Jump to content

Delta


Recommended Posts

Looks like the global models have intensified Delta further on this run.  As for us, well (Euro not in completely yet), GFS is farther north and of course has >24 hours of continuous precipitation.  If someone wants rain on either Sunday or Monday, the chance exists.  Similar to another event where a high might squash it to the south.  It didn't last time and not sure about this time either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Storm looks healthy now.  All guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Gulf coast.  I'm intrigued by the Euro effectively stalling the system inland in the deep south while the gfs/cmc zip the rain shield to us by Sunday.  Massive placement difference

probably would favor gfs/ggem. Euro and it's speed of systems has been terrible with it's to slow bias. Probably in part because its been way to over amped in the extended range 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Storm looks healthy now.  All guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Gulf coast.  I'm intrigued by the Euro effectively stalling the system inland in the deep south while the gfs/cmc zip the rain shield to us by Sunday.  Massive placement difference

What Tom said, Euro has been horribly slow with these tropical systems this season.

This did get ugly fast:

115859_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.6785106a664f4fc7dcff530a8a900979.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is 55kts among friends?  From NHC:

Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours,
with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC
Monday and 1200 UTC today.  Environmental conditions of low 
vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level
moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification
through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could
slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins.
The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high
likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase 
before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the 
various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely 
dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan.  It could 
be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to 
occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in 
intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the 
environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are 
expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity 
forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours.  As mentioned before, 
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the 
northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind 
speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when 
it nears the northern Gulf coast.

Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt.  A mid-level
ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane
nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By
day three a developing trough over the south-central United States
is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern
Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48
hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter
regarding the timing and details of the northward turn.  The ECMWF
and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of
the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus 
which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

fwiw, euro has been near the tx/LA border since yesterdays 0z run. GFS has been trending slowly towards it 

Yeah so far the Euro westward bias has not occurred with Delta.  Looks like most of this is coming once it gets into the Gulf.  That poor county in far southwest Louisiana.  Either way, I am not buying the Euro suppressing pcpn come our way this weekend.  I think the more likely getting little/not much out of this is from the remnants of Delta going even farther to the west, not getting squashed to our south.

 

tr1.png

tr2.png

tr3.png

tr4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...