Jump to content

Winter meltdown thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 434
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

My snowman had already tapped out. 

Gotta give it to @Allsnowwhen he melts, he goes all in like butter in the hot sun 

Looking for some reverse jinx action, so I put this up (awesome Xmas present).   

Posted Images

16 hours ago, Tiburon said:

This is the best representation of winter model watching I've ever seen:

 

Using these types of clips for anything exciting always make me laugh. This is a very good one lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it just me or has our modeling just gotten substantially WORSE over the years?  All the "updates" to the GFS/WRF, the NAM/ETA, and now even the former undisputed king the EURO, and IMHO we aren't any better than we were 20+ years ago.

I started watching weather as a wee lad, and when I went to college and discovered the internet and realized that I could see MOS output of all these models (among other things of other models...) I thought I had the keys to the city.  And we've always had busts.  Literally always.  I'm just not sure I've seen a time where so many models have been so wrong on such a consistent basis.  

And I know that especially in the US, the government hasn't budgeted squat to NOAA and NWS and that's a crime in itself, but when even the EURO is struggling so mightily--is this telling us that our existing "norms" that we program into these models to guide the guidance aren't correct any more?  Is it programming?  Is it climate change throwing a monkey wrench into things we thought we understood?

I've always been a skeptic of the weeklies and longer term forecasting--mainly because I've always been aware that skill decreases dramatically with time but to see the unbelievable waffling of models (and not the 50 mile shift that changes PHL from snow to sleet to rain--the waffling that changes PHL from cold and 5 at night to rainy and 55 in the morning over two runs 3-4 days out) has been discouraging as a weather enthusiast.  

Rant over.  Here's hoping that NWS and NOAA can get more funding to improve what they have--the people are there and they're already strong.  Let's give them the tools they need to do their jobs even better.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've actually never experienced a decent sleet storm. They're not common where I grew up. I seem to always be in snow, zr, or rain when these types of things hit the forecast area.

What I'm saying is that I'm down for some serious sleet.

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, snowlurker said:

I've actually never experienced a decent sleet storm. They're not common where I grew up. I seem to always be in snow, zr, or rain when these types of things hit the forecast area.

What I'm saying is that I'm down for some serious sleet.

 

 I can think of two cases when we had both a foot of snow and an inch of sleet  - Mar93 and Feb03

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh well sleet and mangled flakes beats rain and mangled flakes.  My street actually looks more treacherous than last storm. Some reports out of Maryland of a more snow weighed sleet/snow mix in the heaviest bands.  I will try to monitor the mix more than meltdown.  Glad my 20 minutes of moderate snow at least whitened things nicely.

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Oh well sleet and mangled flakes beats rain and mangled flakes.  My street actually looks more treacherous than last storm. Some reports out of Maryland of a more snow weighed sleet/snow mix in the heaviest bands.  I will try to monitor the mix more than meltdown.  Glad my 20 minutes of moderate snow at least whitened things nicely.

I’m suspending my meltdown, we are really fighting back on this sleet and it’s beautiful 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...