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2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.


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This is the first leg in what should be a four part wet week ending this Friday.

This was upright convection and unlike the fast moving convective lines that occur this time of year that don't sway pcpn amounts as much.  This one mattered more.  To that end the EPS came in first (it is nice to be both lucky and good).  At the other end of the spectrum came the new GFS.  It seems like with these events so far, the new GFS either has been hanging out at the opposite ends of the spectrum, either near the top or the bottom, but not average. It came in last. I know convection will sway these results, but it had this precipitation event (initially) staying southeast of us.

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/10 Convective Event. EPS The First Place Showing & New GFS Came In Last.
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We can't thank everyone enough about all the views we get for this thread. This past season the over 33,700 views was the most ever for any season and the most viewed short term thread of the entire c

Snow tab: 2020-21qpf.xlsx

euro 11/9 0z: 4 11/9 12z: 1.8 11/10 0z: 1.6 11/10 12z: 1.8 11/11 0z: 2.03 11/11 12z: 1.78 eps 11/9 0z: 2.15 11/9 12z: 1.85 11/10 0z: 1.9 11/10 12

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euro 

4/11 0z: .02

4/11 12z:.02

4/12 0z: .01

4/12 12z: .02

4/13 0z: .02

eps

4/11 0z: .2

4/11 12z: .06

4/12 0z: .06

4/12 12z: .04

4/13 0z: 0 

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The second leg of our four part system had upright convective contamination too.  Judging from the amounts from surrounding stations, the 1st and last place finishes would have been the same.  The wettest model (ECMWF) would have come in first at PNE also (less contamination) and the all over the place model (UKMET) would have come in last.  This was also a negative tilt system which is typically one of the instances where modeling underforecasts precipitation amounts convection or not.

 

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/11-4/12 Convective Event. The OP ECMWF Came In First & The UKMET Came In Last.
On 4/11/2021 at 8:12 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro 

4/11 0z: .02

4/11 12z:.02

4/12 0z: .01

4/12 12z: .02

eps

4/11 0z: .2

4/11 12z: .06

4/12 0z: .06

4/12 12z: .04

The Wednesday/Thursday event, can we start with the 12z run today, the 12th? If you see this soon enough, if we can catch the 00z run that would be good, but I will match you with what you catch.

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On 4/11/2021 at 8:12 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro 

4/11 0z: .02

4/11 12z:.02

4/12 0z: .01

4/12 12z: .02

eps

4/11 0z: .2

4/11 12z: .06

4/12 0z: .06

4/12 12z: .04

Ok we can sneak in the 00z/13th run as the rain started after 8 pm.

For Wed/Thu as far back as you can go, I will match.

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euro

4/12 12z: .61

4/13 0z: .38

4/13 12z: .28

4/14 0z: .24

4/14 12z: .12

eps

4/12 12z: 1

4/13 0z: .56

4/13 12z: .37

4/14 0z: .32

4/14 12z: .21

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The third leg in our four legged wet event pattern resulted in a nearly perfect first place finish for the ECMWF.  This one was a question of where to put the axis of heavier rain.  Most OP runs did a good job (not as good as the ECMWF) of placing it north. Here the ensembles suffered in offering the uncertainty and possible other solutions. So the uncertainty award and last place finish goes to the GEFS.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/13 Event. The OP ECMWF Came In First Again & The WEFS Last.
  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/14-4/15 Event. Miller B For The Win, All Models For The Loss.

It was not pretty.  Good thing this was not February.  On the other hand I have seen more of these rocks (it is more often rain, so people pay less attention) in March & April than in winter.

This event continues the Drag Corollary: You Have To Have The GGEM On Board. Yes it was not perfect, but it was drier. At the opposite end of the spectrum the modeling family that has a tendency to overdo these events too quickly (Euro) came in last. The EPS must have had some really wound up members. This goes to show you too that New England does not suffer from Miller B storms as we do.

 

 

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On 4/13/2021 at 12:07 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/12 12z: .61

4/13 0z: .38

4/13 12z: .28

4/14 0z: .24

4/14 12z: .12

eps

4/12 12z: 1

4/13 0z: .56

4/13 12z: .37

4/14 0z: .32

4/14 12z: .21

Monday Afternoon/Evening, can we start with the 00z run this morning?  I realize we are not there yet (well GEFS is 0.01" away), but I am not going to be around much the rest of this weekend and if a rogue run (there will be one) that goes over 0.1", we won't be able to look back.

