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8/25 Enhanced Risk Observations


Bananashadow
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Off the latest HRRR but you can see the nice dry punch aloft which will be conducive for damaging wind gusts with any storms that have high cloud tops. Also, freezing level around 15-20k in atmosphere so would expect some hailers in these as well. Could be some good size hail too of 1" or larger in any cell that isn't embedded within a line. 

 

image.png.e2491ce985a570066cae46e4dc21e248.png

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Watch is likely:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1570.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
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MD 1570 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

   Areas affected...NJ...DE...MD...Northern VA...WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251910Z - 252045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move into the region with in
   the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for damaging wind
   gusts across a large area from WV into NJ.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
   strength upstream of the region over the mid/upper OH Valley.
   Current storm motion estimates bring these storms to the edge of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 around 2000/2030Z. Air mass from the
   central Appalachians into the northern Mid-Atlantic has warmed in
   the upper 80s/low 90s, removing all convective inhibition and
   resulting in moderate buoyancy. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates
   MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear is around 25-30 kt
   over much of this area. Additionally, robust diurnal heating has
   resulted in steep low-level lapse rates. These steep low-level lapse
   rates coupled with modest mid-level moisture results in an
   environment favorable for strong, water-loaded downbursts.

   As a result, the expectation is for the ongoing storms to move into
   the region within the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for
   damaging wind gusts across a large area from WV into NJ.

   ..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38558270 39467898 40237602 41027447 38927426 37448166
               38558270 
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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

You know it’s been a sick summer when a 72 dew point doesn’t feel that bad. I thought we were in the upper 60s and we  got a cheap 90 high out of this.

Yup. High was 90.0 here before cloud cover moved in. 

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

You know it’s been a sick summer when a 72 dew point doesn’t feel that bad. I thought we were in the upper 60s and we  got a cheap 90 high out of this.

Yup. 90/72 with a gusty wind and it feels refreshing. Sad that is what it has become. 

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The dynamics seem to be there, plenty of MLCAPE and shear for the taking. The MUCAPE is centered over the Chesapeake with us on the edge. Overhead here in delco we have some high clouds but with sun still poking through. Unless that cloud cover really stifles things, I am still holding out for some fireworks.

mlcp_eshr.gif

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10 minutes ago, Rockchops said:

The dynamics seem to be there, plenty of MLCAPE and shear for the taking. The MUCAPE is centered over the Chesapeake with us on the edge. Overhead here in delco we have some high clouds but with sun still poking through. Unless that cloud cover really stifles things, I am still holding out for some fireworks.

mlcp_eshr.gif

We are between short waves. Hard to argue with mixed layer capes like that, but sometimes in nw flow it just doesn't work, not enough low level inflow. At least it is giving me a chance to cut the grass with less of the sun beating down on me.

We are getting the smoke from the wildfires today aloft, but that is not hurting places southwest of us.

 

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