tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 So as co leader of the snow weenie community along side of @susqushawnWe’ve decided we need to make up a handbook on snow weenie methodology when it comes to winter and snow. So I’m asking my fellow snow weenies to lend me your ideas. Then we will rank them from most important to not as important. Once we get the rankings down I will type up a final proclamation for the president of the snow weenies @Rainshadow to sign and to put into law. Here are 5 that I have on the top of my head right now. 1. Always side with the coldest and snowiest model for your backyard 2. You use either 10-1 or kuchera depending on which one shows your backyard getting the most snow 3. If no snow falls at your house, you drive to go see snow. 4. The 84hr nam is only right when it shows snow in your backyard 5. You’re frequently looking back to blizzards and crippling snow storms thatbirries your backyard during troubling times 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: So as co leader of the snow weenie community along side of @susqushawnWe’ve decided we need to make up a handbook on snow weenie methodology when it comes to winter and snow. So I’m asking my fellow snow weenies to lend me your ideas. Then we will rank them from most important to not as important. Once we get the rankings down I will type up a final proclamation for the president of the snow weenies @Rainshadow to sign and to put into law. Here are 5 that I have on the top of my head right now. 1. Always side with the coldest and snowiest model for your backyard 2. You use either 10-1 or kuchera depending on which one shows your backyard getting the most snow 3. If no snow falls at your house, you drive to go see snow. 4. The 84hr nam is only right when it shows snow in your backyard 5. Your frequently look back to blizzards and crippling snow storms thatbirries your backyard during troubling times YES! A perfect exercise to distract the morose forum members for the next 2 weeks while we await the promised land! I will most assuredly dig into this in the coming days and look forward to other comments 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 850s below freezing will always produce snow during the day in early March despite above freezing surface temps. Always use snow maps with the most questionable of p-type algorithms so long as it yields more snow. Say a forecast caved by pointing to another forecast. Ignore warmer temps or lower qpf shown on short-term models if they wreck your final call made the night before a storm. If the Euro is the only model showing snow, justify a snow forecast because even in 2020 "Euro is the king". 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Those are good ones @snowlurker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowlurker said: 850s below freezing will always produce snow during the day in early March despite above freezing surface temps. Always use snow maps with the most questionable of p-type algorithms so long as it yields more snow. Say a forecast caved by pointing to another forecast. Ignore warmer temps or lower qpf shown on short-term models if they wreck your final call made the night before a storm. If the Euro is the only model showing snow, justify a snow forecast because even in 2020 "Euro is the king". I see many years of lurking has taught you well young Jedi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 One that I always like is the saying, this is about the time that models lose the storm just to bring it back. It happened like once or twice, but you read that line with almost every storm now. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DelcoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Lack of snow has been caused by any of the following events: Purchase of LL Bean Boots. New snowblower and/or tuneup of said object. Purchase or lease of a new or new-to-you 4x4 motor vehicle to drive in snow. Sale on snow shovels at Home Depot. Last minute Wegman's run for milk, chips, beer and/or wine before the storm fizzles out. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, DelcoWx said: Lack of snow has been caused by any of the following events: Purchase of LL Bean Boots. New snowblower and/or tuneup of said object. Purchase or lease of a new or new-to-you 4x4 motor vehicle to drive in snow. Sale on snow shovels at Home Depot. Last minute Wegman's run for milk, chips, beer and/or wine before the storm fizzles out. This year our town put up a temporary ice skating rink on ~December 20th. Right after that the entire pattern went downhill. I'm blaming them...and I don't think it has been used since they put it up, haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 If a big snowstorm is shown, but then models trend away, ignore the new modeling Place your snowboard so it can catch the snow blowing off the roof If a storm is passing offshore insist the radar looks like Jan 2000 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 when modeling trends poorly within 24 hrs. of the event disregard & claim it's nowcasting time 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafpsu Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 A snowstorm is 10x more likely to hit if you have a vacation planned and won’t be home. Use whatever radar makes the snow appear heavier and more widespread. Complain about the radar presentation during early to mid stages of a snowstorm. Complain about the back edge racing in more quickly than anticipated. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Joe Bastardi posted it, so it can't be biased The acorns fell from my tree a month early, and the squirrels have been fatter than normal this year, so it's gonna be a big storm If the NAVGEM says it's gonna snow, then dammit it's gonna snow 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 If Tony, Tom or any other board member points out that your snow expectations are too high, question their reasoning. If rain changes to snow at Paul's house expect it to changeover at your house shortly 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, ACwx said: Joe Bastardi posted it, so it can't be biased The acorns fell from my tree a month early, and the squirrels have been fatter than normal this year, so it's gonna be a big storm If the NAVGEM says it's gonna snow, then dammit it's gonna snow Another variant, when other models are trending poorly, check to see if the NAVGEM is trending favorably 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 The radar is showing that snow is back building to the west. The convective band is always moving toward you. Exceptions to all this 1993 and 1996. Hope to see one of those again in my lifetime. Boxer Day Blizz was pretty cool too. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: Another variant, when other models are trending poorly, check to see if the NAVGEM is trending favorably And if that fails, look at the Brazilian model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: And if that fails, look at the Brazilian model. can you please give us some of your weenie rules mr president 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: And if that fails, look at the Brazilian model. If the jma is showing a snow storm, recall a coup it scored ten years ago. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hallettwx Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Look at every random pocket of 700mb moisture to the east of the low and call convective feedback 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, hallettwx said: Look at every random pocket of 700mb moisture to the east of the low and call convective feedback thats a good one, def remember seeing that numerous times when a storm misses east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 At the beginning of the winter season with the first snowfall make as big a pile as possible in a shaded area and hope it lasts all season. “Why am I always in a snow hole? All the heavy echoes are going around me.” 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Cancel winter, say you are out of here, and then post repeatedly on today's model runs 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 How much for Philly? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 Weekend rule! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23, 2020 Report Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Cancel winter, say you are out of here, and then post repeatedly on today's model runs This I love...Did you like it Tom?😏 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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