Rainshadow Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm. It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five. From FB Post: A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 Def won't have a below normal October from what I see. Most likely normal october and even a shot at above normal oct possibly if EPS are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Def won't have a below normal October from what I see. Most likely normal october and even a shot at above normal oct possibly if EPS are right. If the average temperature is 58.3F or 58.4F there is no magic door that opens/closes, we will see how close we end up to the median. Then I can move the goal posts again next October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: If the average temperature is 58.3F or 58.4F there is no magic door that opens/closes, we will see how close we end up to the median. Then I can move the goal posts again next October. well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 23 hours ago, tombo82685 said: well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/14/2020 at 9:27 AM, tombo82685 said: well right now it's 61.7. a couple cool days friday-sun then next week looks torchy on the euro guidance while the gfs is much cooler, go fogure. Probably will be the make it or break it week Looks like the euro won out and the torch is on for the remaining days of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/15/2020 at 8:40 AM, Chubbs said: The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something. Yep, that cold push for the end of of the month went poof. Signs of things to come I’m afraid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 21 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yep, that cold push for the end of of the month went poof. Signs of things to come I’m afraid It is still there on the GFS. The sun rose in the East too this morning. The GFS really did a choke job on this week when it was beyond day 7. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/15/2020 at 8:40 AM, Chubbs said: The rest of the month is getting a ninaish look - cold N Rockies and warm SE. Maybe its trying to tell us something. 22 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like the euro won out and the torch is on for the remaining days of the month. From our good friend “HM” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2020 On 9/28/2020 at 10:16 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said: The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm. It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five. From FB Post: A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way. As of today's forecasts I am getting 60.0F for the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/23/2020 at 9:08 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said: As of today's forecasts I am getting 60.0F for the month. All phl Octobers days 1 through 28. Amazing how little variation there is since 2010, with only 2017 straying far from 60. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 9/28/2020 at 10:16 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said: The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm. It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five. From FB Post: A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way. 59.6F it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Interesting flip with November. While the tendency for warmer Novembers and warmer winters is there, what I found was that the "normal" sample size tended to even the spread. In warm Octobers, the near normal winters tended to be "warm normal" and vice versa. This was not the case with November temperatures. This November, the average temperature so far is 52.5F. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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