Rainshadow Posted September 13, 2020 Report Share Posted September 13, 2020 Hurricane warning already up. What a lousy track angle for New Orleans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 13, 2020 Report Share Posted September 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: Hurricane warning already up. What a lousy track angle for New Orleans. Yea, track doesn't look good. Per below, still impacted by shear, but supposed to relax today. Tough intensity forecast with a lot riding on outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Yea, track doesn't look good. Per below, still impacted by shear, but supposed to relax today. Tough intensity forecast with a lot riding on outcome. To some extent (caveat surveying still going on about the peak surge) we saw that with Laura, any slowing of the intensification can only help with the surge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted September 13, 2020 Report Share Posted September 13, 2020 My mom and sister live just SW of Mobile, they are watching this one closely. Forecasting 10-15" of rain for their part of Alabama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Fortunately, slow to improve organization yesterday. With slow movement, still time for some intensification today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 NHC calling for 15-20" at my mom's now. Looks like over 48 hours of tropical storm conditions... Going to be a long week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 56 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: NHC calling for 15-20" at my mom's now. Looks like over 48 hours of tropical storm conditions... Going to be a long week. While the modeling has been shakier as to where, they unfortunately have been more consistent about it being slow. I hope your family is in a less flood prone area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Time sensitive - the center jog can be seen in the recent satellite loops. TT link below: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=19L&product=vis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Well it looks like the Euro may be heading to another west of track bias outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Of the global models off of 12z (Euro not in yet), the UKMET is farthest east (near FL/AL) border and strongest (964mb) with landfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 OT. But can we get the front to slow enough for some rains from sally up her next weekend? @tombo82685 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: OT. But can we get the front to slow enough for some rains from sally up her next weekend? @tombo82685 The euro was hinting at that earlier, but thats a big man high associated with that trough and it's going to want to press south.Could see some light rain fire up along the cold front as it converges with some of the outflow from the tropical system. But the tropical system type rains I'm betting against coming up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted September 14, 2020 Report Share Posted September 14, 2020 Track shifted further east. My mom isn't in a very flood prone area thankfully, but they have horses and chickens which always complicates things. Wind forecast has gotten considerably worse there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2020 5 hours ago, mshaffer526 said: Track shifted further east. My mom isn't in a very flood prone area thankfully, but they have horses and chickens which always complicates things. Wind forecast has gotten considerably worse there. Hopefully the drifting motion, bad for rain, will plump bob up well cooler water and help the intensity decrease as the eye makes landfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2020 The intensity forecast has not increased and Stacy Stewart mentioned the start of the churning/upwelling on reducing SST(s). Anyway, because of the slow drift, this is a ton of rainfall. What has been good for New Orleans, has not been good for Mobile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted September 15, 2020 Report Share Posted September 15, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted September 15, 2020 Report Share Posted September 15, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted September 16, 2020 Report Share Posted September 16, 2020 My mom and sister lost power around 9 last night, no surprise there. Said they heard snapping of branches all night. What an incredibly long duration event this is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: My mom and sister lost power around 9 last night, no surprise there. Said they heard snapping of branches all night. What an incredibly long duration event this is. Unfortunately it did well to maintain its strength in spite of the slow motion and some predicted shear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 16, 2020 Report Share Posted September 16, 2020 Yikes at the scale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2020 On 9/16/2020 at 6:42 AM, mshaffer526 said: My mom and sister lost power around 9 last night, no surprise there. Said they heard snapping of branches all night. What an incredibly long duration event this is. How are they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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