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2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.


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This is the 2nd time (out of 16 events so far) that the UKMET came in 1st and the first significant precip event.  The other one was a 0.00 event.  I believe also this marks the first event in which the Op ECMWF came in last and the first event in which neither Euro family did well with an event.  They were too dry.  The too wet GGEM (surprised?) prevented this from being only the second event so far that all of the evaluated models/ensembles averaged too dry.  

I didn't do a snow side. This was the second event in which the GEFS and the GEFS alone predicted (rain changing to.....)some measurable snow.  If they wanted to add uncertainty, they seriously should be happy.

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 12/24-25 Event. A Different Twist: The UKMET 1st & Op ECMWF Last.
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We can't thank everyone enough about all the views we get for this thread. This past season the over 33,700 views was the most ever for any season and the most viewed short term thread of the entire c

Snow tab: 2020-21qpf.xlsx

euro 11/9 0z: 4 11/9 12z: 1.8 11/10 0z: 1.6 11/10 12z: 1.8 11/11 0z: 2.03 11/11 12z: 1.78 eps 11/9 0z: 2.15 11/9 12z: 1.85 11/10 0z: 1.9 11/10 12

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On 12/21/2020 at 7:02 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/21 12z: 1.03

12/22 0z: 1.33

12/22 12z:  1.23

12/23 0z: 1.25

12/23 12z: 1.39

12/24 0z: .98

12/24 12z: 1.08

eps

12/21 12z: 1.14

12/22 0z: 1.13

12/22 12z: 1.26

12/23 0z: 1.46

12/23 12z: 1.37

12/24 0z: 1.21

12/24 12z: 1.18

There looks like a (I think it will happen) break in the precip is developing around New Years Eve/Day.  There is the shower shot with the CFP and then 6-12 hrs of nothing before precip associated with the low itself comes back into the area.

Can we divide this into two parts?  The CFP pcpn start with the 12z run today (28th) and end it around 00z/1st, Thursday evening.  The second part with the low itself we probably will have to wait for the 12z run tomorrow (29th).

 

 

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euro

12/31 12z: .19

1/1 0z: .38  snow .4

1/1 12z:  .36 

1/2 0z: .51 

1/2 12z: .62 snow .2

1/3 0z: .39

eps

12/31 12z: .43 snow .3

1/1 0z: .48 snow .1

1/1 12z: .38 snow .1

1/2 0z:  .46 snow .1

1/2 12z: .55 snow .1

1/3 0z: .42 snow .1

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On 12/31/2020 at 6:42 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/31 12z: .19

eps

12/31 12z: .43 snow .3

New Years Day event we can include the 1/1 12z run.  Early Happy New Year!!!! 🍸🍺🍷  2020, don't let the door hit you on the way out....

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Wrong time for the OP EC to start slumping as we are heading into January.  This is the second straight event in which it came in last.  This was more of a placement error than a total qpf brain freeze.  There was a band of heavier rain (associated with this short wave) that remained northwest of PHL and the CAN GGEM did the best job at overall placing it while the OP EC leaned too far to the southeast.  Regardless you are what your record says you are.  If today's (1/1) event runs on the drier side, the OP EC may be back in first place.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Fast & Furious Events: Part I, 12/31 Event. GGEM Came In 1st, 2nd Event In A Row OP ECMWF Came In Last.

It did not take long for the OP EC to go from the penthouse to the outhouse.  The third consecutive event it came in last.  Like a poor schlep (who me?) on the golf course where the drives are going too left and too right, you don't know where to aim, the OP EC is missing by being either too dry or too wet. Harder to have confidence in it with tomorrow's event.  Meanwhile, the new hot model has been the GGEM, 2nd straight event in which it came in 1st place.  It is wetter than all the other models going into tomorrow, we will see if its hot streak continues because that would be a higher end outcome for places where it does snow.

rain.JPG.663ff7cd7e3315297ee62babcd61918b.JPG

past24.png.b5de93d36cd36a2eaec707fabb3e51d5.png

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Fast & Furious Events: Part II, 1/1 Event. GGEM Started The New Year With Another Win, Meanwhile Slumping OP ECMWF Came In Last 3rd Event In A Row.
On 12/31/2020 at 6:42 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/31 12z: .19

