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May 2014 obs thread


famartin
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Might be a good shot of some solid rain later on tonight during the overnight hours with some t-storms. Euro is pretty aggressive with .5-1 of rain from m/d line on north. euro ens not as wet more like .25 which falls closer to gfs thinking.

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Might be a good shot of some solid rain later on tonight during the overnight hours with some t-storms. Euro is pretty aggressive with .5-1 of rain from m/d line on north. euro ens not as wet more like .25 which falls closer to gfs thinking.

Euro ens mean increased the rain potential for tonight with over .25 for the region now... Looks like the bulk of it comes in after dinner time.

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Starting to see thunderstorms popping up out in western and central PA. Some mediocre CAPE right now on the order of 500-1000 j/kg with a LI of -3 to -4. Some shear out there as well running in the 20-30kt range which maybe the primary trigger of these storms. Combine that with some instability and you have storms, should remain below severe levels. Main threats would be hvy rains with pwats running in the 1.1-1.3 zone, brieft gusty winds and of course lightning. Hail isn't out of the question either, but most of these storms so far are relatively small in terms of height of being generally less than 12k. Anything over 15k cloud top could produce hail as the cloud base is below freezing.

 

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severe thunderstorm warning out

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC005-007-PAC101-102030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0012.140510T1929Z-140510T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR MILLBOURNE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BEN FRANKLIN BRIDGE AND CAMDEN AROUND 335 PM EDT...
WISSINOMING AROUND 340 PM EDT...
PALMYRA AND CHERRY HILL AROUND 345 PM EDT...
GREENTREE AND RIVERSIDE AROUND 350 PM EDT...
MOUNT LAUREL AND MARLTON AROUND 355 PM EDT...
WILLINGBORO AND BURLINGTON AROUND 400 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH
COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 7466 3990 7525 3994 7524 3996 7525
3997 7528 4002 7521 4007 7498 4005 7497
4007 7494 4008 7487 4009 7486 4012 7472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 267DEG 29KT 3995 7520

$

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Maybe a decent shot of some storms later on today especially from the river on west. Euro has a decent shot later on today.

Potential from the cluster near BGM dropping southeast. Backdoor cold front takes eastern parts of the region out of mix. 

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Showers moving through West Chester boro right now.  Nothing more than moderate rain.  Hope it knocks the temps back a bit - almost 80F inside the house!  Too soon to bring the air conditioners out of hibernation, but last night was a tough sleep.

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