Jump to content

2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 231
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We can't thank everyone enough about all the views we get for this thread. This past season the over 33,700 views was the most ever for any season and the most viewed short term thread of the entire c

Snow tab: 2020-21qpf.xlsx

euro 11/9 0z: 4 11/9 12z: 1.8 11/10 0z: 1.6 11/10 12z: 1.8 11/11 0z: 2.03 11/11 12z: 1.78 eps 11/9 0z: 2.15 11/9 12z: 1.85 11/10 0z: 1.9 11/10 12

Posted Images

There was some similarity between this and the next event.  Both had similar trofs across the central conus.  This event the trof sheared out faster than what is predicted with the Wed/Thu event.  The models started too far SE in some instances and then backed the rain northwest. There were issues with snow including what looked like an algorithm brain freeze on WB having it snow with 1C 850(s). Nothing beat the GFS's dynamic cooling 6"+ for Ocean County.

On the qpf side though no denying it has been the EC family season so far with other models struggling, yeah we are talking to you GFS. Snowwise it was the UKMET & GGEM that never wavered as snowless in PHL.  This upcoming event they have been at opposite ends though with the UKMET persistently the least snowiest while the GGEM has been pretty snowy (although the GEPS have not).

 

past48.png

snow.JPG

wet.JPG

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 12/14 Prequil. EC First, GEFS Last; UKIE & GGEM Owned The Snow.

euro

12/14 0z: 1.51 snow 14.1

12/14 12z: 1.53 snow 15.1

12/15 0z: 1.29 snow 9.2

12/15 12z: 1.25 snow 8.3

12/16 0z: 1.25 snow 7.8

12/16 12z: 1.5 snow 9.3

eps

12/14 0z: 1.31 snow 8.3

12/14 12z: 1.23 snow 7.5

12/15 0z:1.36 snow 7

12/15 12z: 1.29 snow 6.6

12/16 0z: 1.33  snow 7.2

12/16 12z: 1.31 snow 6.1

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/14 0z: 1.51 snow 14.1

12/14 12z: 1.53 snow 15.1

12/15 0z: 1.29 snow 9.2

12/15 12z: 1.25 snow 8.3

12/16 0z: 1.25 snow 7.8

12/16 12z: 1.5 snow 9.3

eps

12/14 0z: 1.31 snow 8.3

12/14 12z: 1.23 snow 7.5

12/15 0z:1.36 snow 7

12/15 12z: 1.29 snow 6.6

12/16 0z: 1.33  snow 7.2

12/16 12z: 1.31 snow 6.1

EPS is going to be competitive.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

For what's it worth ICON may be the winner my way 🤔.

This should be added the the IMMENSE Wall of Shame for the GFS...

3 days of stubborn leading up to a storm.

CR.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/16/2020 at 11:31 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

@tombo82685, let's go thru 12z today.

This is not the whole, (a couple of more inches north), but still curious

3.JPG.6bcab1f93858c43537f2b3198dc1199a.JPG

Better to be lucky then good with some members having banding farther to the east it was pretty good for the local PHL area and SW NJ.  Then too heavy N & W and not heavy enough (no one was) up in BGM.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have done this evaluation for years and while the EPS normally does pretty good, I have not seen a runaway as it has been this cold season (so far).  This is now 8 out of 13 pcpn events in which the EPS was first and another event it was tied for first.  Paradoxically on the snow side it was the operational ECMWF that came in last.  We can talk about snow charts, but you know what come up with better algorithms.  BUFKIT can. This is not the first rodeo (New England, Monday) in which the OP ECMWF has been living at the 95th percentile.  The GFS was not much better with snow and its over the top qpf placed it in last.  While qpf was too high throughout our CWA it is becoming impossible to throw out just use the pwat for the 12hr pcpn amount segments after what occurred in ALB & BGM.  BTW on some discussion boards, those ratios were close to 10:1, some all snow spots in Connecticut were <10:1. 

past48.png.bce2424b2c85d43dbbdbecc23fe99888.png

 

eps.JPG

snowww.JPG

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 12/16-17 Evaluation In! Its All About The EPS, EPS, No Treble.
On 12/16/2020 at 9:10 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/14 0z: 1.51 snow 14.1

12/14 12z: 1.53 snow 15.1

12/15 0z: 1.29 snow 9.2

12/15 12z: 1.25 snow 8.3

12/16 0z: 1.25 snow 7.8

12/16 12z: 1.5 snow 9.3

eps

12/14 0z: 1.31 snow 8.3

12/14 12z: 1.23 snow 7.5

12/15 0z:1.36 snow 7

12/15 12z: 1.29 snow 6.6

12/16 0z: 1.33  snow 7.2

12/16 12z: 1.31 snow 6.1

This moved up in time: Sunday-Monday.  Can we start with the 00z run this morning?  (18th).

Link to post
Share on other sites

euro

12/18 0z: .01

12/18 12z: .02

12/19 0z: .01

12/19 12z: .05 snow .02

12/20 0z: .04 snow .2

12/20 12z: .03 snow .2

eps

12/18 0z: .04

12/18 12z: .04

12/19 0z: .03

12/19 12z: .05 snow .02

12/20 0z: .04 snow .3

12/20 12z: .03 snow .1

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/18/2020 at 8:57 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/18 0z: .01

12/18 12z: .02

12/19 0z: .01

12/19 12z: .05 snow .02

eps

12/18 0z: .04

12/18 12z: .04

12/19 0z: .03

12/19 12z: .05 snow .02

Two favors.  I knew the GFS was going to do this.

First with this one can we go through the 12z run today (20th).

Second yeah Monday night/Tuesday, can you go back to the 12z run yesterday (19th).  If not I'll take what you can.

Thank-you.  :)

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Aside from one really really bad (see maps) GGEM run, the models were ok with this event.  They concentrated southeast of the city and it worked.  Since it is 2020-21 it has to be some member of the EC that did the best and this time it was the OP EC.  GGEM unlucky with qpf, but better with snow, it had the least predicted for PHL and was closest.  The UKMET is showing itself to not be a Mensa with snowfall predictions, came in last again.  This was not a case of the correct predicted snow "fell" and melted, PHL traced out with precipitation total also.

 

 

rain.JPG

snow.JPG

past24.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/19 12z: .03

12/20 0z: .02

12/20 12z: .09

eps

12/19 12z: .04

12/20 0z: .05

12/20 12: .07

We can go thru the 00z tonight (22nd) with this one.  I know you like doubling up on events.  We can start the Christmas Eve event with the 12z run today (21st).

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 12/20 Event. GGEM Unlucky With Precip, Better With Snow. Another EC Family 1st Place QPF Finish.

euro

12/21 12z: 1.03

12/22 0z: 1.33

12/22 12z:  1.23

12/23 0z: 1.25

12/23 12z: 1.39

12/24 0z: .98

12/24 12z: 1.08

eps

12/21 12z: 1.14

12/22 0z: 1.13

12/22 12z: 1.26

12/23 0z: 1.46

12/23 12z: 1.37

12/24 0z: 1.21

12/24 12z: 1.18

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS may be able to get a pizza box slogan pretty soon with regard to QPF:  "Now that you have looked at the rest, look at the best."  It would make this cold season a whole lot easier just going straight to it.  In reality all the models were close, there was not a GGEM 1.25" brain freeze run with this one.  But someone has to come in 1st (The EPS) and someone has to come in last (The UKMET). 

 

eps.JPG

past48.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Rainshadow23.0 changed the title to 2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Snowfall Evaluation For The 2020-21 Season Posted.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...