2020-21 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 4/21 Convective Event. New GFS Comes In 1st; Struggling In April EC Family Member Comes In Last.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 3/25/2021 at 6:45 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/25 12z: .84

3/26 0z: .94 

3/26 12z: .83

eps

3/25 12z: .66

3/26 0z: .66 

3/26 12z: .91

3/28/00z can be the last with this one.  Similar to the last event, starting right around next model start time.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

Well the new GFS should be sending the GEFS flowers, both events since its implementation the GEFS saved it from a last place finish.  The UKMET with the driest solution came in 1st.  The next event the Ukie looks destined for either a 1st or last place finish. 

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 3/25/2021 at 6:45 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/25 12z: .84

3/26 0z: .94 

3/26 12z: .83

3/27 0z: .6

3/27 12z: .49

3/28 0z: .55

eps

3/25 12z: .66

3/26 0z: .66 

3/26 12z: .91

3/27 0z: .72

3/27 12z: .68

3/28 0z: .62

Wednesday/Thursday event if we can start with the 00z run this morning (29th)? 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

Well, a very good event for the new GFS.  Much more consistency in the sounding runs (which started too dry) for the two previous events. Given there were convective elements with this one, maybe this one could be better than the previous GFS which was often too dry in scenarios like this.  As suspected, the UKMET with its superfluous qpf thudded into last place.  A wet bias model standing alone is not a very comfortable position to be.

 

[tombo82685 14,274]

euro

3/29 0z: 1.33

3/29 12z: 1.42

3/30 0z: 1.05

3/30 12z: 1.35

3/31 0z: .53

3/31 12z: 1.23

eps

3/29 0z: .84

3/29 12z: 1.09

3/30 0z: 1.04

3/30 12z: 1.11

3/31 0z: .66

3/31 12z: 1

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 3/29/2021 at 9:53 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/29 0z: 1.33

3/29 12z: 1.42

3/30 0z: 1.05

3/30 12z: 1.35

eps

3/29 0z: .84

3/29 12z: 1.09

3/30 0z: 1.04

3/30 12z: 1.11

Yeah we can go thru 12z tomorrow (31st). 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 3/29/2021 at 9:53 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/29 0z: 1.33

3/29 12z: 1.42

3/30 0z: 1.05

3/30 12z: 1.35

3/31 0z: .53

3/31 12z: 1.23

eps

3/29 0z: .84

3/29 12z: 1.09

3/30 0z: 1.04

3/30 12z: 1.11

3/31 0z: .66

3/31 12z: 1

Welp new GFS in trouble with this one unless pcpn stops now. 0.84" at PHL already.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

Come early May we will do the big look back and see how the models did as far as second place.  This was really the cool season for the EPS which unless I am forgetting many events should come in first place.  The race for second and for last will be interesting.

Off the top of my head, neither the GGEM or UKMET have been gee whiz models this season either.

Case in point with this event where they were too bullish on the warm conveyor belt precipitation early and (over)corrected too late.  The OP EC was too west also, but was more accurate (or less extreme).  A criticism I have read about the new GFS has been its more run to run inconsistency, even though with this event, the PHL predicted pcpn amounts were pretty steady, albeit too light.  It ended with a solid second place finish.

In the end it was the EPS that came in 1st and the UKMET will need a rescue boat event it was predicting to try to motor its way out of another last place finish with the next event.

Just before go time for the EC & GFS:

 

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 3/29/2021 at 9:53 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/29 0z: 1.33

3/29 12z: 1.42

3/30 0z: 1.05

3/30 12z: 1.35

3/31 0z: .53

3/31 12z: 1.23

eps

3/29 0z: .84

3/29 12z: 1.09

3/30 0z: 1.04

3/30 12z: 1.11

3/31 0z: .66

3/31 12z: 1

We can start the Wednesday event with the 12z run today.  I have been eyeballing Tuesday morning, but it looks like it has been either south of PHL and/or not much at all. 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

6 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

We can start the Wednesday event with the 12z run today.  I have been eyeballing Tuesday morning, but it looks like it has been either south of PHL and/or not much at all. 

@tombo82685, I was afraid of this.  Yeah the WEFS just hit 0.10" for Tuesday.  I don't know how many previous versions of the ECMWF you can grab, but I will match you with the other models.  12z yesterday, the 3rd would be as far back as we need to go.

Yes and also start Wednesday with the 12z run today.

[tombo82685 14,274]

tuesday

euro

4/4 0z: 0

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

 

eps

4/4 0z: .02

4/4 12z: .01

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

wednesday

euro

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: .2

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: .08

4/6 12z: .09

4/7 0z: .04

eps

4/4 12z: .06

4/5 0z: .09

4/5 12z: .04

4/6 0z: .06

4/6 12z: .05

4/7 0z: .02

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 4/4/2021 at 5:55 PM, tombo82685 said:

tuesday

euro

4/4 0z: 0

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: 0

4/15 12z: 0

eps

4/4 0z: .02

4/4 12z: .01

4/5 0z: 0

4/15 12z: 0

wednesday

euro

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: .2

4/15 12z: 0

eps

4/4 12z: .06

4/5 0z: .09

4/15 12z: .04

00z run on the 6th can be the last one for Tuesday "event".  UKMET is going to be missing from this, some snafu with getting data in.

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 4/4/2021 at 5:55 PM, tombo82685 said:

tuesday

euro

4/4 0z: 0

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

 

eps

4/4 0z: .02

4/4 12z: .01

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

wednesday

euro

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: .2

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: .08

4/6 12z: .09

eps

4/4 12z: .06

4/5 0z: .09

4/5 12z: .04

4/6 0z: .06

4/6 12z: .05

Make the 4/7/00z run the last one for this.  Tricky as to a last run, but the ones that have measurable have it getting in before 12z or shortly thereafter.  I will let you know about the next one, we will be busy.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

UKMET was not available for every sounding run and not evaluated.

