irishbri74 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Slight risk posted today. Post obs in here : Decent amount of cloud debris out this with the MCs that fell apart. Let’s see how we look later on this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 a bonus 0.15" - 68F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 0.07” Sprinklers on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 .01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Sun already starting to break out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 We measured. The experimental HREF3 test period ended, haven't seen the NSSL lately. It was ok with the ongoing convection now; this is as good as it gets later with any organized clustering with more scattered hit/miss storms later in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Don't see cloud debris being an issue anywhere south of i78. I guess my one maybe issue would be being a bit displaced from best trigger which is north but not sure north has the instability like we will down here. Dry mid level on this morning runs not as robust, so wind threat still there but not as good looking as yesterdays soundings. Hail threat is there, but need cloud tops to really build up above 30k to really tap into freezing layer in atmosphere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Latest HRRR and earlier NAM seem to like northern and central NJ for storms later on. So...I guess that means congrats SNJ and PA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 I get why mesos are focusing storms to the north since best trigger is north but to me I'm not sure how much instability they get going. Looks pretty cloudy from i78 north for a while. Mesos could have right idea but off on location, I guess we will see 5 hours from now. I'd almost say best chance is probably i78 on south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 0.23" this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 I hope these clouds clear out soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 sun's out here now, but looks short-lived. I am hopeful, but not optimistic. feels like one of those 'puncher's chance' type days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I get why mesos are focusing storms to the north since best trigger is north but to me I'm not sure how much instability they get going. Looks pretty cloudy from i78 north for a while. Mesos could have right idea but off on location, I guess we will see 5 hours from now. I'd almost say best chance is probably i78 on south Maybe the organized cluster rain/storms is NNJ and isolated but potentially severe storms still in play south/west of that with more sun? We shall see... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 I like the area just south of the heavy cloud cover - I78/turnpike and east into NJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Parsley said: Maybe the organized cluster rain/storms is NNJ and isolated but potentially severe storms still in play south/west of that with more sun? We shall see... Could be stratiform rains up there, but to me svr threat looks i78 and south where better chances of sun and better instability. Just looks to cloudy north of ABE latitude to me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Parsley said: Maybe the organized cluster rain/storms is NNJ and isolated but potentially severe storms still in play south/west of that with more sun? We shall see... That’s my guess on how this plays out. I never like being mostly cloudy at 10am on a severe chance day. The last few years have always found a way to crush Snj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 The radar looks very busy to me out in central and eastern Pa. I think we might have a hard time clearing out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The radar looks very busy to me out in central and eastern Pa. I think we might have a hard time clearing out yea that rain that popped up around MDT def threw a wrench into things as it wasn't there an hour or so ago. It's going to be after that moves through will be the deciding factor on how much clearing evolves or doesn't evolve. Doesn't take much this time of year an hour or two of sun to get things going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 This is the area we need to see clear out as it comes east that’s circled. Right now it’s clouded up over the mtns. But my guess is once they go over the mtns and downslope we will see more clearing and that’s the window that gets the instability going around 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 56 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This is the area we need to see clear out as it comes east that’s circled. Right now it’s clouded up over the mtns. But my guess is once they go over the mtns and downslope we will see more clearing and that’s the window that gets the instability going around 1 1 hr later can see how cloud thickness has decreased in area circled and it’s more high cirrus clouds. Should continue to see more thinning out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Instability will not be an issue for us. The issue for some of us is going to be the trigger that ignites the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 From the CIRA / RAMMB site, definitely some clearing now back around Harrisburg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 This would be my best guess for best shot of Svr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Couple of other things. PWATs running 1.5-2” so heavy rainfall a possibility. Also we have decent shear overhead, while I’d bet against it can’t rule out an isolated tornado wherever this line gets going if it does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 The area by hazleton I believe is what a lot of the models were jumping on to hit nyc. Given instability isn’t that great that should swing through with limited Svr and just rainfall. We have to watch out for is the stuff out by Pittsburgh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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