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GFS Attempt At Barney III Turned Into A Teletubby


Bananashadow
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Thanks to Carl for the analogy, this was the supposive -EPO on roids the GFS had for a while for the arrival of the arctic air on December 12th.  First problem was it arrived a bit earlier.  Second problem, the lowest temperatures of the week (at PHL & VAY) occurred on Sunday morning the 8th.

Apologies should have started this verification thread sooner.

Given that the lowest thicknesses occurred the evening of the 11th, the GFS cold bias with this one disappeared about 4 days out.

 

Lowest GFS Barney forecast thickness for December 12th starting with 18z run 12/11 working backwards:   535, 535, 534, 535,    535, 535, 534, 536,

537, 537, 538, 538,      537, 537, 538, 539,      538, 537, 534, 532,     528, 522, 519, 519,      517, 520, 518, 519,      508, 509, 511, 518,   

  n/a, 513, 521, 510 (120 consecutive hrs sub 528),    514, 506, 515, 517,     527, 540, 517, 530,    534, 532, 521, 527 (00z/30th).

I had to change that it to the specific day, because as of the most recent GFS forecast, the lowest thickness of this week is occurring right now.

Actual Lowest Thickness:  535

 

The GFS was also forecasting sub 510 thicknesses for this upcoming Wednesday the 18th.

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