Disappointing poor performance for the new GFS.  Yeah the WEFy WEFS saved it from a last place finish again.  You don't have the GGEM & ECMWF on board with measurable pcpn (they tied for 1st), you are in trouble.

Like tomorrow's possible event, this was a triple conundrum to resolve as the band of predicted precip was narrow.  First would the precip survive from the Great Lakes. Second, if it did, where would it go and how much would fall.  Can't even give the GFS credit on a misplaced event as Wilmington traced out and the highest measurable in the entire state of Delaware was 0.03" in Blackbird.

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 4/4/2021 at 5:55 PM, tombo82685 said:

tuesday

euro

4/4 0z: 0

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

 

eps

4/4 0z: .02

4/4 12z: .01

4/5 0z: 0

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: 0

wednesday

euro

4/4 12z: 0

4/5 0z: .2

4/5 12z: 0

4/6 0z: .08

4/6 12z: .09

eps

4/4 12z: .06

4/5 0z: .09

4/5 12z: .04

4/6 0z: .06

4/6 12z: .05

The next one(s) we can hold off for now. It may be hard to do a start/end. but for now the GFS has dropped Saturday as a separate event, dropped it entirely.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

@tombo82685, I just looked at the 12z Euro. Scratch that remark. The EPS crosses the threshold.  So, with the 12z run today let's go thru 00z/Sunday 8pm/Saturday with that warm frontal pcpn shot and then separate the next event on Sunday(?).

[tombo82685 14,274]

euro

4/7 12z: .08

4/8 0z: .17

4/8 12z: .11

4/9 0z: .16

4/9 12z: .13

eps

4/7 12z: .2

4/8 0z: .17

4/8 12z: .15

4/9 0z: .22

4/9 12z: .17

Sunday

euro

4/8 12z: .73

4/9 0z: .88

4/9 12z: .7

4/10 0z: 1.03

4/10 12z: .98

4/11 0z: .77

eps

4/8 12z: .65

4/9 0z: .59

4/9 12z: .62

4/10 0z: .98

4/10 12z: .75

4/11 0z: .91

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

Like Tueday's "event" yesterday was a triple conundrum to resolve. The band of predicted precip was not as narrow as the modeling depicted.  First would the precip survive from the Great Lakes (yes it did). Second, if it did, where would it go (more north of PHL) and how much would fall (generally too much predicted throughout PA, ok for parts of central NJ). 

As it resolved, the GFS/GEFS came in tied for first and the GGEM which placed the heaviest precip band over PHL (before shifting it correctly farther north) came in last.  We did miss one UKMET forecast in this sequence because of data transmission issues.  It would not have come in first, might have come in last.

The "big four" climate sites had either a trace or 0.01".

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/7 12z: .08

eps

4/7 12z: .2

This weekend is going to be a pita to split these out.  As a waiter's suggestion, follow the EC OP break in precip prior to 00z/sunday and just use the ensemble mean at the same time whether it is 18z sat, 12z sat, or 00z sun.  Either this disappears or blends into the sat night/sun mrng event, idk.

[tombo82685 14,274]

2 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This weekend is going to be a pita to split these out.  As a waiter's suggestion, follow the EC OP break in precip prior to 00z/sunday and just use the ensemble mean at the same time whether it is 18z sat, 12z sat, or 00z sun.  Either this disappears or blends into the sat night/sun mrng event, idk.

I used 0z sun, eps as of yesterday at 12z had continuous precip 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I used 0z sun, eps as of yesterday at 12z had continuous precip 

Yeah, not clear cut.  Do what you have to.

Well anyway for everything Saturday night into Sunday night can we start with the 12z run today the 8th? 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 4/8/2021 at 12:18 PM, tombo82685 said:

I used 0z sun, eps as of yesterday at 12z had continuous precip 

Since there were sprinkles around, the first leg can be stopped with the 12z earlier today (9th).  The second part we can go thru at least the 12z run tomorrow the 10th. 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:05 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/7 12z: .08

4/8 0z: .17

4/8 12z: .11

4/9 0z: .16

4/9 12z: .13

eps

4/7 12z: .2

4/8 0z: .17

4/8 12z: .15

4/9 0z: .22

4/9 12z: .17

Sunday

euro

4/8 12z: .73

4/9 0z: .88

4/9 12z: .7

4/10 0z: 1.03

4/10 12z: .98

eps

4/8 12z: .65

4/9 0z: .59

4/9 12z: .62

4/10 0z: .98

4/10 12z: .75

This Sunday event, was your cut-off time like 12z Monday?  I am trying to figure out what to do about Monday night and Tuesday. I think I am beginning to see the complaint about the inconsistency with this new GFS. Maybe the Euro has been the same, but I don't see its qpf often.

[tombo82685 14,274]

4 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This Sunday event, was your cut-off time like 12z Monday?  I am trying to figure out what to do about Monday night and Tuesday. I think I am beginning to see the complaint about the inconsistency with this new GFS. Maybe the Euro has been the same, but I don't see its qpf often.

yes 12z mon

[Rainshadow6.6 10,572]

7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yes 12z mon

Alright. I know we may only get maybe four runs out of this.  But for later Monday/Tuesday, can we start with the 00z this morning and go to I am guessing to 00z Wednesday (vs 12z Wednesday).  Let me know what you think about an ending time.