Jump to content

Winter Discussion -- Because it's never too early (or late)


Recommended Posts

I will say, I think the PAC will cooperate quite nicely. I'm just cautious about the NAO region. I know the SSTA show a "textbook" look

For -NAO, I wonder if it manages to go negative? Anyone have any outlooks on that?

 

Dude, August 8th, how could you forget.  ;)

 

http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/topic/104-the-seven-faces-of-october-and-then-winter/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will say, I think the PAC will cooperate quite nicely. I'm just cautious about the NAO region. I know the SSTA show a "textbook" look

For -NAO, I wonder if it manages to go negative? Anyone have any outlooks on that?

 

Here is another nao predictor using the qbo during fall months heading into winter

post-1-0-20318800-1415114372.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys, 

when posting paid site (wxbell images, wsi , accuwx etxc)... If it wasn't posted on twitter by the publisher or Met ( who usually have permission), please refrain from posting the image. We don't want anyone getting jammed up. Our side or yours. 

example:

accuwx twitter posted euro ensembles- Thats ok to post here and long as its linked. 

my friend posted his accuwx euro ensembles on facebook so i'll post on this website- not ok. 

Sorry  :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good call. I wasn't sure if there were any more updates on it. Never doubted you tony!

Meanwhile, here's the October snow cover in Eurasia:

dbe48d7bf26d52e151973d071f67f0af.jpg

2nd only to 1976

 

16 of the last 22.  That number had to be healthy, it was practically above normal every day of the month. Rutgers got that in fast this year. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's heading into winter months.

 

Tom,

 

Thanks!   To expand upon your winter snowfall estimate. Using the Eurasian snow cover the opposite of Octobers like this one is pretty much a lock of a winter being DOA.   Since we have started this run in the mid 90s, 9 of the 16 above average Eurasian snow cover winters have been colder and snowier than average. While for snow that may not sound like much, its still about a 25% increase over climatology.  The last six Octobers where the Eurasian snow coverage has been less than average, all have had mean temperatures greater than 34.5F and all have had less than 23" of snow.  I feel confident about a colder winter (which normally means more snow) because of the strong +PDO leading into it, its a stronger temperature correlator in PHL than positive Eurasian snow coverage.  NAO is still a wild card. I personally dont think the Atlantic is great and even Jack's NAO outlook method dont always work.  But, because of the Pacific, if the NAO does average negative, its a bonus.  I know this is an index number but 62% of all winters since 1950 have averaged a -AO, but only 42% have averaged a -NAO, so even they dont always go hand in hand.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QBO still dropping through October but the rate of fall is slowing. 2014   13.13   12.68   11.72    7.15   -2.81  -13.98  -19.29  -21.64  -23.24  -23.86 -999.00 -999.00 

do you know what hpa that is at? Because if you look at the plot heading into early November, the lows looked like they occurred mid october, if you go by 30hpa. Right now, if going by 30hpa it's between -20 and -10

 

time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_OND_EQ_2014.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

do you know what hpa that is at? Because if you look at the plot heading into early November, the lows looked like they occurred mid october, if you go by 30hpa. Right now, if going by 30hpa it's between -20 and -10

 

 

 

30 hPA  is the one that is widely used. Agree chart above looks like it should have peaked in Sept. Maybe Wavebreak can explain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Liking 02-03 more and more as a analog. Early cold push then relax then the hammer drops in for Jan/Feb. 

I think people's memories of Dec 2002 are clouded by 12/5 and the Xmas storm but it was pretty mild overall from 12/10-1/10 that winter until said hammer did indeed drop. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...