Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 To quote Tom as long as it is not a strong nina (and it doesn't look that way), the game is still on. The Euro (it doesnt go that far on the IRI web site) has a decent nina outlooked thru January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 Somehow, someone, somewhere, probably on Ragebook or Iamatwit(ter), will still say this is all wrong and there will be a Modoki nino this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: Somehow, someone, somewhere, probably on Ragebook or Iamatwit(ter), will still say this is all wrong and there will be a Modoki nino this season. That a challenge?? Hold my 🍻!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 Good to see the waters in p4/5 aren’t a inferno Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 Yay! Always good to see the return of the winter thread. Last winter's pattern thread was started in April 2019 (!?!), the year before was started in June, and the year before that the discussion was started 8/1/17. What was the hold up? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, PreserveJon said: Yay! Always good to see the return of the winter thread. Last winter's pattern thread was started in April 2019 (!?!), the year before was started in June, and the year before that the discussion was started 8/1/17. What was the hold up? Nothing as far as I know. Maybe the heat was getting to everyone? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 wake me up in December. As of now, I'm very bearish for this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 17, 2020 Report Share Posted August 17, 2020 Just now, tombo82685 said: wake me up in December. As of now, I'm very bearish for this winter We'll be mowing the lawns in to January. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 13 hours ago, tombo82685 said: wake me up in December. As of now, I'm very bearish for this winter March will rock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 The Indian Ocean needs to cool. Once that happens, I'll start worrying about the ENSO state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 Is it possible to be bearish on winter, but still expect 4x as much snow as the previous winter? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Mitchnick said: The Indian Ocean needs to cool. Once that happens, I'll start worrying about the ENSO state. If la nina stays weak, thats good, but I don't like all the above normal water stacked up in phases 2-6. Regardless, we can sit here and regurgitate all these analogs and what not and what winter should do. Reality though, you don't know till December once you see how the winter tropical forcing pattern evolves and pv strength 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: If la nina stays weak, thats good, but I don't like all the above normal water stacked up in phases 2-6. Regardless, we can sit here and regurgitate all these analogs and what not and what winter should do. Reality though, you don't know till December once you see how the winter tropical forcing pattern evolves and pv strength 13/14 had nothing special going for it at the end of August, 2013, and we know how that turned out. 14/15 had nothing special going for it thru 2/13/15, and we know how that turned out. Just too early to be confident imho, but admittedly there's nothing to get excited about at this point either. Plus, I've vastly increased my odds of snow having bought a home in Hanover, PA. I'll miss the coastals that'll hit your area on east, but will hopefully get more snow with the borderline events. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 fwiw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said: fwiw Textbook Niña look generally but those seasonal outlooks are terrible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Textbook Niña look generally but those seasonal outlooks are terrible Yup they sure are so expecting Tony to be in jackpot zone with coldest and snowiest 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 18, 2020 Report Share Posted August 18, 2020 Past 10 days no one knows jack squat. Despite that, this is the best thread since snow in May in the Poconos! Bring on the cold! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 19, 2020 Report Share Posted August 19, 2020 Farmers almanac - no love for the mid-atlantic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2020 11 hours ago, Chubbs said: Farmers almanac - no love for the mid-atlantic Sheets of sleet would have worked great in 2007-8. I had to laugh. Anyway ninas usually do have more mixed bag events than ninos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2020 16 hours ago, Qtown Snow said: Yup they sure are so expecting Tony to be in jackpot zone with coldest and snowiest 🙂 Everytime we tour, another fgen band forms over Mount Laurel. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 20, 2020 Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 Might as well beat everyone to it, winter cancelled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Might as well beat everyone to it, winter cancelled March will rock. The only thing I will say if there is pessimism about this winter whether it is warranted or not is a different frame of mind than the unbridled optimism of the last couple of winters. There is only upside potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 20, 2020 Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 45 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: March will rock. The only thing I will say if there is pessimism about this winter whether it is warranted or not is a different frame of mind than the unbridled optimism of the last couple of winters. There is only upside potential. Just please don’t tell us you will be looking for Florida vacation spots in winter. I truly believe that was the number 1 reason over tropical forcing and the pv that the last 2 winters failed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Just please don’t tell us you will be looking for Florida vacation spots in winter. I truly believe that was the number 1 reason over tropical forcing and the pv that the last 2 winters failed How about South Carolina? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 20, 2020 Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 52 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: How about South Carolina? How about caribou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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