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6/3 Enhanced Severe Observational Thread


Bananashadow
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My concern was timing. If that was over by 10-noon, I’m not sure if we would have enough time to destabilize. So the timing will be interesting in this. The later, the chances of severe goes up. Also have to see how cloud debris this am clears out. It’s not great, not bad right now..

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Looking through Mount Holly's discussion this morning, they note that the convection that occurred around here earlier may have been due to an EML that wasn't really accounted for. Might help explain why the NW PA storms are over-performing.

Speaking of which, the SVR warning associated with that line isn't just your run-of-the-mill warning criteria. They mention 70mph winds and half-dollar size hail. Pretty impressive for this early in the morning.

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3 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Looking through Mount Holly's discussion this morning, they note that the convection that occurred around here earlier may have been due to an EML that wasn't really accounted for. Might help explain why the NW PA storms are over-performing.

Speaking of which, the SVR warning associated with that line isn't just your run-of-the-mill warning criteria. They mention 70mph winds and half-dollar size hail. Pretty impressive for this early in the morning.

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Kinda odd. The EML was well forecasted to advect into the area by modeling. 
 

you can see it here: 

 

 

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I think things are looking pretty decent for a svr threat. Models way off on placement of that feature as they are to slow and to far north. We have high cirrus clouds over the area now but there are breaks in the clouds. Temps at this hour are in the upper 70s with dews rising on sw flow. With breaks of clouds coming they should allow temps to get into mid 80s. Lapse rates are in the 7-8 range which is high for this area. CAPE is lacking but that should build as we get a bit more sun. We also have some low level shear that will also help in maybe an isolated Nado. Main risk is damaging winds and large hail with steep lapse rates. Timing of this looks to be between 1 and 3 

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3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

I have a bad feeling I am going to be watching anvils and lightning to my north with this line.

keep an eye on development on the southern end of that line.  Northern half of Lancaster Co looks good.  upper level flow a bit more NW ahead of the line which might nudge it a bit south as it approaches

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17 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

sun shining, and what a line of storms ready to make @tombo82685's severe season dreams come true

I’ll bite on Svr when parameters meet a noteworthy event not 2 or 3 yawn cells. I called this like 5 days ago that Wednesday was to be the day to watch out. Just wasn’t sure on timing but since models are big tomenoff on this complex it looks legit 

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Wow...did not expect to see this so early. Looks like a beeline for Delco as someone else mentioned -- right now looking up we've got some high clouds but it's clearing so I imagine by the time the line reaches here we're going to have some solid CAPE.

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