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GFS Barney IV, The Revenge Of The Dinosaur. The Verification Is In.


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A better job by the GFS, much better than the Teletubby from the first week. 

Rationalizing 101:  I didn't follow the angle of the cold as closely with this one as we had wintry weather threats ongoing before.  It does help to have not only the correct angle of the cold (maps above), but also have the thermal trof come thru at night as it did with this one.

I Can't Help Finding Fault With GFS Cold 101:  The other model tendency I want to point, it took nearly 48 hours for the GFS to flush out the extremely low thicknesses forecast by this model.  Granted the cold had to be more aloft than below 850mb as somehow its predicted lowest mins were too high.  This is why once the GFS looks like it is going against the grain in the medium range to la la land times, its best to give it two days to see if that pattern is still there.  If you want to see a cold GFS run, it looks like the 18z run was designed especially for you. 



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