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Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion


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We snuck a camera in to catch the reaction of Charlie, Tony, Tom & Shawn at today's European run briefing. Tom, I think you have to do something with your hair, just sayin'....  

Nov 8th thru Feb 18th?

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22 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

With the 100 degree temps the GFS spits out in Summer, does it have a long range warm bias in warm months, and long range cold bias in Winter?  

Hopefully, you are not drinking coffee when you look at these maps.  This is 168 hours and inward, nevermind la la land.

ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM01_monthly_ntham.png.85d11c5f2b0fe6c9a441a99d95f1ac0b.png

ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM07_monthly_ntham.png.a68879dad73eecd1ed2202cd27382812.png

Today's contribution to the bias:

1.JPG.b4e2fa0ced6b945934fdef95f3a502ca.JPG

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22 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

With the 100 degree temps the GFS spits out in Summer, does it have a long range warm bias in warm months, and long range cold bias in Winter?  

I thought I posted this, hopefully, you are not drinking coffee while viewing these maps.  This is from 168hrs inward only. ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM07_monthly_ntham.png.a68879dad73eecd1ed2202cd27382812.png

ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM01_monthly_ntham.png.85d11c5f2b0fe6c9a441a99d95f1ac0b.png

Today:

1.JPG.b4e2fa0ced6b945934fdef95f3a502ca.JPG

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On 10/15/2020 at 8:14 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Hopefully, you are not drinking coffee when you look at these maps.  This is 168 hours and inward, nevermind la la land.

ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM01_monthly_ntham.png.85d11c5f2b0fe6c9a441a99d95f1ac0b.png

ANOM2m_bias_rotate_MM07_monthly_ntham.png.a68879dad73eecd1ed2202cd27382812.png

Today's contribution to the bias:

1.JPG.b4e2fa0ced6b945934fdef95f3a502ca.JPG

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00z/12th Ensemble Comparison 10/12-10/27.  Normal 850mb temp around +7C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 16th (delayed and no cool shot before any longer). I certainly did not see this one coming, the never-ending below normal anomalies now have a break in it. Below normal 850mb anomalies Oct 16th into the 18th, near/above normal anomalies Oct 19th & 20th, then below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the end of its run on October 27th. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies through October 16th (same). Below normal anomalies Oct 17th into morning of 19th, then primarily above (some near normal) anomalies Oct 19th through the end of its run on October 27th. It lost the 10/20-23 cold shot this far east.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies through October 16th. Below normal 850mb temp anomalies late on Oct 16th into Oct 18th. Above normal anomalies later Oct 18th into October 26th end of its run. Same theme as GEPS of more of a western cold dump, never makes it to us, but looks stronger than the GEPS.

 

00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 10/16-10/31.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into the 24th (four days longer), then below normal anomalies Oct 25th thru the end of its run on the 31st.  

GEPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into October 30th and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies on October 31st.

EPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into October 27th (one day longer) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 27th through the end of its run on October 30th.

Day 8 Teleconnections:           EPS:     -EPO/  -PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS:   -EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS:  -EPO/  -PNA/ +NAO

 

End of run Teleconnections:   EPS:    +EPO/  + PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS: +EPO/  +PNA/   +NAO

                                                  GEPS: +EPO/  +PNA/  +NAO

 

MJO:  (WH Sectors) Phase 4/5. Reads familiar by end of month Phase 7 on GEFS/EPS and Phase 8 on Mike Ventrice outlook.  Phase 6 is cool; phases 7, 8 & 1 are warm.  Statistically phase 1 has highest confidence. 

NAEFS Week 2: Week of October 24th-31st. We don't know because GEFS & GEPS are compelte opposites.  

New GEFS same as old GEFS?   The GEFS is looking more and more like it fell on its cold bias face this upcoming week.  Now we switch to the last week of October where all the ensembles bring colder air, with the :blink: GEFS fastest and GEPS slowest.  The teleconnection evolution is similar with a predicted -EPO ridge bringing colder air into NOAM.  The -EPO is approaching skill time, so we will see where we go from here.  My inclination remains to go with the EPS.  It looks like it will make me look smarter than I am this upcoming week. The MJO is suppose to start moving.  Even if it does not wavelength stretching will flip the phase effects come November.

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39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@tombo82685 Barney shot at the end of the month? 

looks like models are moving towards it. MJO to start nov looks to be favorable for a cold shot. Phase 8 in nov is below normal in the east. Looks like the cool shot is +pna/-epo driven possibly from favorable tropical forcing. 

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thru yesterday PHL solidly above normal for the month, average temps drop into the mid 60's / mid 40's this week so there's going to big positive departures coming up 

models have backed off the big EC trough the following week therefore looks highly likely this will be the 11th consecutive above average OCT

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8 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

thru yesterday PHL solidly above normal for the month, average temps drop into the mid 60's / mid 40's this week so there's going to big positive departures coming up 

models have backed off the big EC trough the following week therefore looks highly likely this will be the 11th consecutive above average OCT

Yea this Oct is shot, going to verify as a warm october in the gigi scale. Still think we get a cool shot end of oct into start of Nov. MJO if it holds should be phase 8 in the first half of nov which is below normal for the east. 

