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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond)


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Signals of an overrunning setup the days leading up to Thanksgiving.  Most 12z guidance has uber cold not too far north with rising heights (at least temporarily) in the PNA and AO regions. 

For illustrative purposes, here is the 12 GEFS that for now are trending in a better direction, but as we've seen, that Pac energy has been overperforming so need a few more days to see what will stick.  I'll probably feel ashamed for succumbing to phanton d10 weenie pattern flips

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

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Made this thread because the setup doesn't look to bad as of right now. Certainly "could" do something if things come together. Would like to see a better pna ridge out west and some more blocking into Greenland/baffin island area to give the confluent 50/50 low. Could possibly a case where the first low that comes in early tgiving week sets up the system right around tgiving. Regardless, as of right now, tgiving looks chilly per eps. 

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This IMO is what we need to see happen. You can see the players are there for something. Just comes down to cold air availability and track of the low. We have a -ao and -enao as well as +pna signal. I would like to see a stronger +pna signal, which would give a better drain of colder air southward instead of glancing by to the north. Would like to see -enao trend a bit more robust pushing the 50/50 low southward. 50/50 low goes south it flattens out the hgts along the east coast. Probably see one storm cut to our west, can't see how it wouldn't as there will be a se ridge there again after next weeks cold shot. That storm drags the front through and cold air dives south. With 50/50 low building in and compressing hgts, follow up overunning system tracks over or under us. In a perfect world thats how it would work. IMO, need to see the pacific cooperate first. Thats been the pain in the ass. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_1day-6219200.png

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33 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Someone got precip map for day 10 euro? That’s not a half bad pattern

big time CAD setup d10 Euro (🌭), overrunning snow upfront quick changeover, nice confluent setup up north.  great look for Mitch as it would redevelop off the coast.  Will it hold?  Heisi can place the odds

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Just for shits and giggles... the 12z Euro & CMC both have a major cold blast at end of run, but both have a trailing shortwave. It’ll change anyway, but I’m getting my tracking boots ready. The 00z para GFS had that wave and turned it into an HECS for parts of mid Atlantic. With the pattern and air mass advertised we’d likely need a well timed -intense closed ULL to get snow in early December. Something to keep an eye on

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47 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Just for shits and giggles... the 12z Euro & CMC both have a major cold blast at end of run, but both have a trailing shortwave. It’ll change anyway, but I’m getting my tracking boots ready. The 00z para GFS had that wave and turned it into an HECS for parts of mid Atlantic. With the pattern and air mass advertised we’d likely need a well timed -intense closed ULL to get snow in early December. Something to keep an eye on

Critical that the trailing wave arrive on the 5'th😎

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This is not a bad outcome (northern stream cold arrives first) as the previous full phasing would have Wreck Of Edmund Fitzgerald the track.  Still bleeds into the Euro's bias (which seems has either come back or become worse) of hanging energy too far back. The GGEM is still full boar on the phasing.  The GFS has its own progressive issues.

index.thumb.gif.95195a986ef98756568cd796665805ba.gif

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33 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

This is not a bad outcome (northern stream cold arrives first) as the previous full phasing would have Wreck Of Edmund Fitzgerald the track.  Still bleeds into the Euro's bias (which seems has either come back or become worse) of hanging energy too far back. The GGEM is still full boar on the phasing.  The GFS has its own progressive issues.

index.thumb.gif.95195a986ef98756568cd796665805ba.gif

Kicker hot on its heels on euro op, hard to discount that possibilty given fast Pac flow, I eas excited to see the cold air settle in but that southern slider and block to our north reminds me of the last early season Carolina/VA hits that missed us.  Are these winters on repeat?

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45 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

This is not a bad outcome (northern stream cold arrives first) as the previous full phasing would have Wreck Of Edmund Fitzgerald the track.  Still bleeds into the Euro's bias (which seems has either come back or become worse) of hanging energy too far back. The GGEM is still full boar on the phasing.  The GFS has its own progressive issues.

At this lead (day 7 through 9), EPS is an even better outcome

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_fh168-216.gif

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36 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

At this lead (day 7 through 9), EPS is an even better outcome

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_fh168-216.gif

I haven’t looked at the eps but I would bet that low pressure placement is very misleading. Would think looking at that H5 with how progressive it is with kicker behind it lots are a good bit offshore with a few big monster storms that cut or hug the coast that lead to the low pressure placement there. I would like to see a bit more northern stream phase with a better ridge out west to bring a better airmass In, but you can’t have to much phase or west it goes. So the general thread the needle 

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I haven’t looked at the eps but I would bet that low pressure placement is very misleading. Would think looking at that H5 with how progressive it is with kicker behind it lots are a good bit offshore with a few big monster storms that cut or hug the coast that lead to the low pressure placement there. I would like to see a bit more northern stream phase with a better ridge out west to bring a better airmass In, but you can’t have to much phase or west it goes. So the general thread the needle 

Perturbation 15 accounted for a chunk of this.  It also accounted for more snow than all of the other members combined.  30 was in that neighborhood too.

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53 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I haven’t looked at the eps but I would bet that low pressure placement is very misleading. Would think looking at that H5 with how progressive it is with kicker behind it lots are a good bit offshore with a few big monster storms that cut or hug the coast that lead to the low pressure placement there. I would like to see a bit more northern stream phase with a better ridge out west to bring a better airmass In, but you can’t have to much phase or west it goes. So the general thread the needle 

yeah to me looks like more of a threat for NC/VA mtns underneath upper low.  Still not bad for a lousy Nhemi pattern in early dec.

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