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Winter 2020-21 Outlook Discussion, Almost Final Analog Verification Page 12.


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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Somehow, someone, somewhere, probably on Ragebook or Iamatwit(ter), will still say this is all wrong and there will be a Modoki nino this season.

That a challenge?? 

 

Hold my 🍻!!

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1 hour ago, PreserveJon said:

Yay!  Always good to see the return of the winter thread.  Last winter's pattern thread was started in April 2019 (!?!), the year before was started in June, and the year before that the discussion was started 8/1/17.  What was the hold up?

Nothing as far as I know.  Maybe the heat was getting to everyone?

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4 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

The Indian Ocean needs to cool. Once that happens,  I'll  start worrying about the  ENSO state.

If la nina stays weak, thats good, but I don't like all the above normal water stacked up in phases 2-6. Regardless, we can sit here and regurgitate all these analogs and what not and what winter should do. Reality though, you don't know till December once you see how the winter tropical forcing pattern evolves and pv strength

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

If la nina stays weak, thats good, but I don't like all the above normal water stacked up in phases 2-6. Regardless, we can sit here and regurgitate all these analogs and what not and what winter should do. Reality though, you don't know till December once you see how the winter tropical forcing pattern evolves and pv strength

13/14 had nothing special going for it at the end of August,  2013, and we know  how that turned out. 14/15 had nothing special  going for it thru 2/13/15, and we know  how that turned out. Just too early to be confident imho, but admittedly there's nothing  to get excited about at this point either. Plus, I've  vastly increased my  odds of snow having bought a home in Hanover, PA. I'll  miss the coastals that'll  hit your  area on east, but will hopefully get more snow with the borderline events. 

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Might as well beat everyone to it, winter cancelled 

March will rock.

The only thing I will say if there is pessimism about this winter whether it is warranted or not is a different frame of mind than the unbridled optimism of the last couple of winters.  There is only upside potential.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

March will rock.

The only thing I will say if there is pessimism about this winter whether it is warranted or not is a different frame of mind than the unbridled optimism of the last couple of winters.  There is only upside potential.

 

 

Just please don’t tell us you will be looking for Florida vacation spots in winter. I truly believe that was the number 1 reason over tropical forcing and the pv that the last 2 winters failed 

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  • Bananashadow changed the title to Winter 2020-21 Outlook Discussion, Almost Final Analog Verification Page 12.

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