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Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion


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13 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Here are the Philly averages over different timeframes including the recent trends since 2010 & the current status of the pending 1991-2020 climate normal. These figures are pure averages & don't take into account any potential smoothing or adjustments from the Climate Center. 

The only below average month since 2010 has been NOV, likewise that's the only month that wouldn't see an average increase for the pending 30 year normal. With that being said there's still next month to go so a torch month could change that scenario. 

Regarding MAR while 6 of the past 11 years have been below average there've been 4 years with top 10 warmth to offset. Same situation with MAY as 3 out of 5 have been below average however the 2 warm years have outperformed the cool months.

Overall at PHL 29% of the months since 2010 have been top 10 warm ones.

1681714198_phillyave.png.7417dce06c700456cb77d83ecc74817c.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

September @69.4 is the only month this year that would have changed from above--->below with the 1990-2020 averages. Unfortunately even the most recent past doesn't fully capture our new "normal".

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We snuck a camera in to catch the reaction of Charlie, Tony, Tom & Shawn at today's European run briefing. Tom, I think you have to do something with your hair, just sayin'....  

Nov 8th thru Feb 18th?

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

image.png.3f31fec9bc146162b0d776bca2072a63.png

Would be nice to have a cold Halloween.  Has a transient look to it for now, Pac is primed to overtake the Conus with this unfavorable AO/EPO setup, if it holds 

The pacific doesn’t look that bad. The low hgts are around and south of Aleutians which is far enough west that it allows a +pna to develop. If we see a big cold blob develop over AK then yea that wouldn’t be good as it would promote zonal pac flow. I haven’t looked at eps past what you posted to see if that’s where it goes or not but with the favorable tropical forcing for start of Nov that pos pna May have a bit more staying power. agree with ao region, pv is strengthening right now above normal 

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38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The pacific doesn’t look that bad. The low hgts are around and south of Aleutians which is far enough west that it allows a +pna to develop. If we see a big cold blob develop over AK then yea that wouldn’t be good as it would promote zonal pac flow. I haven’t looked at eps past what you posted to see if that’s where it goes or not but with the favorable tropical forcing for start of Nov that pos pna May have a bit more staying power. agree with ao region, pv is strengthening right now above normal 

 

6FBF76FC-1CBC-43CE-8BFB-57E0726FC614.png

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

6FBF76FC-1CBC-43CE-8BFB-57E0726FC614.png

Yea thats not that good looking. I like that big pig of a ridge firing up around the URALS though. Gotta see if that produces any strat related hits or works it's way into the pole. This is pretty far away still, would like to see what it looks like by day 10 to see if it starts picking up on some tropical forcing period from here on out or adjusts to more chill in the east. 

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea thats not that good looking. I like that big pig of a ridge firing up around the URALS though. Gotta see if that produces any strat related hits or works it's way into the pole. This is pretty far away still, would like to see what it looks like by day 10 to see if it starts picking up on some tropical forcing period from here on out or adjusts to more chill in the east. 

New run has more of a chill now going into November 

2C2B636D-25D8-4128-9149-D882E2EE2B8C.png

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

New run has more of a chill now going into November 

 

Yup, there is my +pna as you would expect with WH forcing in november as I was saying to @susqushawn this morning

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember that map from the middle of last January with the same mean...ugh 

probably had the same amount of snow for that time period too lol

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Something to watch for In the first half of November that I mentioned this morning. EPS and the GEFS are developing a big Scandanavian/URAL ridge towards the halloween period and into first week of November. The Scandanavian ridge can sometimes retrograde into Greenland and form a -nao. Also, that ridge placement can also lead to strat wave 1 displacements off the pole to give the potential for a -ao formation if the ridging were to manifest. First image shows the strong ridging in the scandanavia/ural area. Second image is 10mb strat look that shows the pv displaced a bit off the pole into north america due to the strong ridging in that area. Combine this potential -ao formation if the ridging gets stronger and builds into the pole with favorable WH tropical forcing and it could lead to a stout cold shot sometime in the first half of November. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4059200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4059200.png

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23 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

No bookend early season snow.  Puts a hex on DJF.  Panting is placed on hold.

Oooo you will pant, and thats an order

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00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 10/16-10/31.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 24th (four days longer), then below normal anomalies Oct 25th thru the end of its run on the 31st.  

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 30th and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies on October 31st.

EPS:   Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 27th (one day longer) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 27th through the end of its run on October 30th.

 

00z/19th Ensemble Comparison 10/19-11/3.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th (one day longer), near normal rest of 25th, now above normal (not below) October 26th & 27th, below normal anomalies October 28th thru November 2nd and then trending warmer on last day, November 3rd. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th, near normal rest of 25th (was warm), above normal October 26th into October 29th, below normal later on October 29th & also the 30th, near normal October 31st & then above normal the first three days of November.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp into October 28th (one day longer again) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 29th through November 1st and above normal anomalies on last day of run on November 2nd. 

 

00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 10/23-11/7.  Normal 850mb temp around +5C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 27th (near normal on 10/25 retreating north), brief below normal anomalies Oct 28th, (New) above normal/near normal anomalies Oct 28th & 29th, (Day Longer) below normal anomalies Oct 30th thru Nov 3rd, near normal anomalies later Nov 3rd thru end of run Nov 7th. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 25th, (Same) near normal anomalies rest of 25th, above normal anomalies (Now split) Oct 26th & 27th, 24hrs below normal Oct 27th-28th, above normal anomalies Oct 29th, below normal anomalies Oct 30th & 31st, near normal anomalies Nov 1st-3rd, below normal anomalies Nov 4th & 5th, ends with above normal anomalies Nov 6th & 7th.  There will be a quiz on this output on Monday.  ;)

EPS:  (Same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 28th, near normal anomalies Oct 28th/29th, below normal anomalies Oct 30th/31st, bouncing around near normal Nov 1st-5th, then above normal on Nov 6th last day. 

