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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Guess the 18z gfs killed off the old thread

over 55 pages, needed to start a new thread, maybe with it will bring some better luck

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4 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

If Dec ends up being our biggest storm of the winter I'm moving to the Tughill Plateau with tombo

Haha. We will get another 6+ event this month. We scored last month in a pattern that was okay for two days. We are talking about a favorable Atlantic and pac for 15-20 days. It will probably be a storm we aren’t even focusing on currently 

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8 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

If Dec ends up being our biggest storm of the winter I'm moving to the Tughill Plateau with tombo

I thought about that, then I realized that storm brought 22 times as much snow as Philly had all last winter, so it could always be worse haha

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1 minute ago, ACwx said:

I thought about that, then I realized that storm brought 22 times as much snow as Philly had all last winter, so it could always be worse haha

I have no complaints over what's coming.  100x better than all of last winter already indeed

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1 minute ago, Mitchnick said:

Our friendly vort looks less impressive on this run too

 

 

I'm sure instead of .08 on the eps total qpf at 12z  for philly, this run will go .09

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'm sure instead of .08 on the eps total qpf at 12z  for philly, this run will go .09

50/50 was weaker/tad East 

Probably why it ticked north but that lobe is still coming 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

50/50 was weaker/tad East 

Probably why it ticked north but that lobe is still coming 

Yep. Just gotta string a few of these minor tweaks in a row over the next 24 hours, and then we're  talking.

See the damage 1/25/00 did to me?

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5 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Yep. Just gotta string a few of these minor tweaks in a row over the next 24 hours, and then we're  talking.

See the damage 1/25/00 did to me?

Haha. 1/25/00 went from nothing to 1-2ft to 6-8 in a matter of 24 hours here lol 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

50/50 was weaker/tad East 

Probably why it ticked north but that lobe is still coming 

Yea, there was a bit better ridging out ahead in response to what you said. That’s why I said we will go from .08 to .09 lol cause that crushing vort is there 

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1/25/2000 was the year before I got into the hobby. Meaning I wasn’t in the wx community yet...I only remember twc saying new data was coming in and the radar looked great. I left for a wwf event down town, came home to a wsw 6-12 I think. Curious, we’re you guys looking at the models back then? What was the story? 

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

1/25/2000 was the year before I got into the hobby. Meaning I wasn’t in the wx community yet...I only remember twc saying new data was coming in and the radar looked great. I left for a wwf event down town, came home to a wsw 6-12 I think. Curious, we’re you guys looking at the models back then? What was the story? 

I was just getting started on weather boards. Think it was Wright Weather. I don't remember the modeling details other than the models gave a couple of head feints but ended up offshore going in. We had one or two savvy posters, who diagnosed a stronger wave off Florida from observation. That was the start, and it cascaded up the coast, as excitement built. That was the one eve when weenie radar posts meant something. Echoes in NC were moving due north.

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17 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

1/25/2000 was the year before I got into the hobby. Meaning I wasn’t in the wx community yet...I only remember twc saying new data was coming in and the radar looked great. I left for a wwf event down town, came home to a wsw 6-12 I think. Curious, we’re you guys looking at the models back then? What was the story? 

I have this great link to a study that was done, but it's on my desktop at the office, I think. I'll get  it to you tomorrow,  assuming I don't have it on my home computer. It's  got computer  runs and obs. It's  great fodder for  any weenie who experienced the storm

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Look, I did everyone a favor and asked the good people at the Euro if it would snow imby this weekend. I told them, no special forecast just give me a thumbs up or down. Sure enough, it's a "Thumb's Up!"

18Z EURO ESP SNOWFALL.1-4-21.png

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47 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

1/25/2000 was the year before I got into the hobby. Meaning I wasn’t in the wx community yet...I only remember twc saying new data was coming in and the radar looked great. I left for a wwf event down town, came home to a wsw 6-12 I think. Curious, we’re you guys looking at the models back then? What was the story? 

Here you go. Great info on the storm here.

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

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