cbelke Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Only got 0.33" out of the storm last night. Need more, but I'll try not to be greedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Post all thunderstorm and daily weather obs here : have to watch this boundary out by Altoona. Could be a focus for development : but yea, clear skies should allow for ample destabilization throughout the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, irishbri74 said: Post all thunderstorm and daily weather obs here : have to watch this boundary out by Altoona. Could be a focus for development : but yea, clear skies should allow for ample destabilization throughout the day. Well maybe not...seems like it would be more of a hindrance than help maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will produce damaging winds across portions of southern PA and eastern WV, eastward across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the afternoon and early evening hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southwest PA into northern WV are starting to increase in intensity late this morning. 14z Mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast soundings indicate that the area is still experiencing MLCIN, but this is expected to quickly erode over the next couple of hours as mostly clear skies downstream of this developing activity will result in strong heating. In fact, temperatures across southeast PA/southern NJ southward into the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity are already in the low to mid 80s. Surface dewpoints across the region are mostly in the low to mid 70s F, and this will aid in MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Effective shear across the region will remain somewhat modest, around 20-30 kt, with some localized enhancement from MCVs migrating eastward from the Ohio Valley into the MCD discussion area. This will result in loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms tracking eastward through the afternoon. Aforementioned strong surface heating will allow for the development of steep low level lapse rates, and some mixing of the boundary layer. As such, this will enhance strong downburst potential, and clusters of damaging wind are likely. Some guidance suggests a bowing segment or two could develop out of these thunderstorm clusters through outflow/storm-scale interactions/mergers or smaller-scale cold pool development. If this occurs, any forward-propagating bowing segment could increase the damaging wind threat locally. Midlevel lapse rates and directional shear will remain modest, but a few of the more intense and discrete cells could produce a couple of instances of severe hail. Overall, damaging wind is expected to be the main concern into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area within the next couple of hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Strong heating, capped, light shear - guessing spotty but somebody gets nailed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Watch to the southwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, greg ralls said: Watch to the southwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Yup, just got the alert. Starting to eerily match the joking we were doing about the NAM the last couple of days. Afraid that stuff out in York County now might inhibit some of the instability for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 High CAPE (2500+), marginal shear (20+kts) and CIN has diminished. If memory serves me right, we've been disappointed in these high cape/low shear events before, but it appears we have a trigger incoming and the instability is certainly in place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 York County storm 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanvolz98 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch up for just about everyone now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 That's beefy... And slow moving too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: That's beefy... And slow moving too. Some of the same areas in York Cty that were pounded yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 .80 yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Not much of a line but at least it's precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Been thundering here for quite a while - Nam3k scenario playing out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Just dumping. Very windy and a good amount of Ning. Already pushing 0.70" of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Chubbs said: Been thundering here for quite a while - Nam3k scenario playing out Weird radar loop down your way. It's like the storm is hitting a wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Long duration here. It's like it just keeps intensifying and backbuilding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, mshaffer526 said: Long duration here. It's like it just keeps intensifying and backbuilding. Congrats, backbuilding is hurting down here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 perking up before it gets here, let's see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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