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Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion


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We snuck a camera in to catch the reaction of Charlie, Tony, Tom & Shawn at today's European run briefing. Tom, I think you have to do something with your hair, just sayin'....  

We are getting close to the go with it confidence.  Even at this juncture, worst/warmest case scenario beginning to look like 70-75.  Wow September in September, what a novel idea.  

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Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought.

Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn.  What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that.  I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run.

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8184000.png.93ababa110b70f80c8b90dc25498dd68.png

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16 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought.

Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn.  What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that.  I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run.

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8184000.png.93ababa110b70f80c8b90dc25498dd68.png

With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity.

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33 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity.

It did advance a day.  Like you I am so tired of these perpetually humid summers.

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3 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity.

That’s not the chilliest day. That is just the high through 12z that day. You still have the rest of the day to go 

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On 8/23/2020 at 5:56 PM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought.

Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn.  What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that.  I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run.

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8184000.png.93ababa110b70f80c8b90dc25498dd68.png

Bank on the warmth. Good setup for it with WAR building in for more warmth and high dews on sw flow 

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Or as we like to call it September.

The warm look to start september makes sense with phase 8->1 which are torchy phases for September that show a big WAR type pattern. But if we do get the Influence from the super -IOD which I expect we will, should see most of September feature phases 3-6. Only warm phase out of that grouping is is phase 4. So would imagine we do get some decent cool spells as we traverse through each phase 3->6 for the month. But, i think the early warmth of september and probably another warm period in middle of month out does the cool shots. I'd go with like +1+2 for September as a gun to knee forecast. Again, this is assuming the tropical forcing is the main player which I think it will be 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The warm look to start september makes sense with phase 8->1 which are torchy phases for September that show a big WAR type pattern. But if we do get the Influence from the super -IOD which I expect we will, should see most of September feature phases 3-6. Only warm phase out of that grouping is is phase 4. So would imagine we do get some decent cool spells as we traverse through each phase 3->6 for the month. But, i think the early warmth of september and probably another warm period in middle of month out does the cool shots. I'd go with like +1+2 for September as a gun to knee forecast. Again, this is assuming the tropical forcing is the main player which I think it will be 

@Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons.  But this is the best I could come up with.  The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ.

2.JPG.4df325c270847c54a5cbaadcaf3e31b2.JPG

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

@Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons.  But this is the best I could come up with.  The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ.

2.JPG.4df325c270847c54a5cbaadcaf3e31b2.JPG

Don't worry master Yoda, I will be teaching you all about the force this fall and winter, tropical forcing that is

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On 8/25/2020 at 1:55 PM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

@Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons.  But this is the best I could come up with.  The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ.

Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory.

phlsepaug.png

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Awful to have to post, hey it is not looking like 90 posts in September, but "hey it doesn't look like 90s" once we get past the rebound heat potential next week.  Just keep those EPS(s) lower than the mid 80s.

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8486400.png.e2a726d0f61363f81b252227302e09a5.png

 

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14 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory.

phlsepaug.png

Over the most recent 12 met fall's (2008-2019) the max monthly temp during SEPT, & last year OCT :cagna2:, have equaled or exceeded the max monthly temp for AUG on 8 occasions.

It took 44 years (1964-2007) to record the prior 8 occurrences.

Looks like the 2020 AUG max at PHL will be 93 degrees, the mean AUG max temp over the past 20 yrs. is 95 degrees.

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34 minutes ago, Carl_p said:

Hey guys, trying to judge how Jersey Shore weather will look on the weekend of 9/10-9/13, any long term guesses yet?

Carl, I don’t have any. Just FYI I am going to move this into the met. autumn pattern thread if you wondered where it went.

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