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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, while the h5 pattern has trended better it’s yet to be seen what type of airmass we can tap into and if it’s cold enough for some frozen. 

Yea*2, we will need to get lucky. Still a small chance is better than no chance.

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Can see it here better, see the angle of the cold as the flow is over the ridge  

Heisy probably hacked into that one

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44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yum 

 

Yea you really can't complain at all with that look. Just H5 wise it's getting close to pants tent worthy but still far away. You have Aleutian low, +pna, some ENAO, and Urals ridging. The Aleutian low and Urals ridge should put some pressure on the PV. Once we flush the pac puke out it will start getting better airmass wise. 

8B2F36DA-8143-4958-A27C-22251BA3BA00.png.8863e0aa56f7f98f081e869a61da84fc.png

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea you really can't complain at all with that look. Just H5 wise it's getting close to pants tent worthy but still far away. You have Aleutian low, +pna, some ENAO, and Urals ridging. The Aleutian low and Urals ridge should put some pressure on the PV. Once we flush the pac puke out it will start getting better airmass wise. 

8B2F36DA-8143-4958-A27C-22251BA3BA00.png.8863e0aa56f7f98f081e869a61da84fc.png

Your eps continues to trend that way 

D37AD2D6-E6E8-4075-A5A4-08106CBA9905.png

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39 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I would not consider this a higher than average confident outlook at this point because they are banking on a COD MJO progression through warmer phases. If we were in the second half of December, another story.

That and well it’s past 10 days away. Look how much this has changed this week. Let’s get this inside 8 days

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Despite the improvements, it's still a full on Pac assault on western Canada, which is the source of our air mass.  Easy to see why all of Canada is above normal especially when factoring in the effect of Chinook downsloping.  Doesn't mean we can't have a below normal stretch, it's just tempering expectations despite a potential longwave trough on the east coast.

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_fh210-384.gif

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3 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Despite the improvements, it's still a full on Pac assault on western Canada, which is the source of our air mass.  Easy to see why all of Canada is above normal especially when factoring in the effect of Chinook downsloping.  Doesn't mean we can't have a below normal stretch, it's just tempering expectations despite a potential longwave trough on the east coast.

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_fh210-384.gif

Looking at the ens, the pattern doesn't really improve to me till the 5th and onward. The cold shot to start the month is there but the ens have always been consistent with pac puke still invading as the AK trough is still on going. It's going to take time to scour out that airmass. Plus, what isn't helping is the big cold dome, the SPV that was over AK moves into Siberia. Be nice to get that to belly up into the trough and move into Canada. Also, remember, below normal hgts doesn't automatically mean cold, it can also just depict storminess and areas of low pressure. What people are alluding to though myself included. Instead of having a 0% of a wintry threat, with getting a +pna like that it atleast offers hope of something even though it's still low with dec climo and the bad airmass. 

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Models have been CODing this strong MJO wave, but it keeps chugging along (strongest low level forcing where blue+red meet)

 

Yea I have noticed the mjo wave is holding its own pretty good so far. This would be my guess looking at OLR plots on mjo path. Be curious to see if we get an adjustment in ens towards warmer if the current mjo wave holds stronger, because 3-6 in dec are a torch. As long as the wave is weak it will not have a huge impact but could turn ens a bit warmer down the road. I guess we will see. 

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I have noticed the mjo wave is holding its own pretty good so far. This would be my guess looking at OLR plots on mjo path. Be curious to see if we get an adjustment in ens towards warmer if the current mjo wave holds stronger, because 3-6 in dec are a torch. As long as the wave is weak it will not have a huge impact but could turn ens a bit warmer down the road. I guess we will see. 

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

There will be bigger bangs for the thickness bucks and it is kind of still outside of go to time, but it does seem like December should start colder than normal.  There is the complete phase (if it occurs) to drive the cold air southward.  No man high to speak of, one of those cases where it will be colder relative to normal the farther aloft one gets than below 850mb.

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44 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

There will be bigger bangs for the thickness bucks and it is kind of still outside of go to time, but it does seem like December should start colder than normal.  There is the complete phase (if it occurs) to drive the cold air southward.  No man high to speak of, one of those cases where it will be colder relative to normal the farther aloft one gets than below 850mb.

El Niño? Lol

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Still to much troughing into AK for the weekend runs on the ens. So pac puke still getting absorbed into the pattern despite the +pna. Need to get more amplitude and push the ridging up towards AK more. Weekend runs kind of flattened out the ridge out west a bit. Granted we are cooler than the rest of the nation, but really need to get those blues out of AK to cut off the pac puke. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Still to much troughing into AK for the weekend runs on the ens. So pac puke still getting absorbed into the pattern despite the +pna. Need to get more amplitude and push the ridging up towards AK more. Weekend runs kind of flattened out the ridge out west a bit. Granted we are cooler than the rest of the nation, but really need to get those blues out of AK to cut off the pac puke. 

Said this before and I will say it again, having the vortex in that general area is worrisome. The weeklies just keep it rotating there for the month of December 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Said this before and I will say it again, having the vortex in that general area is worrisome. The weeklies just keep it rotating there for the month of December 

Yup, it’s legit concern. That needs to get out for a good cold drain to get into Canada 

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Probably the best eps run in weeks. Canada is still torched to start the day 10 period but cools off by the end. Have to continue to watch those blues near AK. Out by Aleutians is fine, we don't want them backing into AK. You can see a really nice -wnao signal on here. Just unfortunately to start it's blocking in pac puke

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1607385600-40.gif

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Probably the best eps run in weeks. Canada is still torched to start the day 10 period but cools off by the end. Have to continue to watch those blues near AK. Out by Aleutians is fine, we don't want them backing into AK. You can see a really nice -wnao signal on here. Just unfortunately to start it's blocking in pac puke

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1607385600-40.gif

Need that ridge to build poleward and pinch off the blues in the Aleutians 

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Probably the best eps run in weeks. Canada is still torched to start the day 10 period but cools off by the end. Have to continue to watch those blues near AK. Out by Aleutians is fine, we don't want them backing into AK. You can see a really nice -wnao signal on here. Just unfortunately to start it's blocking in pac puke

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1607385600-40.gif

To my untrained eye it’s not bad, but not great. I don’t love the heights throughout Canada. I fear the mean trough in the east is compensating for some putrid closed off ULLs cutoff from the flow in our region. It does look like it’s trending or moving into a better look as it goes forward though so hopefully we have a shot at something between 8th-15th
 

OT: I was taking a nostalgic trip through YouTube last night before bed so I’m ready to start tracking. I Wish Rays winter storm archive was updated to current year. Let’s start a gofundme to make it happen!

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