1/1 0z: .38  snow .4

1/1 12z:  .36 

1/2 0z: .51 

1/2 12z: .62 snow .2

1/3 0z: .39

eps

12/31 12z: .43 snow .3

1/1 0z: .48 snow .1

1/1 12z: .38 snow .1

1/2 0z:  .46 snow .1

1/2 12z: .55 snow .1

1/3 0z: .42 snow .1

I don't see anything heavy enough to warrant a Monday night/Tuesday evaluation event at this point.  Looks like the next probable event would be the high volatility one Friday nightish. 

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I don't see anything heavy enough to warrant a Monday night/Tuesday evaluation event at this point.  Looks like the next probable event would be the high volatility one Friday nightish. 

give the gfs some time for tuesday it won't let you down

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35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

give the gfs some time for tuesday it won't let you down

Yeah I was going to ask you to start it. 18z went to .11”. If you can go back to 12z yesterday (2nd) great. If it’s 00z this morning, I will blame the GFS.  I can’t wait til they show this nickel and dime for 24 consecutive hour version of this model the door.

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18 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Yeah I was going to ask you to start it. 18z went to .11”. If you can go back to 12z yesterday (2nd) great. If it’s 00z this morning, I will blame the GFS.  I can’t wait til they show this nickel and dime for 24 consecutive hour version of this model the door.

I thought you were only counting 0z and 12z runs not off hour ones 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I thought you were only counting 0z and 12z runs not off hour ones 

I just figure it is going to do it at 00z.

Edit: Ok it got religion for one run, we hold off. I don’t know how it pulled off the win last season.

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This is how errors go down the drain when they are rain.  This was one of the worse qpf performances by all the models with any event this cold season. Because it was rain and not snow, all I am hearing are crickets. If anything because some snow or sleet fell northwest of PHL the perception may be the opposite. The faster and heavier onset did the trick, but this hid the fact that the overall pcpn amounts with this system were rather meager for a low coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico.

Why?  Guessing had to do with the positive tilt trof and maybe Gulf Coast convection might have robbed deeper moisture from getting farther north. As my dad used to say "if this was snow" a warning event would have verified as a low end advisory event.  Only the EC & EPS would have kept the forecast in "advisory range" albeit still too heavy.

So the OP EC was the best of the worst while the GGEM went from first to last.  Caution needed with the wet bias GGEM if the surface low is not passing thru PHL's CWA. There was more than one run with double digit snows on it.

 

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Fast & Furious Events: Part III, 1/3 Event. Come For The Warning, Get An Advisory: Op EC Best Of The Worst, Snowy/Soggy GGEM Last.
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On 1/13/2021 at 7:27 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/13 12z: .14

1/14 0z:  .53

1/14 12z: .46

1/15 0z: .41

eps

1/13 12z: .37

1/14 0z: .48

1/14 12z: .44

1/15 0z: .38

Yeah make the 12z run today the last one. It started too soon to include 00z this evening.

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The vacation is over and with the PNA rolling negative we are not going to have a 13 day break any time soon. 

Anyway this is one that the EPS won, but the models were pretty tight.  The wettest GGEM came in last.  They all had the secondary forming and it was just a question of ramping up the precip which they all did too quickly.  The GFS beyond 84hrs out was too dry.

 

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Remember Us? The 1/15-16 The Vacation Is Over Event. The EPS Did Not Skip A Beat & Came In 1st. The Too Soggy GGEM Came In Last Again.

euro

1/23 12z: .15 snow .6

1/24 0z: .25 snow .7

1/24 12z: .24 snow .3

1/25 0z: .28 snow 1"

1/25 12z: .53 snow 1.7

1/26 0z: .24 snow .4

eps

1/23 12z: .27  snow 1.8

1/24 0z: .36 snow 2.2

1/24 12z: .31 snow 1

1/25 0z: .42 snow 1.8

1/25 12z: .39 snow 1.1

1/26 0z: .29 snow .7

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  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.

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