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COVID-19 check-in; Pfizer, Moderna, JNJ All Have Vaccines.


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1 hour ago, mshaffer526 said:

Really bad news about the J&J vaccine...ugh.

My arm was wicked sore from the first Pfizer shot for about 24 hours, went away completely after about 48.  Not looking forward to Phase 2, hah.

I got Pfizer #1 three and a half hours ago.  Minimal soreness so far but it's early.  Very happy to have finally gotten it!

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2nd shot today, literally a minute ago. Getting ready to enjoy all that I have been missing.  Thank you scientific/medical community. 

So I think you're definitely right about chloroquine and it only helping some people. Im a RN in an ICU and in my experience so far with these COVID patients, it doesnt help everyone. It seems the ear

To reiterate this point--   Since we've had vaccines out there in the public domain (think March-ish) and people have been "fully vaccinated" we've had 558 total ICU patients on ventilators,

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It appears that New York City may be the first place in the U.S. where vaccines plus natural infection immunity are starting to get close to the herd immunity threshold. Both cases and hospitalizations there are dropping pretty noticeably (with the caveat that the most recent several days may have a reporting lag). Logically it makes sense given how NYC has basically been the epicenter for infection since the pandemic began, there is probably a ton of natural immunity in the city. Might be too early in Spring for seasonality to be the sole cause of these declines.

Over the next few weeks similar trends may start to pop up in other large cities, perhaps even New Jersey as a whole since we seem to follow whatever happens in NYC.

 

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

It appears that New York City may be the first place in the U.S. where vaccines plus natural infection immunity are starting to get close to the herd immunity threshold. Both cases and hospitalizations there are dropping pretty noticeably (with the caveat that the most recent several days may have a reporting lag). Logically it makes sense given how NYC has basically been the epicenter for infection since the pandemic began, there is probably a ton of natural immunity in the city. Might be too early in Spring for seasonality to be the sole cause of these declines.

Over the next few weeks similar trends may start to pop up in other large cities, perhaps even New Jersey as a whole since we seem to follow whatever happens in NYC.

 

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Yesterday was the first day since February 1st that New York City on a population weighed basis had a below average share of new cases for NY State.  40% vs 43% or 44% of the state's population.  This does have meaning as coming out of the holidays NYC was only averaging around 33% of the state's cases and then either the UK Variant or their home grown variant took over and they peaked I believe on March 9th with 58% of the state's new cases. Since then their share has been on a slow decline. This has as much to do about natural immunity (820K confirmed cases probably closer to 2.5 million) as it does about vaccinations as they are not rushing to get needles into their arms in The Bronx & Brooklyn. 

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On 4/16/2021 at 7:48 AM, ACwx said:

It appears that New York City may be the first place in the U.S. where vaccines plus natural infection immunity are starting to get close to the herd immunity threshold. Both cases and hospitalizations there are dropping pretty noticeably (with the caveat that the most recent several days may have a reporting lag). Logically it makes sense given how NYC has basically been the epicenter for infection since the pandemic began, there is probably a ton of natural immunity in the city. Might be too early in Spring for seasonality to be the sole cause of these declines.

Over the next few weeks similar trends may start to pop up in other large cities, perhaps even New Jersey as a whole since we seem to follow whatever happens in NYC.

 

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I was crunching some numbers out this morning and we have to be close to be putting in a ceiling unless everyone starts holding covid patient parties. 

NY State antibody study had 20% of NYC population testing positive for Covid last early May.  Since then 4% of population diagnosed with Covid and 23% of their population totally vaccinated.  47% total.

That decline in cases is not unreasonable given what is occurring in Israel.

On 2/20 Israel reached 34% of their population fully vaccinated. They had 8% of their population naturally infected.  It was a little bouncy for a while until they reached 43% fully vaccinated and then the free fall started.

Israel's CFR is 0.8%, ours is 1.8%.  So modestly we probably have had twice as many cases as diagnosed. 20% of our population infected and 24% of our population totally vaccinated.  44% vs 42%.  There is some overlap between people who have had covid and been vaccinated, another unknown.  All in all we should be close to that ceiling being completed.

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Not to throw cold water on your stats, but Dr. Faucci says we need 85% vaccinated to be safe.

 "At least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates, Fauci explained.

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1st Pfizer a week ago.   Zero affects - not even sore at injection.    2nd on the 30th.   Believe I already had it early March '20 after a sojourn to the Philly flower show with a follow up visit to the terminal market.    Glad to see NH has lifted the mask mandate so people and businesses have the opportunity to make their own choices.    Wish I could be there full time especially after yesterday's mid-April snowfall.

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15 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Not to throw cold water on your stats, but Dr. Faucci says we need 85% vaccinated to be safe.

