I Have Been Waiting 7 Years to Post This: Get a 6" Or Greater Snow @ PHL By The End Of December, Pretty Much Guaranteed At Least One More

[Rainshadow]

I spoke to Mount Holly and they are comfortable with the PHL amount.  So, let the games continue.  The date is the start of the snow.  Just one box ???? in is not a forecast.  Thank-you 1990 so no one can say I jinxed a previous perfect record.

 

[ACwx]

Great stat. 9/10 years is pretty good, but after last year there are no guarantees anymore (especially with the different climate / Arctic now). I'm thinking this chart gives support to a winter adage I've heard - whatever overall pattern establishes itself in December, you can depend on it in some part throughout the rest of the winter?

[Rainshadow]

4 hours ago, ACwx said:

Great stat. 9/10 years is pretty good, but after last year there are no guarantees anymore (especially with the different climate / Arctic now). I'm thinking this chart gives support to a winter adage I've heard - whatever overall pattern establishes itself in December, you can depend on it in some part throughout the rest of the winter?

We get one when we really shouldn't and then we get one when we should. I know, that is why I thank 1990 from saving me from the poster's jinx.

[Rainshadow]

5 hours ago, ACwx said:

Great stat. 9/10 years is pretty good, but after last year there are no guarantees anymore (especially with the different climate / Arctic now). I'm thinking this chart gives support to a winter adage I've heard - whatever overall pattern establishes itself in December, you can depend on it in some part throughout the rest of the winter?

Also, when we have had chances for snow, it may not have overperformed everywhere, but we have had some snow here and in New England.

[Rainshadow]

BTW this was from 1950 onward only in the CPC ENSO era.

[colonel_kurtz]

A couple of additions for the PHL / Nat'l Park era:

12/19/1945 - 9.2", none for the remainder of the season

12/30/2000 - 9.0", followed by 2/22/2001 - 7.0"

12/19/1948 - 7.4", none for the remainder of the season

12/26/1947 - 7.4", followed by 2/4/1948 - 7.3" (at least as there were 4 consecutive days w/measurable)

Regarding DEC 1990, true island in a sea of warmth, run of 60's before & after that event. A near miss as there was a 5.0" storm in early JAN 1991

I looked not that long ago & there's another 6 or 7 that occurred during the center city locations prior to 1940.

 

[Rainshadow]

57 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

A couple of additions for the PHL / Nat'l Park era:

12/19/1945 - 9.2", none for the remainder of the season

12/30/2000 - 9.0", followed by 2/22/2001 - 7.0"

12/19/1948 - 7.4", none for the remainder of the season

12/26/1947 - 7.4", followed by 2/4/1948 - 7.3" (at least as there were 4 consecutive days w/measurable)

Regarding DEC 1990, true island in a sea of warmth, run of 60's before & after that event. A near miss as there was a 5.0" storm in early JAN 1991

I looked not that long ago & there's another 6 or 7 that occurred during the center city locations prior to 1940.

 

Thanks Carl, I knew I missed one.

[Chubbs]

6 out of 11 we've had 2 6" snows. Any idea what the frequency of 6" snows is after Dec to get a handle on how much better these years are

[Rainshadow]

1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

6 out of 11 we've had 2 6" snows. Any idea what the frequency of 6" snows is after Dec to get a handle on how much better these years are

My count for the entire seasons thru last winter, 1949 onward, is 63 total events, so that would be 52 from Jan 1st onward in 71(?) seasons.

[Rainshadow]

Of course there are times of multiple events in one season and then those sparse run periods.

[colonel_kurtz]

Here's what I came up with for the entire Philadelphia snowfall period of record back to 1884. They've been (24) 6" or > snowstorms on record prior to JAN & on (16) occasions another 6" or > snowstorm occurred later that season. Obviously the trends have changed over time.

Digging a little deeper here are the entire seasons with the early 6"(+) storms. As you would expect the remainder of the season averages above the long term normal. Plenty of FEB bombs in the mix, 6 of the top 10 & 7 of the top 15. Still some clunkers in there however much rather be in this position as opposed to being skunked 1/3 of the way through met winter.

 

 

 

[Rainshadow]

On 12/17/2020 at 7:53 AM, Rainshadow6.1 said:

I spoke to Mount Holly and they are comfortable with the PHL amount.  So, let the games continue.  The date is the start of the snow.  Just one box ???? in is not a forecast.  Thank-you 1990 so no one can say I jinxed a previous perfect record.

 

All I can say, I knew it was like fishing in a barrel and phew I did not jinx it.

[colonel_kurtz]

18 hours ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

All I can say, I knew it was like fishing in a barrel and phew I did not jinx it.

now we can set our sights on 2013-14 & make a run at 4 in one season

[Rainshadow]

14 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

now we can set our sights on 2013-14 & make a run at 4 in one season

From our combined tables there is typically a 2-3 week gap between larger events, usually even longer than that. Running the climo model that puts us around 2/15 for the start of the favorable window.