Western Chester County Weather Analysis 1894-Present

[chescopawxman 1,163]

2 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

my condolences regarding your father's & aunt's passing

my dad grew up in the lower NE close to Northeast High & his back in the day weather nugget was that "our biggest snowstorms occur in March", technically not true however the late 40's thru early 60's did see significantly snowier than average MAR's

Thank you for the kind thoughts- it is appreciated!

I have to run the numbers but I highly suspect the recent March's are also well above normal snowfalls compared to past decades. It does seem in our current climate change cycle that we generally are moving to warmer falls and colder springs.....

[colonel_kurtz 3,336]

8 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

There was 17" on the ground with an AM low of 3 degrees on the 25th 0.49" of ZR and eventually plain rain fell that day -the high for the day was 39 degrees the next day the 26th saw 2.02" of rain with the temp soaring to 56 degrees dwindling the snow pack to only 4" on the morning of the 27th

 

In Lower Bucks that big cutter & 2" of rain completely wiped out a very healthy snow pack. That winter was so good that even when we lost we ending up winning as the melted snow & heavy rain created so much runoff that the subsequent flash freeze created the best sledding conditions ever. The frozen runoff never melted until the middle of March.

[chescopawxman 1,163]

1 minute ago, colonel_kurtz said:

In Lower Bucks that big cutter & 2" of rain completely wiped out a very healthy snow pack. That winter was so good that even when we lost we ending up winning as the melted snow & heavy rain created so much runoff that the subsequent flash freeze created the best sledding conditions ever. The frozen runoff never melted until the middle of March.

I remember it well! I had to walk about about 1.5 miles from my house to Archbishop Ryan HS and we crossed a field behind the football/soccer fields to get to the back of the school. I remember the non-stop solid as a rock snow cover and the care we had to take with our Catholic school shoes on to not fall on our ass!

[colonel_kurtz 3,336]

5 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

I remember it well! I had to walk about about 1.5 miles from my house to Archbishop Ryan HS and we crossed a field behind the football/soccer fields to get to the back of the school. I remember the non-stop solid as a rock snow cover and the care we had to take with our Catholic school shoes on to not fall on our ass!

Before we moved to Lower Bucks in 1976 I grew up on Chalfont Drive just a couple of blocks down from Ryan

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Yep! I grew up on Waldemire Drive toward Red Lion Road....played all my little league games at the Chalfont Playground just down the hill from Fitzpatrick School...

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Memories of February 2010 - 2 top 10 all-time snowstorms within 6 days 18.3" on the 6th and 26.8" on the 10th and on our way to our 2nd snowiest February on record at 62.8" - it also got East Nantmeal and yours truly into the Newspaper!

http://www.chescowx.com/East Nantmeal Tops region in latest snowfall.pdf

 

East Nantmeal Tops region in latest snowfall.pdf

[chescopawxman 1,163]

February 2021 - Climate Summary for Western Chester County PA

[Chubbs 4,238]

Finally got around to plotting PHL's temperature adjustments, which are calculated vs other regional stations. The chart is consistent with the local airport data that I posted upthread. PHL was too cool vs regional observations during the 60-80s, particularly the 1960s. Recently agreement has been much better, but phl has been too warm in some years. I partially attribute the relatively cool years to air pollution. It was much smoggier in my youth.

 

[Chubbs 4,238]

Below are decade averages for SE PA, PHL and Coatesville. The unadjusted PHL data does warm too much, vs other regional observations, particularly vs the 60s when PHL was relatively cool. PHL ADJ is very consistent with the SE PA regional average and with Coatesville and is preferred  when evaluating regional vs site specific temperature trends. 

 

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Winter weather analysis for Chester County PA. Dec-March months since 1894. Our current cycle of warming has produced 7 of the warmest winters since 2000...including the top 3. Conversely,  it has also delivered 3 of the coldest winters since 2000. When will the next colder cycle start?

[Chubbs 4,238]

22 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

Winter weather analysis for Chester County PA. Dec-March months since 1894. Our current cycle of warming has produced 7 of the warmest winters since 2000...including the top 3. Conversely,  it has also delivered 3 of the coldest winters since 2000. When will the next colder cycle start?

If you want to know when this warming cycle is going to end, you have to know what is causing it.

[chescopawxman 1,163]

41 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

If you want to know when this warming cycle is going to end, you have to know what is causing it.

It will run it's normal course as our changing climate always has.....when the return to colder occurs of course none of us can predict....

[Chubbs 4,238]

5 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

It will run it's normal course as our changing climate always has.....when the return to colder occurs of course none of us can predict....

You should improve your information sources, science has nailed the warming. You'll know what to expect.

[chescopawxman 1,163]

1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

You should improve your information sources, science has nailed the warming. You'll know what to expect.

Climate change is of course a fact and real....man made or being the main cause is of course not a fact - just a hypothesis - and not even sure a vast majority agree with said hypothesis

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/putting-the-con-in-consensus-not-only-is-there-no-97-per-cent-consensus-among-climate-scientists-many-misunderstand-core-issues

 

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Great article on the fact that while we can argue about the exact % of scientist who believe in the man made climate change theory....it is of course as this article clearly opines....the theory is not at all a scientific fact at this point - that cannot be disputed. Fact the world is round - made made climate change absolutely not fact.

https://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2019/07/03/science-settled-global-warming/1630013001/

[Chubbs 4,238]

1 hour ago, chescopawxman said:

Great article on the fact that while we can argue about the exact % of scientist who believe in the man made climate change theory....it is of course as this article clearly opines....the theory is not at all a scientific fact at this point - that cannot be disputed. Fact the world is round - made made climate change absolutely not fact.

https://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2019/07/03/science-settled-global-warming/1630013001/

Meh. This article is a junk science opinion piece like a million others, with the same handful of names.  Not worth getting into a back and forth.