 "At least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates, Fauci explained.

 Then if we keep the same rate of vaccination we have had the past ten days, we get there in August. 

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On 4/18/2021 at 3:24 PM, Harbourton said:

Not to throw cold water on your stats, but Dr. Faucci says we need 85% vaccinated to be safe.

 "At least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates, Fauci explained.

Regardless of how we may feel about Dr. Fauci (there are plenty of opinions - he has not been perfect, contrary to many popular beliefs), I'm not sure his statement will really apply to a real-world setting.

Israel has been in the news quite a bit for how well they've been vaccinating, so let's look at their data. So far about 62% of their population has received the first dose (and I believe around 55% are fully vaccinated). Israel is averaging 18 new cases per million people while the U.S. still has a rate about 11 times higher. My point is that case counts in the U.S. should fall an exceptional amount well before reaching an 85% vaccination threshold, even if it is not quite to the extent that they've fallen in Israel.

More importantly, there will come a time in July / August where any U.S. adult who wants a vaccine will have already gotten it. We cannot continue to have restrictions after this point! Other than for some international travel and things like that, based on the science there will be no reason to restrict interactions without masks and social distancing. The CDC last week reported 5800 infections out of 77 MILLION fully vaccinated people, and only 7% of those 5800 ended up in the hospital. In kids, the virus is shown to have milder effects and lower transmission, so once most of the adults are vaccinated there really shouldn't be much to fear anymore (plus younger teens will start to get vaccinated fairly soon anyway).

Seems that the U.S. is in the top of the 9th inning with this pandemic, and these vaccines are 2008 Brad Lidge.

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Got my first vaccine shot this afternoon up in Lehigh Co. Well worth the 45 minute drive each way.  👍

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Got my second Moderna dose. Just in time. I need to fly to Denver a week from tomorrow to root for my daughter's hockey team at the USA Hockey Nationals. 

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20 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Got my second Moderna dose. Just in time. I need to fly to Denver a week from tomorrow to root for my daughter's hockey team at the USA Hockey Nationals. 

Congrats on both counts!

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2 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

Had the second dose of Moderna yesterday. Much different experience from the first which was virtually free of symptoms. Today I have sore arm, no appetite and chills.

Your reaction sounds alot like my wife's was.  Then should be back to normal tomorrow.  Congrats on being done!

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On 4/20/2021 at 8:48 AM, ACwx said:

Regardless of how we may feel about Dr. Fauci (there are plenty of opinions - he has not been perfect, contrary to many popular beliefs), I'm not sure his statement will really apply to a real-world setting.

Israel has been in the news quite a bit for how well they've been vaccinating, so let's look at their data. So far about 62% of their population has received the first dose (and I believe around 55% are fully vaccinated). Israel is averaging 18 new cases per million people while the U.S. still has a rate about 11 times higher. My point is that case counts in the U.S. should fall an exceptional amount well before reaching an 85% vaccination threshold, even if it is not quite to the extent that they've fallen in Israel.

More importantly, there will come a time in July / August where any U.S. adult who wants a vaccine will have already gotten it. We cannot continue to have restrictions after this point! Other than for some international travel and things like that, based on the science there will be no reason to restrict interactions without masks and social distancing. The CDC last week reported 5800 infections out of 77 MILLION fully vaccinated people, and only 7% of those 5800 ended up in the hospital. In kids, the virus is shown to have milder effects and lower transmission, so once most of the adults are vaccinated there really shouldn't be much to fear anymore (plus younger teens will start to get vaccinated fairly soon anyway).

Seems that the U.S. is in the top of the 9th inning with this pandemic, and these vaccines are 2008 Brad Lidge.

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Yes it is a survey. It is not as high as the Delphi, but it is encouraging to see the actual total percentage rising.   vaccine.png.9ac3423f11e788898cfc1e693903974b.png

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Haven't posted in this thread in a while--congrats to everyone getting their vaccines.  Received my first shot 12/24/20 (little injection site soreness, that's it), and my second 1/22/21 (felt fluish the night of, slept it off and felt fine in morning).

A disturbing thing that we have seen is three patients in the ICU in the last few weeks contracted COVID post-full vaccination with Moderna or Pfizer.  Two passed.  One was on immunosuppressant therapy, which likely significantly limited the effectiveness of the vaccine, but notable regardless.  We are well into another surge here.  My ICU has been completely full for two weeks, my one unit was re-re-re-transformed into a COVID unit, and we've been losing 1-2 per day here since late-March.  Patients we're seeing now are tending to be YOUNGER (40s-60s).  We're also seeing people return who HAD COVID with "long COVID."  We're seeing patients with extensive pulmonary fibrosis post-COVID.

