Rainshadow Posted August 16, 2020 Report Share Posted August 16, 2020 This looks about right.... Yeah la la la la la land, but the look prior to this was not a bad end to August. After that it is September, I can't help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 20, 2020 Report Share Posted August 20, 2020 👀 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2020 Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought. Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn. What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that. I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 16 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought. Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn. What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that. I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run. With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity. It did advance a day. Like you I am so tired of these perpetually humid summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 hello September! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2020 Report Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 hours ago, Mitchnick said: With the last day in the forecast period coming in the chilliest day, it suggests to me a warmup before a decent cold front. All speculation, of course. If that was the case, however, I'll take it in a heartbeat. I'm soooo tired of the humidity. As the summer season progresses, I can get used to the heat, but not the humidity. That’s not the chilliest day. That is just the high through 12z that day. You still have the rest of the day to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 On 8/23/2020 at 5:56 PM, Rainshadow5.8 said: Good to see the GFS transitioning to I'll make it colder than humanly possible after spending another summer pumping out more forecast 100s than the Euro which was harder than I thought. Anyway, getting closer to model skill time and there is an agreement to a nice start to met autumn. What I don't like is the EPS defaulting to lo-mid 80s beyond that. I am not sure if we have entered the zone where this can go either way, buy during the summer this would turn into a near 90 run. Bank on the warmth. Good setup for it with WAR building in for more warmth and high dews on sw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Bank on the warmth. Good setup for it with WAR building in for more warmth and high dews on sw flow Or as we like to call it September. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Bank on the warmth. Good setup for it with WAR building in for more warmth and high dews on sw flow Go warm or go home! Expect September to torch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Go warm or go home! Expect September to torch Pretty much the theme since we crossed the 2001 threshold. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: Or as we like to call it September. The warm look to start september makes sense with phase 8->1 which are torchy phases for September that show a big WAR type pattern. But if we do get the Influence from the super -IOD which I expect we will, should see most of September feature phases 3-6. Only warm phase out of that grouping is is phase 4. So would imagine we do get some decent cool spells as we traverse through each phase 3->6 for the month. But, i think the early warmth of september and probably another warm period in middle of month out does the cool shots. I'd go with like +1+2 for September as a gun to knee forecast. Again, this is assuming the tropical forcing is the main player which I think it will be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: The warm look to start september makes sense with phase 8->1 which are torchy phases for September that show a big WAR type pattern. But if we do get the Influence from the super -IOD which I expect we will, should see most of September feature phases 3-6. Only warm phase out of that grouping is is phase 4. So would imagine we do get some decent cool spells as we traverse through each phase 3->6 for the month. But, i think the early warmth of september and probably another warm period in middle of month out does the cool shots. I'd go with like +1+2 for September as a gun to knee forecast. Again, this is assuming the tropical forcing is the main player which I think it will be @Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons. But this is the best I could come up with. The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: @Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons. But this is the best I could come up with. The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ. Don't worry master Yoda, I will be teaching you all about the force this fall and winter, tropical forcing that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 On 8/25/2020 at 1:55 PM, Rainshadow5.8 said: @Chubbs had a better graph of this showing the delay/slide of seasons. But this is the best I could come up with. The last several Septembers have been comparable to several around 1910 Augusts in NJ. Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory. This was a personally generated graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: This was a personally generated graph? Yes, spreadsheet from original phillywx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 Awful to have to post, hey it is not looking like 90 posts in September, but "hey it doesn't look like 90s" once we get past the rebound heat potential next week. Just keep those EPS(s) lower than the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 9 hours ago, Chubbs said: Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory. Incredible and believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 14 hours ago, Chubbs said: Recent phl Septembers moving into 1950s+60s August territory. Over the most recent 12 met fall's (2008-2019) the max monthly temp during SEPT, & last year OCT , have equaled or exceeded the max monthly temp for AUG on 8 occasions. It took 44 years (1964-2007) to record the prior 8 occurrences. Looks like the 2020 AUG max at PHL will be 93 degrees, the mean AUG max temp over the past 20 yrs. is 95 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 THING OF BEAUTY!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 I'll take the more conservative approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl_p Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Hey guys, trying to judge how Jersey Shore weather will look on the weekend of 9/10-9/13, any long term guesses yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, Carl_p said: Hey guys, trying to judge how Jersey Shore weather will look on the weekend of 9/10-9/13, any long term guesses yet? Carl, I don’t have any. Just FYI I am going to move this into the met. autumn pattern thread if you wondered where it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl_p Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 I see a big low in place near Philly around 9/10, but looks like it moves out for the weekend... not sure what it means for temps at the shore that weekend (2 weeks from today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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