 

 

 

 

 

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Facts don't care about feelings.....

[chescopawxman 1,163]

April finished with an average temp of 53.4 in East Nantmeal this is the 22nd warmest April with the top 5 warmest being 1921 - 57.5 / 2017 - 57.1 / 1941 - 56.1 / 1915 - 56.0 and 1942 at 55.6. As you can see in my comparison my Vantage Pro has been consistently running warmer than my other 2 stations and KMQS Airport....The Tempest and Ambient on my property are running virtually the same with 0 variation over the year to date and April for the month. I will keep an eye on this to see if the VP may be in need of replacing.

[chescopawxman 1,163]

On 4/15/2021 at 5:33 PM, chescopawxman said:

Great article on the fact that while we can argue about the exact % of scientist who believe in the man made climate change theory....it is of course as this article clearly opines....the theory is not at all a scientific fact at this point - that cannot be disputed. Fact the world is round - made made climate change absolutely not fact.

https://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2019/07/03/science-settled-global-warming/1630013001/

https://www.unsettledsciencebook.com/

Interesting new scientific review in the above book is coming out from another scientist.  I have already ordered! This will again attempt to correct the "settled science" voices depicted by some....as I always say it is of course not settled. Thought provoking point made in the upcoming liner notes "He dispels popular myths and unveils little-known truths: despite a dramatic rise in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures actually decreased from 1940 to 1970. What’s more, the models we use to predict the future aren’t able to accurately describe the climate of the past, suggesting they are deeply flawed. "

[Chubbs 4,238]

On 5/2/2021 at 10:15 AM, chescopawxman said:

https://www.unsettledsciencebook.com/

Interesting new scientific review in the above book is coming out from another scientist.  I have already ordered! This will again attempt to correct the "settled science" voices depicted by some....as I always say it is of course not settled. Thought provoking point made in the upcoming liner notes "He dispels popular myths and unveils little-known truths: despite a dramatic rise in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures actually decreased from 1940 to 1970. What’s more, the models we use to predict the future aren’t able to accurately describe the climate of the past, suggesting they are deeply flawed. "

Sure, you are the target audience for book sales. A couple of comments:

*) None of the "little know facts" are popular myths. For example Aerosols (smoke/haze) compensated for ghg between 1940-70, hence the lack of warming. This is well-predicted by climate models

*) Koonin accepts a fair amount of climate science. For instance he recognizes that substantial man-made warming has occurred since 1900.

*) Koonin is not a subject matter expert and not active in climate science. Climate scientists have debunked many of his claims. Two articles from scientists below:

2014

https://slate.com/technology/2014/10/the-wall-street-journal-and-steve-koonin-the-new-face-of-climate-change-inaction.html

Recent

https://quillette.com/2021/05/01/why-climate-science-is-like-the-rest-of-science/

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Some interesting quotes,thoughts and facts from both the book and a Wall Street Journal opinion

https://www.wsj.com/articles/unsettled-review-theconsensus-on-climate-11619383653

 

Despite the expected predictable dismissal of the author by some on this forum already - the WSJ states "Mr. Koonin’s science credentials are impeccable—unlike, say, those of one well-known Swedish teenager to whom the media affords great attention on climate matters. He has been a professor of physics at Caltech and served as the top scientist in Barack Obama’s Energy Department. The book is copiously referenced and relies on widely accepted government documents.

"Mr. Koonin (The book's author) is no “climate denier,” to use the concocted phrase used to shut down debate. The word “denier” is of course meant to associate skeptics of climate alarmism with Holocaust deniers."

"Mr. Koonin is persuasively skeptical. It’s a big problem, he says, when models can’t retroactively “predict” events that have already happened. And he notes that some of the “tuning” done to models so that they work better amounts to “cooking the books.”

"But science itself is not conducted by polls, regardless of how often we are urged to heed a “scientific consensus” on climate. As the science-trained novelist Michael Crichton summarized in a famous 2003 lecture at Caltech: “If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”

“Heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900” and “the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years"

"Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century"

Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago"

"But even if one remains unconvinced by his arguments, the right response is to debate the science. We’ll see if that happens in a world in which politicians assert the science is settled and plan astronomical levels of spending to replace the nation’s massive infrastructures with “green” alternatives. Never have so many spent so much public money on the basis of claims that are so unsettled. The prospects for a reasoned debate are not good. Good luck, Mr. Koonin."

 

 

 

[Chubbs 4,238]

9 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

 

Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago"

 

 

 

 

Losses from Greenland are accelerating. The other points aren't any better.

 

[Chubbs 4,238]

Here's Antarctica. Blue is surface balance driven by snowfall. Red is ice discharge driven by ocean melting. Purple is mass balance.

[chescopawxman 1,163]

Ryan Maue going off on the new "normal"  Like I always say the heat island impact is a problem....

"I started looking at number of 90°F days in various cities accounting for the new "normal" and it is straight up urban heat island. Not surprising. Cities really need to get off their asses and plant trees and change the urban landscape to provide quicker evening cooling."

[Chubbs 4,238]

Coatesville temperature data, smoothed with 5-year running average. After almost 50 years of warming, Coatesville is clear of past data. Particularly vs the adjusted data which agrees well with other regional and global data.