Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2020 Report Share Posted August 22, 2020 Good to see that the Euro hasn't lost its ability to landcane these systems. That aside, if a rain/greater than zero tornado threat becomes more likely, we'll move this to short term. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 22, 2020 Report Share Posted August 22, 2020 Laura's track looks to go over the biggest mountains in that part of the Caribbean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 14 hours ago, Harbourton said: Laura's track looks to go over the biggest mountains in that part of the Caribbean. Solid satellite presentation this am even with center over Hispanola. Worst case now is probably a further shift south near Cuba due to high OHC S of Cuba. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Solid satellite presentation this am even with center over Hispanola. Worst case now is probably a further shift south near Cuba due to high OHC S of Cuba. I really am not getting a good feeling about this for Texas or Louisiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Solid satellite presentation this am even with center over Hispanola. Worst case now is probably a further shift south near Cuba due to high OHC S of Cuba. Its going to suck bigtime for New Orleans area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: I really am not getting a good feeling about this for Texas or Louisiana. I think New Orleans will be on the wrong side of the storm if/when it hits. They could be in the right front quadrant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, cbelke said: I think New Orleans will be on the wrong side of the storm if/when it hits. They could be in the right front quadrant. New Orleans should really pack up and move to Kansas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 Rocket fuel in the GOMEX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 Poor taste, but I like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, cbelke said: Poor taste, but I like it. Only in 2020. It must be 2020, because that is the only year where a hurricane intensifies after moving inland.... BTW of the solutions out there, this relatively benign one for New Orleans would be great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2020 Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: Only in 2020. It must be 2020, because that is the only year where a hurricane intensifies after moving inland.... BTW of the solutions out there, this relatively benign one for New Orleans would be great. You mean like this solution. That's a Cat4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Harbourton said: You mean like this solution. That's a Cat4. Houston, we'd have a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 ukie gets a gold star for S of Cuba track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 I don’t see new oreleans having an issue. Think Laura tracks a good bit west of them to do much damage. Houston and Galveston area is the one to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: ukie gets a gold star for S of Cuba track Good to see that the GFS has not lost its right of track of bias. It is weather how system to system models are different. The UKMET was one of the worst (it was landcaning even worse than the Euro) with Isaias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 You made me look @Chubbs, so the UKMET still landcaning to the max. An intensifying (for a six hour period) 979 low passing through southeast Missouri, I'll pass. But it will make for pretty looking wind gust maps. So it has that going for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 Quite the difference is predicted shear between getting torn apart Marco and Laura. The 00z Canadian did have more shear closer to Laura. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 There is no win-win with this. But avoiding New Orleans (and Houston to the west) and coming in as a Cat II or less I would consider as good as it could get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 As long as shear is favorable for Laura and she holds up well with close proximity to Cuba, I don't see how this does not get to cat 3 or higher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: As long as shear is favorable for Laura and she holds up well with close proximity to Cuba, I don't see how this does not get to cat 3 or higher Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 11 hours ago, tombo82685 said: As long as shear is favorable for Laura and she holds up well with close proximity to Cuba, I don't see how this does not get to cat 3 or higher 948 before landfall on the 18z euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 11 hours ago, tombo82685 said: As long as shear is favorable for Laura and she holds up well with close proximity to Cuba, I don't see how this does not get to cat 3 or higher It would be a good surprise if it didn't, but I am with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Official NHC cone shows a major at landfall (at the TX/LA border). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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