Rainshadow Posted February 15, 2020 Report Share Posted February 15, 2020 Barney IX (Feb 20th or 21st) which is on its way to suppressing any snowy pcpn chance so far south, I might not even have to apologize to the GFS. GFS found religion on the 12th (the magic day 8 or 9). Prior runs were warmer. This so far has been consistent since with some of the lowest predicted thicknesses of the season, but only so so mins, still in the 20s, even mid 20s for PHL. Sometimes the GFS is too top heavy with the cold within the trop, sometimes it's just too plain cold. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Barney X will follow for the last days of Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 On 2/15/2020 at 6:57 PM, Rainshadow said: Barney IX (Feb 20th or 21st) which is on its way to suppressing any snowy pcpn chance so far south, I might not even have to apologize to the GFS. GFS found religion on the 12th (the magic day 8 or 9). Prior runs were warmer. This so far has been consistent since with some of the lowest predicted thicknesses of the season, but only so so mins, still in the 20s, even mid 20s for PHL. Sometimes the GFS is too top heavy with the cold within the trop, sometimes it's just too plain cold. Time will tell. Low PHL thickness was 518. Have to wait on Saturday morning min before evaluating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 PHL lowest ended being 21F, not as cold as the Euro that had teens for at least some forecasts, but lower than some of the GFS's forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ok, here are the results. The GFS didn't discover Barney until day 9 (12th). Prior, it was generally too warm. Also explains why axis of heaviest snow (and it was snowing in PHL) on the forgive me run was too north . It eventually (thicknesses) became too cold and this also explains the drop off to no snow in VA/NC because the cold air was wrongly predicted to drop too south. It slowly warmed (thicknesses) closer to verification time, I'd say lock in closeness 4 days out. Lowest mins were always in the 20s. The GFS does recognize urban areas (unlike the Euro which had PHL in the teens), but this is the second straight Barney in a row where it gave the urban effect too much credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 A wave 2 peak with this cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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