Harbourton Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 This looks a little ominous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Here we go again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Looks like the global models have intensified Delta further on this run. As for us, well (Euro not in completely yet), GFS is farther north and of course has >24 hours of continuous precipitation. If someone wants rain on either Sunday or Monday, the chance exists. Similar to another event where a high might squash it to the south. It didn't last time and not sure about this time either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Storm looks healthy now. All guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Gulf coast. I'm intrigued by the Euro effectively stalling the system inland in the deep south while the gfs/cmc zip the rain shield to us by Sunday. Massive placement difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Storm looks healthy now. All guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Gulf coast. I'm intrigued by the Euro effectively stalling the system inland in the deep south while the gfs/cmc zip the rain shield to us by Sunday. Massive placement difference probably would favor gfs/ggem. Euro and it's speed of systems has been terrible with it's to slow bias. Probably in part because its been way to over amped in the extended range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, susqushawn said: Storm looks healthy now. All guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Gulf coast. I'm intrigued by the Euro effectively stalling the system inland in the deep south while the gfs/cmc zip the rain shield to us by Sunday. Massive placement difference What Tom said, Euro has been horribly slow with these tropical systems this season. This did get ugly fast: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 What is 55kts among friends? From NHC: Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours, with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins. The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast. Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By day three a developing trough over the south-central United States is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Impressive strengthening in such a short time. Cat 4 level reached. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Seems to be the MO with majors this year: incredibly rapid intensification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 I don't think I seen a Cat4 without a clear eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Harbourton said: I don't think I seen a Cat4 without a clear eye. or such a tiny one at that too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Modeling has had west trend in gulf and north trend with east coast qpf. LV the current wpc bullseye, Still a ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 fwiw, euro has been near the tx/LA border since yesterdays 0z run. GFS has been trending slowly towards it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: fwiw, euro has been near the tx/LA border since yesterdays 0z run. GFS has been trending slowly towards it Yeah so far the Euro westward bias has not occurred with Delta. Looks like most of this is coming once it gets into the Gulf. That poor county in far southwest Louisiana. Either way, I am not buying the Euro suppressing pcpn come our way this weekend. I think the more likely getting little/not much out of this is from the remnants of Delta going even farther to the west, not getting squashed to our south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 Maybe a slight left of track bias, but much better than other tropical systems by the Euro and overall its distance error may be the best. Definite right of track bias for other models so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 Sadly it's going to over same people that are recovering from Laura. Many have just tarps on their roofs or living in motels. Count your blessings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted October 9, 2020 Report Share Posted October 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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