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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd love for them to be right, but problem is the gfs and gefs could be falling right into it's bias of being to progressive with everything. It has the fastest front passage of all the models. The ukmet and eps do have some light accumulations on the back side mainly for western areas. I just don't trust the gfs and gefs here until something else shows the progressive nature of the front and accumulating snow on backside. 

What’s your take on DT’s thoughts, posted under Vendors...

Dare I ask?

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3 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

What’s your take on DT’s thoughts, posted under Vendors...

Dare I ask?

The h5 look is there for a storm on the east coast. There is a nice nao, but my worry is source region for the airmass leading into it. To me it looks very marginal, I'd like to see modelling start showing the type of high we had with this past storm. I know models have high pressure to our north but it isnt a true cold source high, it's more pacific driven high. Just look at the dew points leading up to the period of interest, there in the mid 20s, not really an arctic or cold high, it's rather meh. The storm this past week had dews in the mid teens, that shows you there is a solid airmass to work with. So yes, while the h5 in the atlantic looks conducive for a good storm I worry the pacific pattern may sour things up with no real deep cold. 

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View Larry Cosgrove’s profile

Larry Cosgrove shared a post: What a "Greenland block" means to you. See also: https://lnkd.in/gDgAvsT The weather pattern over North America during the next 5-6 weeks will likely be heavily influenced by a large blocking signature, a positive 500MB height anomaly commonly known as a Greenland Block. A symptom of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, the persistent closed ridge complex can produce two noteworthy effects: 1) Keeping the incoming storm track suppressed toward lower latitudes in the USA, with strongest periods of disturbed weather off of the shoreline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England states and 2) enabling drainage of cold air from Canada into the lower 48 states. All of the numerical models have consistently shown ridging in the vicinity of Baffin Island/Greenland from the medium range (and in some cases) through the month of January. The analogs are also strongly favorable for this feature. If you look at forecast guidance, you see a trend of storms coming into the West Coast being diverted into Texas, then to Georgia, then slowing up along and off of the East Coast. It is a fairly classic scenario. The result? Heavier than normal precipitation in the eastern half of the U.S. Temperatures gradually trending below average after each storm.

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From JB at WB on the Sunday storm ending as snow from PHL to the NE:

"There is a) warm water b) a nice thickness bend c) its heading toward the source of the negative NAO, and in fact, this feature could turn the tide quicker, not to a real cold pattern, but to one that sees this start the bombing out and retrograding process off the east coast that can cut down the warming ( again not to cold yet, but to less warm) and be a wonderful example of how it can snow in a warm pattern At the very least its going to be darn close in my opinion, The Euro models look over warmed if precip is heavy As it is the snow is shifting slowly south again on it, I am not promising a big snow in the northeast cities, I do think from Philly Northeast it ends as snow, But the very chance of this should speak volumes to you on how poorly modeling is doing in these patterns. And that is A GOOD THING. Why? It increases your value as far as pursuing the right answer. Be of good cheer, We you have La Nina winters that look more like an el nino its a sign of chaos. And chaos is something that free for all weather nuts should love, cause it supplies a challenge. Who wants the answer to be easy all the time in something they truly love."

 

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