tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. 18z gefs hinting at similar evolution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 can see on the euro the strat is starting to get better aligned for colder air to be transported into the US we go from here to here by day 10 gotta get those warm anoms into AK or scand 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 MJO wise there is good agreement betwee OLR and VP maps. The vp maps show two areas of convection, one moving through phases 8 and 1 with another wave developing in phase 2 moving into phase 3 towards middle of Feb. Roundy plots generally showing the same thing with main forcing from 8 going into 1-2-3 into mid feb. These are all colder phases for Feb. They Also show a strong kelvin wave developing in phase 5 at the end of Jan that moves quickly into 6-7 before dying in 8 by feb 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 euro continues to get better and better with start look towards start of Feb.Can see see how strat PV is aligned now more north south and the big warm anoms that were centered over central Canada has moved more towards Greenland and parts of Europe while another area develops pver NPAC. Can see how the pv is starting to get stretched out due to an increase in wave 2 hit. The look is getting better for transporting cold into the US. Need to get this to rotate a bit more so we get the warming more into Europe and towards AK. Chances are increasing though of colder changes strat related towards beginning of FEB if this holds up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: euro continues to get better and better with start look towards start of Feb.Can see see how strat PV is aligned now more north south and the big warm anoms that were centered over central Canada has moved more towards Greenland and parts of Europe while another area develops pver NPAC. Can see how the pv is starting to get stretched out due to an increase in wave 2 hit. The look is getting better for transporting cold into the US. Need to get this to rotate a bit more so we get the warming more into Europe and towards AK. Chances are increasing though of colder changes strat related towards beginning of FEB if this holds up GEFS continue to say no. But perhaps that’s a good thing lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. One would think that where the MJO phases will be during the first half of the month, that modeling "should" trend colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity. It's always darkest before dawn. /apologies for the banter-y post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, PreserveJon said: It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity. It's always darkest before dawn. /apologies for the banter-y post Eternal is a bit strong...until Tombo posts a dancing weenie, we are still in the midst of apprehension Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, PreserveJon said: It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity. It's always darkest before dawn. /apologies for the banter-y post Yea, I’m hopeful after the 5th. While before that it looks active, I just don’t know if temps will be cold enough to allow for snow. If I was in the Poconos I’d be licking my chops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, susqushawn said: Eternal is a bit strong...until Tombo post a dancing weenie, we are still in the midst of apprehension Till I see strat pv flip around and the trough gets out of AK there will be no dancing weenies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Till I see strat pv flip around and the trough gets out of AK there will be no dancing weenies Yes, the day (hopefully 1st half of Feb) the AK trough moves out is a day worthy of celebration. I dont even care if every other indice is against us, just ship that stalwart pos out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Big Change in the GEFS this run with a ++pna by the 3rd. Drops the hammer with cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Gefs show promise in Pac towards end of run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hallettwx Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hallettwx Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Nice to see gefs flush the deep AK trough out 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Taking one out of the weenie handbook - my trip to Florida the first week of Feb may give us a window 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Beautiful eps run as it kicks the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get a -NAO as the Hudson ridge moves towards Greenland. now reality check....let’s get this inside 7 days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Beautiful eps run as it kicks the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get a -NAO as the Hudson ridge moves towards Greenland. now reality check....let’s get this inside 7 days. Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to day 9. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 36 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to hr 1 Fixed 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to day 9. Btw, if the pattern goes to poo now here is the proof of the gigi jinx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 58 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Btw, if the pattern goes to poo now here is the proof of the gigi jinx I don’t think there is much one can or can’t do to jinx a 3______ hr GFS prog. It’s destined to go sideways. I know the when the GFS is warm in la la land it is warm, but there was a flip with the la la land outlooks in Mid Dec. Whether it was the NAM switch or not, this la la land false cold promises have been falling more than my putts today. Can it/will it change, yes. When I don’t know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I don’t think there is much one can or can’t do to jinx a 3______ hr GFS prog. It’s destined to go sideways. I know the when the GFS is warm in la la land it is warm, but there was a flip with the la la land outlooks in Mid Dec. Whether it was the NAM switch or not, this la la land false cold promises have been falling more than my putts today. Can it/will it change, yes. When I don’t know. Smay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 17 hours ago, Allsnow said: Big Change in the GEFS this run with a ++pna by the 3rd. Drops the hammer with cold. GEFS overnight took away the +pna and dropped a trough into the west coast. We still get a cold shot around the 5th but that look is eeeeeek. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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