Barney VIII (Feb 14th & 15th) Evaluation Is In. IF There Is One Barney Thread To Look At, It's This One.

[Rainshadow]

This is the flip of most of the beyond day 8 patterns we have seen this winter.  This Barney excursion really didn't start having traction until about Feb 6th & 7th.  Yes there was a GFS run here, there beyond day 8, but even inside day 8 there are going to be GFS runs that are going to verify too high (by a margin) on predicted thicknesses. 

 

[ACwx]

Last 4 GFS runs. Even Barney, like everything else this winter, is trending weaker and less exciting overall. Yes cold is exciting lol

[tombo82685]

19 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Last 4 GFS runs. Even Barney, like everything else this winter, is trending weaker and less exciting overall. Yes cold is exciting lol

 

gfs was way to cold to begin with. just fun to get gigi fired up over it 

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs was way to cold to begin with. just fun to get gigi fired up over it 

Actually 8 to 10 days out the GFS is going to be too warm, it had no Barney at all.  Yeah it then does it let’s tank everything.   But, This looks like the  most too warm model runs (as Measured by thicknesses) it is going to have this year with any of the alleged Barneys.

[tombo82685]

Time for barney IX

[Rainshadow]

45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Time for barney IX

Oh Barney needs to try much harder than this.

Right now Barney's affects look like:

 

[tombo82685]

waiting for Barney IX

[Rainshadow]

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

waiting for Barney IX

After Barney VIII does this:

 

[Rainshadow]

BTW Barney IX 12z/13th GFS run predicted min of 22F is 4 degrees below normal.  Barney is more like:

[tombo82685]

eps now down to 17 for philly during the period. So 10 degrees below norm there. Highs in the mid 30s, so another 10 below, not bad. Pretty amazing to see them colder than gfs

[Rainshadow]

13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps now down to 17 for philly during the period. So 10 degrees below norm there. Highs in the mid 30s, so another 10 below, not bad. Pretty amazing to see them colder than gfs

I am writing the model runs down, I was just waiting for this one to run its course before starting the next thread.

[Rainshadow]

I have to make sure with 1 pm ob, but looks like lowest temp for PHL is 14F, lowest thickness 517.

[Rainshadow]

[tombo82685]

5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I have to make sure with 1 pm ob, but looks like lowest temp for PHL is 14F, lowest thickness 517.

Moral of the story, never and I mean never ever underestimate Barney 

[tombo82685]

Barney X possibly on deck as well

[tombo82685]

On 2/13/2020 at 2:29 PM, Rainshadow said:

After Barney VIII does this:

 

nope, no teletubby here. Never under estimate barney

[Rainshadow]

20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

nope, no teletubby here. Never under estimate barney

I would have to go back to Barney IV for an underestimation of Barney by the GFS. Last 12 forecast runs prior by the GFS had 19F or 20F for a low for PHL.  This was more of an advection night than I thought and the north winds from the city did not matter.  I know NYC sometimes does surprise low with North winds,  air mass bypasses Ontario,  so am surmizing this is a combo of both.  Unlike this Barney which was pretty erratic,  Barney IX is starting steady.

[Rainshadow]

This one was a great evaluation, because it was not one sided at all (oh you GFS being too cold).  The period evaluation started with the GFS being oh too cold on a couple of those dynamite 18z runs and then the model lost the  cold air.  It didn't really find it again until February 6th, 8 days before.  One could see how it was getting there on the 4th only to have some bad (in this case warm) forecast throw it off track for about 24 hours.  The same needing 24 hours to purge occurred again on the 8th (too warm) and the 10th (too cold).  The 11th, three days before, were its best forecasts for PHL.  After that while the thicknesses were pretty good, it either had too much of an urban heat island affect or underestimated the low level cold air as winds were north bypassing Lake Ontario or went into radiational cooling mode and the minimum temperatures were consistently too warm for PHL.

Lasatly I can't go back to see this in all cases, but this one had a -NAM index which may be a good sign that the GFS is onto something and not just on something when it comes to cold snaps.