Rainshadow Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 The exception may be let's say leaving the door open for November to undo October if the month is warm. It is still not a slam dunk as the 5 cold Novembers that have followed the 10 warmest Octobers have had 3 cold winters out of five. From FB Post: A long, long, long time ago when I was an intern at Newark, I did a study on the relationship between fall temperatures and ensuing winters for NYC from 1900-87. The strongest correlations were warm October, warmer winter; cold November, colder winters. I wish I could find the graph, but October was a flat line (by decadal averages) during that time period. Since then and especially the last 10 years October has gone the way of most other months and warmed. So in an attempt to move the goal posts, I have looked at just the past 30 years and adjusted the criteria for each category. Mind you 6 of the 10 warmest Octobers in this 30 year sample have occurred since 2012. It is a small sample size, but the three cold winters we have had following a warm October have all had a cold November. Nothing is a slam dunk though as last year (and 2012) the warm October/cold November combo had a warm winter. Maybe we can have a "normal" October this fall? It will start that way. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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