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11 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

looks highly likely this will be the 11th consecutive above average OCT

No wonder why October has become one of my favorite months of the year. Hopefully the darkness of November isn’t accompanied by below average temps. and lots of rain. Not much worse than wasting good, cold air masses before winter even starts. 

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10 hours ago, Parsley said:

No wonder why October has become one of my favorite months of the year. Hopefully the darkness of November isn’t accompanied by below average temps. and lots of rain. Not much worse than wasting good, cold air masses before winter even starts. 

Yeah, no complaints about the upcoming week - just about perfect for any outdoor activity

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3 hours ago, Paweathernut said:

Every month it seems is going to be above normal especially if you go by 1981-2010 averages!

 

 

It's the smart bet to make. Probably will only use 1 or 2 months a year.

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9 hours ago, Paweathernut said:

Every month it seems is going to be above normal especially if you go by 1981-2010 averages!

 

 

Here are the Philly averages over different timeframes including the recent trends since 2010 & the current status of the pending 1991-2020 climate normal. These figures are pure averages & don't take into account any potential smoothing or adjustments from the Climate Center. 

The only below average month since 2010 has been NOV, likewise that's the only month that wouldn't see an average increase for the pending 30 year normal. With that being said there's still next month to go so a torch month could change that scenario. 

Regarding MAR while 6 of the past 11 years have been below average there've been 4 years with top 10 warmth to offset. Same situation with MAY as 3 out of 5 have been below average however the 2 warm years have outperformed the cool months.

Overall at PHL 29% of the months since 2010 have been top 10 warm ones.

1681714198_phillyave.png.7417dce06c700456cb77d83ecc74817c.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 10/16-10/31.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into the 24th (four days longer), then below normal anomalies Oct 25th thru the end of its run on the 31st.  

GEPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into October 30th and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies on October 31st.

EPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru October 18th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into October 27th (one day longer) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 27th through the end of its run on October 30th.

 

00z/19th Ensemble Comparison 10/19-11/3.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C.  

GEFS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th (one day longer), near normal rest of 25th, now above normal (not below) October 26th & 27th, below normal anomalies October 28th thru November 2nd and then trending warmer on last day, November 3rd. 

GEPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into October 25th, near normal rest of 25th (was warm), above normal October 26th into October 29th, below normal later on October 29th & also the 30th, near normal October 31st & then above normal the first three days of November.

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies October 19th into October 28th (one day longer again) and then below normal 850mb temp anomalies October 29th through November 1st and above normal anomalies on last day of run on November 2nd. 

Day 8 Teleconnections:           EPS:     -EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS:   -EPO/  -PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS:  -EPO/  -PNA/ +NAO

 

End of run Teleconnections:   EPS:    +EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEFS: +EPO/  neutral PNA/  +NAO

                                                  GEPS: +EPO/  +PNA/  +NAO

 

MJO:  (WH Sectors) Phase 5. MJO outlokked to progress Phase 7 on GEFS/EPS and Phase 8 on Mike Ventrice outlook.  Phase 6 is cool;  phases 7 is warm (looks like SE Ridge pattern), phase 8 in November is cold.

NAEFS Week 2: Week of October 27th-November 3rd. Nothing new, we don't know because GEFS is colder and GEPS warmer. Cold confidence just west of us.  

New GEFS same as old GEFS Part II?   Well the GEFS is backing off on sustained cold the last week of October.  The other ensembles had a cold shot (courtesy of -EPO ridging and Phase 6 MJO) and that is still there to one degree or another.  Phase 8 should be cold in November, although the ensembles are slower than MV with this and thus the start of month warm-up is internally consistent.  I'd still stick with the EPS, no point in going with the longer cold GEFS until we are more assured of Phase 8.

My internet connection sucks. This took over half an hour waiting for maps to load.

 

 

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On 10/18/2020 at 5:45 PM, tombo82685 said:

Yea this Oct is shot, going to verify as a warm october in the gigi scale. Still think we get a cool shot end of oct into start of Nov. MJO if it holds should be phase 8 in the first half of nov which is below normal for the east. 

Still like the cool shot for halloween timeframe into nov. Should finally get some phase 8 forcing which is a colder than normal pattern for the east in November. 

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image.png.3f31fec9bc146162b0d776bca2072a63.png

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Still like the cool shot for halloween timeframe into nov. Should finally get some phase 8 forcing which is a colder than normal pattern for the east in November. 

Would be nice to have a cold Halloween.  Has a transient look to it for now, Pac is primed to overtake the Conus with this unfavorable AO/EPO setup, if it holds 

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