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Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion


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Can see it here better, see the angle of the cold as the flow is over the ridge  

Heisy probably hacked into that one

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Source region is from Pac despite the NW flow over us.  Very modified airmass but maybe some hope on the horizon

Hopefully as we get deeper into December the airmass gets better. Above all else we need a good pacific. Hopefully a sign of things to come. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully as we get deeper into December the airmass gets better. Above all else we need a good pacific. Hopefully a sign of things to come. 

It will get colder all things being equal.  MJO question it does seem the models just like to COD at longer ranges, but like everything else skill (or any skill at all) falls off the table after day 9 or so.

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

It will get colder all things being equal.  MJO question it does seem the models just like to COD at longer ranges, but like everything else skill (or any skill at all) falls off the table after day 9 or so.

I wish roundy would update again :(  but even the other VP maps show pretty meh convection 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

True. But if there is a bias it is to COD it.

Ooo I agree on the rmm plots they default to COD. But when you move away from them and use the map I posted to allsnow, it’s pretty meh on convection. No real clear cut signal 

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ooo I agree on the right plots they default to COD. But when you move away from them and use the map I posted to allsnow, it’s pretty meh on convection. No real clear cut signal 

Another freebie euro chart. Looks a little too meh.  

ps2png-gorax-blue-006-6fe5cac1a363ec1525

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My advice, just be patient and see where ens take us by Thanksgiving. We know the pattern the next 7 to maybe 10 days is crap. It's once we get to the first week of December where there could be a shot of something, as long as we get a good pna ridge out west.

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0z gefs pattern from Nov 30th onward looks pretty darn good to my eyes for maybe some fun. Active southern stream with +pna to supply cold, how deep the cold is the question. EPS continue to adjust towards more PNA in longer range and have been getting colder in that timeframe 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

0z gefs pattern from Nov 30th onward looks pretty darn good to my eyes for maybe some fun. Active southern stream with +pna to supply cold, how deep the cold is the question. EPS continue to adjust towards more PNA in longer range and have been getting colder in that timeframe 

Was just gonna post this. Well, in my own words. Starting to like the look. I’m thinking if it holds we get an interior event first week December and maybe our first legit track towards the the end of the first week/second week. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

0z gefs pattern from Nov 30th onward looks pretty darn good to my eyes for maybe some fun. Active southern stream with +pna to supply cold, how deep the cold is the question. EPS continue to adjust towards more PNA in longer range and have been getting colder in that timeframe 

6z Gefs is also a thing of beauty as we venture into met winter.

Here is the progression from d7-15. PV has been shifting west consistently the past couple of days so a nice trend there, that allows heights to build over NAO and PNA domains and slowly tap some arctic sourced air.  

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh144-384.gif

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

May take some time to flush out the Pac modified air.  As previously noted, where trough sets up shop over AK determines trajectory of Pac jet

image.png.ce62bc4139b72ca264f9a5e9e2b9f67e.png

 

Yea, while the h5 pattern has trended better it’s yet to be seen what type of airmass we can tap into and if it’s cold enough for some frozen. 

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