Even more disturbing. we're also seeing 40% cancellation rates each day for vaccine appointments at the county site our hospital is helping with.  There is even talk of moving appointments and closing the site down 1-2 days per week because since the J&J news, vaccine demand has plummeted, at least at this particular site.  Can't speak for pharmacies or other areas, but we've seen a definitive and substantial downtick in vaccine appointments.  The counties my hospital primarily serves are at 28-29% vaccinated.

I'm going to also put this out there just for the sake of argument.  This is my 16th year in an ICU, and I can tell you that the number of cases of things like influenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), human parainfluenzavirus (HPIV), and other detectable virii was the LOWEST I've ever seen it--by orders of magnitude.  I know everyone hates the masks--hell, I do too--and there are "studies" out there that suggest they have negligible impact on transmission of COVID-19, but I will tell you--they're doing something.  We see flu deaths every year, also other viral syndromes.  This year there have been virtually none.  No conspiracy here--it's about handwashing and taking precautions, and wearing a mask, especially in closed in public places.  That's my ask of you--be safe.  If you're going to go into an tight closed in area, do so with caution, wear the mask.  I don't want to see any more people die.

Good luck and be well all.  If you're so inclined to get the vaccine, please do so.  Should you make the choice to not receive the vaccine, be safe however you can.

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29 minutes ago, Tiburon said:

Haven't posted in this thread in a while--congrats to everyone getting their vaccines.  Received my first shot 12/24/20 (little injection site soreness, that's it), and my second 1/22/21 (felt fluish the night of, slept it off and felt fine in morning).

A disturbing thing that we have seen is three patients in the ICU in the last few weeks contracted COVID post-full vaccination with Moderna or Pfizer.  Two passed.  One was on immunosuppressant therapy, which likely significantly limited the effectiveness of the vaccine, but notable regardless.  We are well into another surge here.  My ICU has been completely full for two weeks, my one unit was re-re-re-transformed into a COVID unit, and we've been losing 1-2 per day here since late-March.  Patients we're seeing now are tending to be YOUNGER (40s-60s).  We're also seeing people return who HAD COVID with "long COVID."  We're seeing patients with extensive pulmonary fibrosis post-COVID.

Even more disturbing. we're also seeing 40% cancellation rates each day for vaccine appointments at the county site our hospital is helping with.  There is even talk of moving appointments and closing the site down 1-2 days per week because since the J&J news, vaccine demand has plummeted, at least at this particular site.  Can't speak for pharmacies or other areas, but we've seen a definitive and substantial downtick in vaccine appointments.  The counties my hospital primarily serves are at 28-29% vaccinated.

I'm going to also put this out there just for the sake of argument.  This is my 16th year in an ICU, and I can tell you that the number of cases of things like influenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), human parainfluenzavirus (HPIV), and other detectable virii was the LOWEST I've ever seen it--by orders of magnitude.  I know everyone hates the masks--hell, I do too--and there are "studies" out there that suggest they have negligible impact on transmission of COVID-19, but I will tell you--they're doing something.  We see flu deaths every year, also other viral syndromes.  This year there have been virtually none.  No conspiracy here--it's about handwashing and taking precautions, and wearing a mask, especially in closed in public places.  That's my ask of you--be safe.  If you're going to go into an tight closed in area, do so with caution, wear the mask.  I don't want to see any more people die.

Good luck and be well all.  If you're so inclined to get the vaccine, please do so.  Should you make the choice to not receive the vaccine, be safe however you can.

You could also argue that the lockdown rules had more of an affect on non-covid viral infection rates than masks. Do we really want to go there?

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Had the first dose of Pfizer yesterday.  No effects besides a little bit of a sore arm.  We’ll see how the second dose is in a few weeks.

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Also thought I'd share that both my Mom and Dad have gotten both doses of Moderna now, and neither of them had issues and they both have some type of pre-existing condition. All both of them had was sore arm in the injection area. My bro got his first Moderna as well and he had no issues other than the same sore arm in location of injection. My bro and I go for our second Moderna's on Thu 5/6 and Fri 5/7 back to back days at WCU South Campus. At least the weather should start warming up soon long term based on what I'm seeing. This might be best for another thread on here this part, but seems really windy lately, especially for late April. I'm all for warm weather haha :)

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19 hours ago, Harbourton said:

You could also argue that the lockdown rules had more of an affect on non-covid viral infection rates than masks. Do we really want to go there?

I'd go with the swiss cheese model.  It is more accurate than the GFS and also tastier.  Every bit helps.  It didn't hurt either there was not much of a flu season in the southern hemisphere last summer.  swiss.JPG.eade36ec0383f7910db4a12b4d6b3210.JPG

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