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2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.


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The GFS is going to have a good week.  It started out with the best qpf for this event.  Not often the GEFS nearly comes in last place by being too dry.  It will come much closer than the other models with this min Barney shot tonight/Tuesday morning.  The UKMET came in last with a dry bias forecast until the last run we evaluated before rain started again.

This is the third event in a row in which a secondary low pumped up the qpf volume and there were more models/ensembles that were too dry than too wet.

Speaking of good week for the GFS, it always had the Wednesday system south of us and now all of the other models have joined it.

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 2/28-3/1 Event. GFS Says You Will Miss Me When I Am Gone & Comes In 1st; UKMET Last.
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We can't thank everyone enough about all the views we get for this thread. This past season the over 33,700 views was the most ever for any season and the most viewed short term thread of the entire c

Snow tab: 2020-21qpf.xlsx

euro 11/9 0z: 4 11/9 12z: 1.8 11/10 0z: 1.6 11/10 12z: 1.8 11/11 0z: 2.03 11/11 12z: 1.78 eps 11/9 0z: 2.15 11/9 12z: 1.85 11/10 0z: 1.9 11/10 12

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On 2/24/2021 at 6:16 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

2/24 0z: .33

2/24 12z: .54

2/25 0z: .4

2/25 12z: .37

2/26 0z: .43

2/26 12z: .52 snow .1

2/27 0z: .33 snow .6

 

eps

2/24 0z: .41

2/24 12z: .39 snow .1

2/25 0z: .38

2/25 12z: .32

2/26 0z:  .32 

2/26 12z: .45 snow .2

2/27 0z: .33 snow .6

 

Sunday

euro

2/25 12z: .68

2/26 0z: .92

2/26 12z: .9

2/27 0z:  .8

2/27 12z: .87

2/28 0z: 1.19

eps

2/25 12z: .57

2/26 0z: .76

2/26 12z: .75

2/27 0z: .78

2/27 12z: .93

2/28 0z: 1.03

Friday CFP sorry for the late notice, can we start with the 12z run yesterday, the 9th?

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11 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Friday CFP sorry for the late notice, can we start with the 12z run yesterday, the 9th?

Missed this, so not sure if you want to start with 0z?

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euro

3/10 0z: .09

3/10 12z: .07

3/11 0z:  .06

3/11 12z: .14

3/12 0z: 0

eps

3/10 0z: .09

3/10 12z: .08

3/11 0z: .06

3/11 12z: .08

3/12 0z: .02

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The pattern of this cold season, if you don't have the GGEM on board and if you are wetter than the GEFS, not a good place.  So with an overnight CFP (think of tstms dying in the summer), the driest model prevailed and that was the GGEM.  You'd expect ensembles to suffer in a low qpf event regime and the EPS came in last.

 

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 3/12 Non-Event. GGEM Came In 1st, Rare Last Place Finish For The EPS.
On 3/10/2021 at 6:44 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/10 0z: .09

3/10 12z: .07

3/11 0z:  .06

3/11 12z: .14

3/12 0z: 0

eps

3/10 0z: .09

3/10 12z: .08

3/11 0z: .06

3/11 12z: .08

3/12 0z: .02

We can start the Tue/Wed event with 00z run tonight, the 14th.

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euro

3/14 0z: .07 snow .2

3/14 12z: .11 snow .2

3/15 0z: .08

3/15 12z: .09 snow .1

3/16 0z: .09 snow .2

3/16 12z: .08

eps

3/14 0z: .08  snow .2

3/14 12z: .12  snow .2

3/15 0z: .12 snow .2

3/15 12z: .09 snow .2

3/16 0z: .08 snow .2

3/16 12z: .08  snow .2

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On 3/14/2021 at 6:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/14 0z: .07 snow .2

3/14 12z: .11 snow .2

3/15 0z: .08

3/15 12z: .09 snow .1

eps

3/14 0z: .08  snow .2

3/14 12z: .12  snow .2

3/15 0z: .12 snow .2

3/15 12z: .09 snow .2

12z run today, the 16th can be the last.

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On 3/14/2021 at 6:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/14 0z: .07 snow .2

3/14 12z: .11 snow .2

3/15 0z: .08

3/15 12z: .09 snow .1

eps

3/14 0z: .08  snow .2

3/14 12z: .12  snow .2

3/15 0z: .12 snow .2

3/15 12z: .09 snow .2

Whoops just checked the next one.  We can end this one with the 12z run today (16th) & we can start the next one with the 12z run today too.