Day 8 Teleconnections:           EPS:     -EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS:   neutral EPO/   neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS:  -EPO/  +PNA/ +NAO

 

End of run Teleconnections:   EPS:    +EPO/  +PNA/  weak -NAO

                                                  GEFS: +EPO/  -PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS: +EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

 

Strat: Moderate Wave 2 hit starting November.

MJO:  (WH Sectors) Border Phase 5/6. MJO outlooked to progress Phase 7 on GEFS/EPS and Phase 1 on Mike Ventrice outlook.  Phase 6 is cool;  phases 7 is warm (looks like SE Ridge pattern), phase 8 in November is cold, phase 1 in November is warm.

NAEFS Week 2: Week of October 31st-November 7th. Same old, same old, we don't know because GEFS is colder and GEPS warmer.  We were weakly cold confident for a couple of days prior.

So...very bouncy MJO phases (and wave 2 hit) entering November support the whip sawing we are seeing in week 2. MJO tends to not linger in the western hemisphere, so we will see where we go from there after the first week in November (assuming these are reasonably accurate).

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 10/16-10/31.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 24th (four days longer), then below normal anomalies Oct 25th thru the end of its run on the 31st.  

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 30th and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies on October 31st.

EPS:   Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 27th (one day longer) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 27th through the end of its run on October 30th.

 

00z/19th Ensemble Comparison 10/19-11/3.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th (one day longer), near normal rest of 25th, now above normal (not below) October 26th & 27th, below normal anomalies October 28th thru November 2nd and then trending warmer on last day, November 3rd. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th, near normal rest of 25th (was warm), above normal October 26th into October 29th, below normal later on October 29th & also the 30th, near normal October 31st & then above normal the first three days of November.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp into October 28th (one day longer again) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 29th through November 1st and above normal anomalies on last day of run on November 2nd. 

 

00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 10/23-11/7.  Normal 850mb temp around +5C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 27th (near normal on 10/25 retreating north), brief below normal anomalies Oct 28th, (New) above normal/near normal anomalies Oct 28th & 29th, (Day Longer) below normal anomalies Oct 30th thru Nov 3rd, near normal anomalies later Nov 3rd thru end of run Nov 7th. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 25th, (Same) near normal anomalies rest of 25th, above normal anomalies (Now split) Oct 26th & 27th, 24hrs below normal Oct 27th-28th, above normal anomalies Oct 29th, below normal anomalies Oct 30th & 31st, near normal anomalies Nov 1st-3rd, below normal anomalies Nov 4th & 5th, ends with above normal anomalies Nov 6th & 7th.  There will be a quiz on this output on Monday.  ;)

EPS:  (Same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Oct 28th, near normal anomalies Oct 28th/29th, below normal anomalies Oct 30th/31st, bouncing around near normal Nov 1st-5th, then above normal on Nov 6th last day. 

Day 8 Teleconnections:           EPS:     -EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS:   neutral EPO/   neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS:  -EPO/  +PNA/ +NAO

 

End of run Teleconnections:   EPS:    +EPO/  +PNA/  weak -NAO

                                                  GEFS: +EPO/  -PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS: +EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

 

Strat: Moderate Wave 2 hit starting November.

MJO:  (WH Sectors) Border Phase 5/6. MJO outlooked to progress Phase 7 on GEFS/EPS and Phase 1 on Mike Ventrice outlook.  Phase 6 is cool;  phases 7 is warm (looks like SE Ridge pattern), phase 8 in November is cold, phase 1 in November is warm.

NAEFS Week 2: Week of October 31st-November 7th. Same old, same old, we don't know because GEFS is colder and GEPS warmer.  We were weakly cold confident for a couple of days prior.

So...very bouncy MJO phases (and wave 2 hit) entering November support the whip sawing we are seeing in week 2. MJO tends to not linger in the western hemisphere, so we will see where we go from there after the first week in November (assuming these are reasonably accurate).

Am I missing something on the wave 2 hit? I don’t see it on euro or gfs. Pv looks to be strengthening 

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27 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The NASA site:

 

Is that based off 10mb or 30mb? Cause euro at 10mb for nov 1, I'm not seeing a wave 2 hit, not seeing the pinching of the vortex 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4188800.png

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Is that based off 10mb or 30mb? Cause euro at 10mb for nov 1, I'm not seeing a wave 2 hit, not seeing the pinching of the vortex 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4188800.png

Different models.  Yeah it is 10mb (they use hpa).

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Am I missing something on the wave 2 hit? I don’t see it on euro or gfs. Pv looks to be strengthening 

Looks like any late month cool down is getting muted here 

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23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

B558F095-F8ED-40B1-9425-E4B5E51400E0.png

Mild, with lots of potential dreary/damp days (see this week). I guess that beats wasted below normal temperatures in early November. Save the cold for December please. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like any late month cool down is getting muted here 

It's still there, maybe not as strong as a couple days ago. Could change though as we aare still out past 7 days. Philly right now avgs are 65/45. So lets say start of Nov is 62 for high over 43. Generally near normal to slightly below from next Wednesday onwardecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-3411200.png.2c75899c7d31f30c64caf7b6569111a7.png

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps looks real zonal now at months end into November.  The one eyed pig looks to move into AK ugh 

Agreed, at face value right now they are, but this is also 13 days away where things can get smoothed out. Still hesitant on a ton of warmth in the east with where the mjo is at. Looking for more ridging in the west with that trough in AK backing up a bit more towards the Aleutians. In contrast to that, we have strengthening PV with +ao so it offsets.

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