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7/22 Slight Risk; 7/23 Marginal To Slight Risk & 7/24 Leftover OBS.


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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Post all thunderstorm and daily weather obs here :


have to watch this boundary out by Altoona. Could be a focus for development : but yea, clear skies should allow for ample destabilization throughout the day.44A6248A-B3CD-4EA7-9B5E-CC18CA737313.png.72946e5f5142b09f29d4d89e69e316b0.png



Well maybe not...seems like it would be more of a hindrance than help maybe? 



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   SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will produce damaging winds
   across portions of southern PA and eastern WV, eastward across the
   Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the afternoon and early evening

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southwest PA
   into northern WV are starting to increase in intensity late this
   morning. 14z Mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast soundings
   indicate that the area is still experiencing MLCIN, but this is
   expected to quickly erode over the next couple of hours as mostly
   clear skies downstream of this developing activity will result in
   strong heating. In fact, temperatures across southeast PA/southern
   NJ southward into the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity are
   already in the low to mid 80s. Surface dewpoints across the region
   are mostly in the low to mid 70s F, and this will aid in MLCAPE
   values as high as 1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Effective shear
   across the region will remain somewhat modest, around 20-30 kt, with
   some localized enhancement from MCVs migrating eastward from the
   Ohio Valley into the MCD discussion area. This will result in
   loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms tracking eastward
   through the afternoon. 

   Aforementioned strong surface heating will allow for the development
   of steep low level lapse rates, and some mixing of the boundary
   layer. As such, this will enhance strong downburst potential, and
   clusters of damaging wind are likely. Some guidance suggests a
   bowing segment or two could develop out of these thunderstorm
   clusters through outflow/storm-scale interactions/mergers or
   smaller-scale cold pool development. If this occurs, any
   forward-propagating bowing segment could increase the damaging wind
   threat locally. 

   Midlevel lapse rates and directional shear will remain modest, but a
   few of the more intense and discrete cells could produce a couple of
   instances of severe hail. Overall, damaging wind is expected to be
   the main concern into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will
   likely be needed for portions of the MCD area within the next couple
   of hours.
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High CAPE (2500+), marginal shear (20+kts) and CIN has diminished.  If memory serves me right, we've been disappointed in these high cape/low shear events before, but it appears we have a trigger incoming and the instability is certainly in place.  


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