like they are just keying in on the southern shortwave, not much northern stream phasing. I'm sure there may be some eps members that do it. As a whole, when compared to 0z eps run, def a lack on northern stream phasing. Before, we had a better pna ridge that was meridonal, now its more sw to ne which tells me this storm as of right now on there is all southern stream.

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Man the next 2-3 weeks are going to be really fun. It looks like we’re going to see northern branch shortwave after NS sw just race through our region each one more intense than the last. Fantasy range and yeah verbatim doesn’t snow I don’t think, but holy hell is this an intense wave 

A85AE7E5-7DBC-420F-B9A0-FD54202D2324.png

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11 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Man the next 2-3 weeks are going to be really fun. It looks like we’re going to see northern branch shortwave after NS sw just race through our region each one more intense than the last. Fantasy range and yeah verbatim doesn’t snow I don’t think, but holy hell is this an intense wave 

A85AE7E5-7DBC-420F-B9A0-FD54202D2324.png

Be careful with the gfs post day 7. Has a bad cold bias in mid range and long range

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Be careful with the gfs post day 7. Has a bad cold bias in mid range and long range

But in the summer a warm bias with the 100s it spits out? It is weird, I guess its a seasonal bias

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26 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

But in the summer a warm bias with the 100s it spits out? It is weird, I guess its a seasonal bias

Yea In summer it's eternal heat waves

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Not really sure what to think of the euro. I know it’s still bit slower with the southern short wave. The one interest thing is the NS shortwave up south looks poised to shoot southward, but there’s another tiny lobe over the lakes I have no clue what to think ha

first image: 18z euro, then 18z gfs and then 12z euro for compairison 

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CB2B9A78-357C-4FC4-B4A7-EC85034B6901.png

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