Rainshadow Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Curious to see how this pans. The ongoing convection around Erie. PA was dampened too much by the 00z/06z models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 It's never easy to pinpoint these things. Mesomodels already off in their timing/placement of the cluster in NW PA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 You can move my last post in the other thread. Seems mesos are already off in timing/placement (it's faster/further south) of the morning convection in NW PA like you said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 My concern was timing. If that was over by 10-noon, I’m not sure if we would have enough time to destabilize. So the timing will be interesting in this. The later, the chances of severe goes up. Also have to see how cloud debris this am clears out. It’s not great, not bad right now.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Looking through Mount Holly's discussion this morning, they note that the convection that occurred around here earlier may have been due to an EML that wasn't really accounted for. Might help explain why the NW PA storms are over-performing. Speaking of which, the SVR warning associated with that line isn't just your run-of-the-mill warning criteria. They mention 70mph winds and half-dollar size hail. Pretty impressive for this early in the morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, ACwx said: Looking through Mount Holly's discussion this morning, they note that the convection that occurred around here earlier may have been due to an EML that wasn't really accounted for. Might help explain why the NW PA storms are over-performing. Speaking of which, the SVR warning associated with that line isn't just your run-of-the-mill warning criteria. They mention 70mph winds and half-dollar size hail. Pretty impressive for this early in the morning. Kinda odd. The EML was well forecasted to advect into the area by modeling. you can see it here: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Looking impressive so far. Definitely quicker and more Southerly on its approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 I think things are looking pretty decent for a svr threat. Models way off on placement of that feature as they are to slow and to far north. We have high cirrus clouds over the area now but there are breaks in the clouds. Temps at this hour are in the upper 70s with dews rising on sw flow. With breaks of clouds coming they should allow temps to get into mid 80s. Lapse rates are in the 7-8 range which is high for this area. CAPE is lacking but that should build as we get a bit more sun. We also have some low level shear that will also help in maybe an isolated Nado. Main risk is damaging winds and large hail with steep lapse rates. Timing of this looks to be between 1 and 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Yeah, this thing is charging southeast. North of that dashed line would be targeted as of now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Looks like a WATCH incoming shortly. edit: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Got a buddy in State College saying there's a lot of lightning with this line as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 sun shining, and what a line of storms ready to make @tombo82685's severe season dreams come true 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmister Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 A good time for another shameless plug of my radar tool: Looks like the HRRR is initializing a little weak with the MCS on this run. https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/ 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 I have a bad feeling I am going to be watching anvils and lightning to my north with this line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Beeline for PHL area. Plenty of clearing in advance of the fast moving line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: I have a bad feeling I am going to be watching anvils and lightning to my north with this line. keep an eye on development on the southern end of that line. Northern half of Lancaster Co looks good. upper level flow a bit more NW ahead of the line which might nudge it a bit south as it approaches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, susqushawn said: sun shining, and what a line of storms ready to make @tombo82685's severe season dreams come true I’ll bite on Svr when parameters meet a noteworthy event not 2 or 3 yawn cells. I called this like 5 days ago that Wednesday was to be the day to watch out. Just wasn’t sure on timing but since models are big tomenoff on this complex it looks legit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, jmister said: A good time for another shameless plug of my radar tool: Looks like the HRRR is initializing a little weak with the MCS on this run. https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/ In comparison to the NAM, it is golden: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 What the....!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 racing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 Wow...did not expect to see this so early. Looks like a beeline for Delco as someone else mentioned -- right now looking up we've got some high clouds but it's clearing so I imagine by the time the line reaches here we're going to have some solid CAPE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimCaruso Posted June 3, 2020 Report Share Posted June 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: What the....!!! Don’t remember seeing 100mph storm motions even in the Plains ! (Now down to 75mph but still...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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