COVID-19 check-in; Pfizer, Moderna, JNJ All Have Vaccines.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

On 3/28/2020 at 4:19 PM, snowlurker said:

Since fewer of us are following weather and probably following the pandemic, I thought I'd start a thread for members to check in with one another. 

Let's please keep politics out of it.

Is it really that difficult to follow?  Everyone knows what a shithole Facebook, et al are because of all the damn political bickering. 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

This is really good after just one shot and consider the people who are getting the vaccine first are most vulnerable to bad outcomes.

Maybe this is pie in the sky, but can I not have to re-lock this thread yet again because of another political bull$hit post?  Just asking.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccines-protection-uk/2021/02/22/216b1dac-751a-11eb-9489-8f7dacd51e75_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3017522%2F603531519d2fda4c88efa22d%2F5eecf38dae7e8a436002c203%2F15%2F70%2F603531519d2fda4c88efa22d&fbclid=IwAR3HaSQDcwtywY5ySAacNWReEBlKGxnTB9IExklhxquBN5Y3DLU9Gmt3DuU

[snowlurker 1,044]

7 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This is really good after just one shot and consider the people who are getting the vaccine first are most vulnerable to bad outcomes.

Maybe this is pie in the sky, but can I not have to re-lock this thread yet again because of another political bull$hit post?  Just asking.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccines-protection-uk/2021/02/22/216b1dac-751a-11eb-9489-8f7dacd51e75_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3017522%2F603531519d2fda4c88efa22d%2F5eecf38dae7e8a436002c203%2F15%2F70%2F603531519d2fda4c88efa22d&fbclid=IwAR3HaSQDcwtywY5ySAacNWReEBlKGxnTB9IExklhxquBN5Y3DLU9Gmt3DuU

Good news indeed 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

8 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Good news indeed 

I hope @Tiburon will correct me immediately if I am wrong. As far as the UK Variant goes, the OMG it will spread like wildfire was overblown.  The Doctors at This Week In Virology thought it was more a behavioral/societal issue in the UK (pre holiday and pre announced lockdown activity) and not as much about it being spread more easily. I had a friend who had it bad for a ten week period, his pneumonia just cleared earlier this month so I am not underplaying the (what seems to be random) severity of this illness.  Even if the South African variant were to become the predominant one, the J&J vaccine seems to keep you from going to that dark place even if more people would get a milder version of the illness.   

[ACwx 531]

On top of all the other good news is how quickly transmission has dropped here in the U.S. over the last 4-6 weeks. First half of January we were averaging almost a quarter million new cases per day - now it's about 65,000 and dropping fast. This is why the outlook regarding the summer has become cautiously optimistic. If the variants really are more transmissible, that would have been a bigger problem if your baseline was like 80,000 cases/day come late March. If the numbers are much lower like 30,000 cases/day at that time, then there is much less room for the community spread to grow once the variants become dominant.

Of course the vaccine distribution outlook is looking great as well. As long as we don't get any more 1-in-120-year cold snaps dipping to the Texas coast, it should ramp up considerably (Drew Armstrong on Twitter has some great data about this). For some reason I'm skeptical of J&J being able to deliver 20 million doses in March since I've heard they've been having manufacturing issues, but I hope I'm wrong and even after March their production should ramp up too. I hope people stop focusing so much on their 66% efficacy rate and instead talk about the 80-85+% reduction in going to the hospital.

Crossing my fingers but I hope this is one of the most lively and celebratory summers the nation has ever seen. We deserve it.

 

[frankdp23 1,190]

4 minutes ago, ACwx said:

On top of all the other good news is how quickly transmission has dropped here in the U.S. over the last 4-6 weeks. First half of January we were averaging almost a quarter million new cases per day - now it's about 65,000 and dropping fast. This is why the outlook regarding the summer has become cautiously optimistic. If the variants really are more transmissible, that would have been a bigger problem if your baseline was like 80,000 cases/day come late March. If the numbers are much lower like 30,000 cases/day at that time, then there is much less room for the community spread to grow once the variants become dominant.

Of course the vaccine distribution outlook is looking great as well. As long as we don't get any more 1-in-120-year cold snaps dipping to the Texas coast, it should ramp up considerably (Drew Armstrong on Twitter has some great data about this). For some reason I'm skeptical of J&J being able to deliver 20 million doses in March since I've heard they've been having manufacturing issues, but I hope I'm wrong and even after March their production should ramp up too. I hope people stop focusing so much on their 66% efficacy rate and instead talk about the 80-85+% reduction in going to the hospital.

Crossing my fingers but I hope this is one of the most lively and celebratory summers the nation has ever seen. We deserve it.

 

Also what seems to get overlooked for some odd reason, the 100% prevention of death for JnJ vaccine.  That is best news to me.  

[Parsley 5,938]

My in laws in Chester Co. get their 2nd vaccines on Friday. My parents on Long Island are set to get them in March. Very thankful. 

I haven't seen my parents in person in 12 months. They haven't seen my kids since Christmas 2019. Better days are ahead!

[frankdp23 1,190]

3 minutes ago, Parsley said:

My in laws in Chester Co. get their 2nd vaccines on Friday. My parents on Long Island are set to get them in March. Very thankful. 