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euro

4/17 0z: .15

4/17 12z: .1

4/18 0z: .11

4/18 12z: .01

4/19 0z: 0

4/19 12z: .01

eps

4/17 0z: .06

4/17 12z: .05

4/18 0z: .06

4/18 12z: .03

4/19 0z: .02

4/19 12z: .01

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Monday Afternoon/Evening, can we start with the 00z run this morning?  I realize we are not there yet (well GEFS is 0.01" away), but I am not going to be around much the rest of this weekend and if a rogue run (there will be one) that goes over 0.1", we won't be able to look back.

no need, 0z euro already crossed it 

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euro

4/19 12z: .39

4/20 0z: .15

4/20 12z: .11

4/21 0z:  .03

4/21 12z: .13

eps

4/19 12z: .29

4/20 0z: .2

4/20 12z: .3

4/21 0z: .1

4/21 12z: .15

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Well ladies and gentlemen, another event where the Drag Corollary holds.  The GGEM came in first by never forecasting measurable at PHL in its six closest runs leading into this event.  It did have measurable south of PHL, so it did not ignore that impulse or precipitation surrounding PHL. The Euro which sounds vaguely familiar to last year is limping toward the close with a last place finish. The GGEM has measurable for today.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/19 Non PHL Event. The Drag Corollary Holds Again.
On 4/19/2021 at 6:18 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/19 12z: .39

4/20 0z: .15

4/20 12z: .11

4/21 0z:  .03

4/21 12z: .13

eps

4/19 12z: .29

4/20 0z: .2

4/20 12z: .3

4/21 0z: .1

4/21 12z: .15

We can start the weekend system with the 00z run this morning (23rd).  Going to end this comparison with the end of April.  We good with that ending?

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Another (convective) event and another April event in which the EC family is limping toward the finish line. Yes convection can mar the results further and why we don't bother with warm season evaluations.  This was not a case where Philadelphia was terribly unrepresentative.  All the big climo sites had less than .10" and the NJ Cocorahs roundup 87% of the stations had less than 0.20".  The new GFS eked out a first place finish and the EPS finished last.  Another unimpressive showing by the UKMET.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/21 Convective Event. New GFS Comes In 1st; Struggling In April EC Family Member Comes In Last.
10 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

We can start the weekend system with the 00z run this morning (23rd).  Going to end this comparison with the end of April.  We good with that ending?

0z 23rd or 22nd? Yes ending is fine?

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euro

4/22 0z:  .92

4/22 12z: .86

4/23 0z: 1.24

4/23 12z: .49

4/24 0z: .57

4/24 12z: .62

eps

4/22 0z: .73

4/22 12z: .9

4/23 0z: .77

4/23 12z: .59

4/24 0z: .56

4/24 12z: .6

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On 4/22/2021 at 5:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/22 0z:  .92

4/22 12z: .86

4/23 0z: 1.24

4/23 12z: .49

eps

4/22 0z: .73

4/22 12z: .9

4/23 0z: .77

4/23 12z: .59

00z tonight, if I get my days straight this time, 00z/25th last run we will need.

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The Euro wishes we would have stopped at the end of March, instead of the end of April.  It is now 3 out of the last 4 events where some member of the Euro family came in last, this time it was the OP.  Most of the damage was done with the first couple of forecasts which in typical European bias fashion tracked a stronger than actual low too far to the northwest. Another rule of thumb which still works (not as well as last season), if you are wetter than the GEFS, you lose. The GEFS had an uncanny three perfect qpf(s) for PHL and came in first.  One more event left before we close the books on this cool season evaluation.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Penultimate 4/25 Event. GEFS Came In First; Struggling Euro Family Came In Last.
On 4/22/2021 at 5:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/22 0z:  .92

4/22 12z: .86

4/23 0z: 1.24

4/23 12z: .49

4/24 0z: .57

4/24 12z: .62

eps

4/22 0z: .73

4/22 12z: .9

4/23 0z: .77

4/23 12z: .59

4/24 0z: .56

4/24 12z: .6

The Wed//Thu system is confusing me. Let me take a look at how best to do it.

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.

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