Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Today's it is one of those days that there is some uncertainty as to whether or not convection can form, but if it does form given the lapse rates and dry air around, there will be wind damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Off the latest HRRR but you can see the nice dry punch aloft which will be conducive for damaging wind gusts with any storms that have high cloud tops. Also, freezing level around 15-20k in atmosphere so would expect some hailers in these as well. Could be some good size hail too of 1" or larger in any cell that isn't embedded within a line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 It looks like a line forming in W PA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: It looks like a line forming in W PA That should drop down to dc. Need to see something form near Williamsport area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 A yawn is starting to build up inside me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Watch is likely: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1570.html Mesoscale Discussion 1570 < Previous MD Next MD > Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Areas affected...NJ...DE...MD...Northern VA...WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251910Z - 252045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move into the region with in the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts across a large area from WV into NJ. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and strength upstream of the region over the mid/upper OH Valley. Current storm motion estimates bring these storms to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 around 2000/2030Z. Air mass from the central Appalachians into the northern Mid-Atlantic has warmed in the upper 80s/low 90s, removing all convective inhibition and resulting in moderate buoyancy. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear is around 25-30 kt over much of this area. Additionally, robust diurnal heating has resulted in steep low-level lapse rates. These steep low-level lapse rates coupled with modest mid-level moisture results in an environment favorable for strong, water-loaded downbursts. As a result, the expectation is for the ongoing storms to move into the region within the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts across a large area from WV into NJ. ..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/25/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38558270 39467898 40237602 41027447 38927426 37448166 38558270 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 My P&C percentage of rain went down from 60 to only 30. Yawn coming on indeed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: A yawn is starting to build up inside me Ditto. Looking like any severe stuff is going to be out to the West of us. Could be wrong, but hey, gotta take a stand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 I am waiting to cut the grass as late as possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 You know it’s been a sick summer when a 72 dew point doesn’t feel that bad. I thought we were in the upper 60s and we got a cheap 90 high out of this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: You know it’s been a sick summer when a 72 dew point doesn’t feel that bad. I thought we were in the upper 60s and we got a cheap 90 high out of this. Yup. High was 90.0 here before cloud cover moved in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Still many hours to go in the watch, but yeah - nothing exciting at all to the northwest. Guess we play the wait & see game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: You know it’s been a sick summer when a 72 dew point doesn’t feel that bad. I thought we were in the upper 60s and we got a cheap 90 high out of this. Yup. 90/72 with a gusty wind and it feels refreshing. Sad that is what it has become. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Sun angle y'all - ain't what it used to be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Looks like a secondary line is starting to form along the Pocono's??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 distant thunder, for the umpteenth time this year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 The dynamics seem to be there, plenty of MLCAPE and shear for the taking. The MUCAPE is centered over the Chesapeake with us on the edge. Overhead here in delco we have some high clouds but with sun still poking through. Unless that cloud cover really stifles things, I am still holding out for some fireworks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Nothing too crazy, but finally some stuff firing up near Williamsport as Tombo mentioned us wanting to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rockchops said: The dynamics seem to be there, plenty of MLCAPE and shear for the taking. The MUCAPE is centered over the Chesapeake with us on the edge. Overhead here in delco we have some high clouds but with sun still poking through. Unless that cloud cover really stifles things, I am still holding out for some fireworks. We are between short waves. Hard to argue with mixed layer capes like that, but sometimes in nw flow it just doesn't work, not enough low level inflow. At least it is giving me a chance to cut the grass with less of the sun beating down on me. We are getting the smoke from the wildfires today aloft, but that is not hurting places southwest of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Light shower, 0.03" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Light shower, 0.03" Jackpot! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Intense storm near Shiloh in Cumberland county moving into Bridgeton. Damaging winds and some hail likely with it and an aloft circulation. KDIX 6:20 PM: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Still a decent storm, with a waterspout possible off the coast of Fortescue. KDIX 7:03 PM: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Most boring Enhanced day I can remember. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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