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Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion


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We snuck a camera in to catch the reaction of Charlie, Tony, Tom & Shawn at today's European run briefing. Tom, I think you have to do something with your hair, just sayin'....  

We are getting close to the go with it confidence.  Even at this juncture, worst/warmest case scenario beginning to look like 70-75.  Wow September in September, what a novel idea.  

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00z/23rd/ Normal 850mb temp around +9C.  Last Evaluation of old GEFS.

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the 30th (a nod to the EPS) and then below normal for the first full week of October, run ends on the 8th.

GEPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the 29th, below normal Sep 30th into Oct 6th and the above Oct 6th thru the 8th.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Sep 30th. Below normal temps Sep 30th thru the end of its run on Oct 7.

 

 

00z/26th/ Normal 850mb temp around +9C.  First Evaluation of new GEFS.

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Sept 30th; then below normal thru Oct 8th; then bouncing around normal thru the end of its run on the 11th.

GEPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 1st (two days later); below normal into Oct 7th (one day later), near normal Oct 8th-10th and below normal on last day Oct 11th.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 1st (one day later). Below normal temps Oct 1st into Oct 7th.  Above normal Oct 8th thru the end of its run on Oct 10th.

 

Day 8 Teleconnections:          EPS:     +EPO/ +++PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS:  +EPO/ +++PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS:  +EPO/ +++PNA/  +NAO

 

End of run Teleconnections:   EPS:    +EPO/ -PNA/  neutral NAO

                                                  GEFS: +EPO/ neutral PNA/ +NAO

                                                  GEPS: +EPO/ neutral PNA/ +NAO

 

MJO:  Phases 5 thru 8 in this period.  Mike Ventrice outlook looks less of a COD phase 7 & 8 than EPS & GEFS off WH diagram.  Phases 5 & 6 are cool; phases 7, 8 & 1 are warm.  Statistically phase 1 has highest confidence. 

NAEFS Week 2:  Pretty confident of below normal temperatures Oct 4th thru Oct 11th.  The first part of the period as of now is the key.

 

This is an eyeball by me, the nao doesn't look as negative as previously progged.  Beyond that in la la land as to whether or not a PNA relaxation occurs.  We will see if there is a can kick, or a can at all.

 

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Euro in a league by itself with a pronounced southern stream induced low for Thursday morning. Can’t recall the last time the Euro has been Dr. Yes when everyone else has been the knights of the no table. I would hedge against the Euro, but have been known to eat crow with a dash of salt and basil.

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