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Results Of Barney VI, You Are A Fossil, But You Are Not Encased In Ice.


Bananashadow
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I have been noticing a pattern that the frigidaire GFS cold bias is not as cold with NAM support.  This is not aligned as Barney comes before the -NAM.  Far be for the GFS to be too fast. :facepalm: The MJO is also rolling over favorably, so we will see.   In a typical scenario, the duration is way overdone even if the absolute minimum is not bad.  If the -NAM disappears, I will start cuing Teletubby episodes again.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I don't really understand much of what I'm looking at, but I'm trying to roll with osmosis...

The Cliff Notes version:  Tom keeps on telling me I get hot and bothered with all of those 90 degree threads in the summer.  I keep on telling him, well those 90 degree threads get thousands of looks vs the <100 looks for these Barney cold threads.  He tells me since all of those looks are his, it is quality over quantity.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

There's a Barney VII in the making:

1.JPG.001cdf4b748967013d6d0728aeb25ff2.JPG

Literally just looked at the 12z GFS and said the same exact thing lol. Barney colors on the WxBell maps usually start around -12C and we got a huge chunk of around -16C here

gfs_T850a_eus_31.png

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On 1/14/2020 at 1:22 PM, ACwx said:

Literally just looked at the 12z GFS and said the same exact thing lol. Barney colors on the WxBell maps usually start around -12C and we got a huge chunk of around -16C here

gfs_T850a_eus_31.png

Now this is what it looks like:

gfs_T850a_eus_8.png.397cf80286f720819f5155ba34d4679e.png

 

GFS overdoing cold outbreaks, not at all said no one ever:

LOL deg C no less:

ANOM2m_f120_verification_ntham.png.c1ad4fc07101a6ab180f66ba3acbb67e.png

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Have to wait for PHL min for week, but lowest 1000-500mb thickness was 523 on the morning of the 20th. Cold bias GFS stopped forecasting too low thicknesses at 06z on 18th, about 48 hours prior. It was forecasting Barney (blo) thicknesses up to about 4 days prior.

Lowest predicted thickness was 501, longest duration of consecutive Barney thicknesses was 72 hours.

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