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Barney Mini 1 around Christmas Day; GFS Has Done Worse.


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Well, trying to come up with a better way of presenting this, this season.

This followed a typical GFS script.

It tied into this (was too warm before) about 9 days outs, the start of modeling deterministic skill.

It then decided to go too cold.  Might have been related to its rain changing to snow before ending or the GFS once it gets a very cold solution, it takes it a while to purge it.

Yes as we leave the ice box period of 5-7 days out, it does tend to overcorrect and be too warm and then we slowly drift colder until verification time.  The correct lowest thickness is reached about 48hrs in advance.  The minimum temperature came this morning, it had it occur yesterday morning on most runs.

The Barney period (<516 thicknesses) lasted about 9 hours; some runs had it lasting as long as 33 hours.

Lowest Thickness 513; lowest temperature 23F.

 

1.JPG

 

2.JPG

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  • Rainshadow5.8 changed the title to Barney Mini 1 around Christmas Day; GFS Has Done Worse.

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