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euro

3/16 12z: 1.58

3/17 0z: 1.48 snow .4

3/17 12z: 1.73

3/18 0z: 1.48

eps

3/16 12z: 1.5  snow .6

3/17 0z: 1.59 snow .9

3/17 12z: 1.66 snow .6

3/18 0z: 1.24   snow .1

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The GFS saved its best for last.  From the Cheyenne snowfall prediction being spot on (for around 30" no less) to a lesser victory here.  It was the only model/ensemble to become drier to go time and while they were all too wet, it was the least wet of the bunch. Bringing up the rear were the GEFS.  The running theme to look at next season is what does the GGEM have for snow.  If it don't have it, well forget about it worked this season.  Yeah there was some snow showers/sleet showers/graupel around yesterday, but highest I could find on CoCoRahs anywhere in the greater Philadelphia Metropolitan area was 0.2".

This next event the GFS is crossing versions, every event after this is the new version.

 

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 3/16 Event. The GFS Goes Out A Winner. The GEFS Comes In Last On Both Sides.
On 3/16/2021 at 6:26 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/16 12z: 1.58

3/17 0z: 1.48 snow .4

3/17 12z: 1.73

3/18 0z: 1.48

eps

3/16 12z: 1.5  snow .6

3/17 0z: 1.59 snow .9

3/17 12z: 1.66 snow .6

3/18 0z: 1.24   snow .1

Yeah, just four with this one, rain is arriving, 00z the last.

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The GFS is saying why or why. I could have gone out a winner. Just like an aging athlete that hangs around too long.  Ok well it is still the GFS.

The rule of thumb works most of the time, if you are wetter than the GEFS you lose.  GFS, you lose. Last place. The GEFS came in first by being least wettest.  On the snow side, the ECMWF had a Dr. No experience, it forecast the least amount of snow and came in first. The GFS came in last.

I have been subjectively looking at the new GFS. Don't worry, it won't cheat you on Cybersnow.  Its 850mb cold bias gets worse closest to verification time, not a recipe for underforecasting snow.

As we get into this time of year, it is a valid point that the snow can fall from the sky but struggle to accumulate. This event, it was not the case. It never snowed in PHL and in Providence it changed to snow the last hour before it ended with 10 mile visibilities.

 

 

 

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 3/18-3/19 Event. GFS Wishes Upgrade Would Have Occurred On Time. Came In Last On Both Sides. ECMWF Back As Dr. No.

euro

3/22 0z: .5

3/22 12z: .08

3/23 0z: .6

3/23 12z: .9

3/24 0z: 1.95

3/24 12z:  1.27

eps

3/22 0z: .6

3/22 12z: .39

3/23 0z: .4

3/23 12z: .64

3/24 0z: 1.5

3/24 12z:  1.1

Friday

euro

3/23 0z: .17

3/23 12z: .07

3/24 0z: .11

3/24 12z: .04

3/25 0z: .08

3/25 12z: .03

eps

3/23 0z: .09

3/23 12z: .12

3/24 0z: .08

3/24 12z: .1

3/25 0z: .11

3/25 12z: .12

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On 3/22/2021 at 6:11 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/22 0z: .5

3/22 12z: .08

3/23 0z: .6

3/23 12z: .9

eps

3/22 0z: .6

3/22 12z: .39

3/23 0z: .4

3/23 12z: .64

Friday

euro

3/23 0z: .17

3/23 12z: .07

eps

3/23 0z: .09

3/23 12z: .12

12z run last one for today's event.  I will let you know about Sunday as long as I don't fall asleep again.  New GFS not off to a consistent start.

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On 3/22/2021 at 6:11 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/22 0z: .5

3/22 12z: .08

3/23 0z: .6

3/23 12z: .9

3/24 0z: 1.95

3/24 12z:  1.27

eps

3/22 0z: .6

3/22 12z: .39

3/23 0z: .4

3/23 12z: .64

3/24 0z: 1.5

3/24 12z:  1.1

Friday

euro

3/23 0z: .17

3/23 12z: .07

 

3/24 0z: .11

3/24 12z: .04

eps

3/23 0z: .09

3/23 12z: .12

3/24 0z: .08

3/24 12z: .1

We can start Sunday with today's day run.

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Well, it did not come in last. So it had that going for it. The GEFS did. The GGEM which latched onto the correct idea of this low coming farther northwest sooner won. This was the first event since February 7th that every model/ensemble was too dry.  To coin my dad, if this was snow we would have received twice of what the models were forecasting.

Better luck with the next event.  The 00z run on the 22nd was the previous version GFS.

 

 

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Inaugural New GFS 3/24 Event. GGEM Came In 1st, GEFS Came In Last.

euro

3/25 12z: .84

3/26 0z: .94 

3/26 12z: .83

3/27 0z: .6

3/27 12z: .49

3/28 0z: .55

eps

3/25 12z: .66

3/26 0z: .66 

3/26 12z: .91

3/27 0z: .72

3/27 12z: .68

3/28 0z: .62

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.

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