My mother gets her 1st tomorrow, and my mother in law gets her 2nd next week.  Very thankful as well.  My work (Pfizer) is following CDC guidelines, but is offering shot to employees.  Right now it is down to 44 or older.  Missed it by 2 years!  

[Parsley 5,938]

Just now, frankdp23 said:

My mother gets her 1st tomorrow, and my mother in law gets her 2nd next week.  Very thankful as well.  My work is following CDC guidelines, but is offering shot to employees.  Right now it is down to 44 or older.  Missed it by 2 years!  

Yeah, my brother in law who works for Pfizer is able to get it (think he is 45). Good for you guys, hopefully you'll be up soon. 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

7 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

I hope @Tiburon will correct me immediately if I am wrong. As far as the UK Variant goes, the OMG it will spread like wildfire was overblown.  The Doctors at This Week In Virology thought it was more a behavioral/societal issue in the UK (pre holiday and pre announced lockdown activity) and not as much about it being spread more easily. I had a friend who had it bad for a ten week period, his pneumonia just cleared earlier this month so I am not underplaying the (what seems to be random) severity of this illness.  Even if the South African variant were to become the predominant one, the J&J vaccine seems to keep you from going to that dark place even if more people would get a milder version of the illness.   

I will half refute my own question. This Doctor is great. The videos are short and he just talks about the science.

My wife gets her second shot tomorrow (I am scheduled for my first on April 12th).

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

3 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

Also what seems to get overlooked for some odd reason, the 100% prevention of death for JnJ vaccine.  That is best news to me.  

Plus it gets better with time and I think this also holds for the South African variant.

[ACwx 531]

3 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

Also what seems to get overlooked for some odd reason, the 100% prevention of death for JnJ vaccine.  That is best news to me.  

Yea exactly, I just brought up hospitalizations since that's the metric that will probably determine how soon life can return to "normal" but definitely the ultimate goal is to stop people from dying.

[Tiburon 217]

8 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

I hope @Tiburon will correct me immediately if I am wrong. As far as the UK Variant goes, the OMG it will spread like wildfire was overblown.  The Doctors at This Week In Virology thought it was more a behavioral/societal issue in the UK (pre holiday and pre announced lockdown activity) and not as much about it being spread more easily. I had a friend who had it bad for a ten week period, his pneumonia just cleared earlier this month so I am not underplaying the (what seems to be random) severity of this illness.  Even if the South African variant were to become the predominant one, the J&J vaccine seems to keep you from going to that dark place even if more people would get a milder version of the illness.   

I think this was the first time I was paged here lol.

You are exactly right Tony.  Very overblown.  As overblown as NAM snowfall maps.  As long as everyone stays with masking and social distancing, we should be able to weather any variant that rolls around.  Take for example influenza this year.  Our cases of influenza are as low as they've ever been in my years of practice.  Why?  Because people are worried about COVID and are doing those things that the CDC recommended all along--frequent handwashing, etc.  The masks and social distancing are helping with the flu the same way they help with COVID.  

This should just serve as a comparison study to show people exactly how virulent SARS-CoV2 actually is.  DESPITE masking and social distancing which has SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED (I almost want to say "wiped out") influenza infections in the area, SARS-CoV2 continues to spread, albeit and thankfully at a vastly slower rate than in previous months:

This makes my heart happy and it shows we're heading in the right direction.  My hospital has 53 positive inpatients today and 9 ICU positive, and that's the lowest numbers we've seen since probably mid-October.  Get your vaccines everyone, as soon as you can get them.  Remember, the endpoint isn't necessarily not to ever get the virus, it's to keep you from running into me once you get it, and these vaccines are showing that they work extremely well in preventing severe illness in even those few patients who get infected with SARS-CoV2 post-vaccination.

[Chubbs 4,125]

Had my second Pfizer yesterday. Feeling it today - very sore arm, malaise, low fever

[Rainshadow6.6 10,360]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-johnson-johnson-fd/u-s-fda-advisory-panel-votes-in-favor-of-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN2AQ316

[Chubbs 4,125]

On 2/25/2021 at 8:27 AM, Chubbs said:

Had my second Pfizer yesterday. Feeling it today - very sore arm, malaise, low fever

Started feeling better by 24-hour mark after vaccine and back to normal now.

[Parsley 5,938]

1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

Started feeling better by 24-hour mark after vaccine and back to normal now.

Good to hear!

[snowlurker 1,044]

One question that I have never heard a conclusive answer to is: how likely is it that someone who has been immunized can still shed meaningful amounts of virus?

Does anyone have a reliable source answering it?

[frankdp23 1,190]

JnJ eua yesterday!

[Chubbs 4,125]

16 hours ago, snowlurker said:

One question that I have never heard a conclusive answer to is: how likely is it that someone who has been immunized can still shed meaningful amounts of virus?

Does anyone have a reliable source answering it?

Good article on issue - Provides background and discusses a couple of recent studies

https://www.wired.com/story/we-still-dont-know-how-well-covid-vaccines-stop-transmission/

[snowlurker 1,044]

3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Good article on issue - Provides background and discusses a couple of recent studies

https://www.wired.com/story/we-still-dont-know-how-well-covid-vaccines-stop-transmission/

thanks Charlie!