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October & Winter Ensuing Temperatures Revisited. What About November?


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The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm.  It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five.

From FB Post:

A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way.

october2nd.JPG.147fe1598f8d73f879a0839192b644ac.JPG

oct.JPG

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Def won't have a below normal October from what I see. Most likely normal october and even a shot at above normal oct possibly if EPS are right. 

If the average temperature is 58.3F or 58.4F there is no magic door that opens/closes, we will see how close we end up to the median. Then I can move the goal posts again next October.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

If the average temperature is 58.3F or 58.4F there is no magic door that opens/closes, we will see how close we end up to the median. Then I can move the goal posts again next October.

well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week 

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23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week 

The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something.

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On 10/14/2020 at 9:27 AM, tombo82685 said:

well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week 

Looks like the euro won out and the torch is on for the remaining days of the month. 

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On 10/15/2020 at 8:40 AM, Chubbs said:

The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something.

Yep, that cold push for the end of of the month went poof. Signs of things to come I’m afraid 

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21 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep, that cold push for the end of of the month went poof. Signs of things to come I’m afraid 

It is still there on the GFS. The sun rose in the East too this morning. The GFS really did a choke job on this week when it was beyond day 7.

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On 10/15/2020 at 8:40 AM, Chubbs said:

The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something.

 

22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the euro won out and the torch is on for the remaining days of the month. 

From our good friend “HM”

 

 

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On 9/28/2020 at 10:16 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm.  It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five.

From FB Post:

A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way.

october2nd.JPG.147fe1598f8d73f879a0839192b644ac.JPG

oct.JPG

As of today's forecasts I am getting 60.0F for the month.

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On 10/23/2020 at 9:08 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

As of today's forecasts I am getting 60.0F for the month.

All phl Octobers days 1 through 28. Amazing how little variation there is since 2010, with only 2017 straying far from 60.

network PA_ASOS station PHL month 10 day 1 days 28 varname avg_temp year 2020 dpi 100.png

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On 9/28/2020 at 10:16 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm.  It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five.

From FB Post:

A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way.

october2nd.JPG.147fe1598f8d73f879a0839192b644ac.JPG

oct.JPG

59.6F it was.

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  • Rainshadow5.8 changed the title to October & Winter Ensuing Temperatures Revisited. What About November?

Interesting flip with November.  While the tendency for warmer Novembers and warmer winters is there, what I found was that the "normal" sample size tended to even the spread.  In warm Octobers, the near normal winters tended to be "warm normal" and vice versa. This was not the case with November temperatures.

 november.JPG.85eda05d2d425b973f0f7ccd2dbfbec9.JPG

This November, the average temperature so far is 52.5F.

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