Parsley Posted December 14, 2019 Report Share Posted December 14, 2019 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Paul, I know exactly what the m/d line is. Your statement was that he expects snow and ice down to the m/d line, not really that bold considering if it snows for ten minutes, he can claim victory and then if we get a period of ice he can. Also, why on earth would I give him kudos on that when I jumped on this threat before him? Look back in the winter storm page. I said it on dec 7th. I laid it out clearly how if it evolves like that it could be interesting 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 JB sniffing out a storm that goes to the lakes and a 2nd off the mid atlantic with a potential snowstorm toward the end of next week toward New Years day....not a forecast....yet but sharing his thoughts.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 From JB today after 12z runs for the period before doom and gloom becomes full throated mid month!! "But there is a real chance here that the storm on the weekend does exit to the south and it does snow all the way to the coast. No longer are there just pressing height falls on the model. And this is what I am talking about, If you have different mass considerations, the movement of the mass, being lifted in one place, sinking n another, will bend the baroclinic ribbon, If you then focus the height fall center where the bend occurs you are in business, Truth be told, the 500 mb the Euro has is for a midwest to northeast snowstorm, it is still has to get some warm air out of the way, but they run at least makes 2 points. 1) it is not so far fetched that before the doom and gloom after day 10, there are winter threats and 2 ) Remember these are mathematical representations of a system that can not be tamed by men. Whether it happens or not, The 12z run while more bullish is likely not through correcting as it is desperate to try to string it out at the end, but that may be a function a feedback, You roll an upper low through the east like this and here is the problem btw the stringing out at the end and you probably are going to see it snow to the coast from the Delmarva north Of course the GFS had a nice little twist too it in the longer term And before that the GEFS jumps on a clipper but has nothing behind it and huge fight ensues with the Euro having less with the clipper and a cutter behind it, I like the middle. More clipper to push the cold, then a more southern track of the storm from Texas to the Va Capes. I think that storm will be further southeast, near the Va coast next week We'll see In the meantime there is room before the doom and gloom for some fun and games" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 From JB after the 12z runs "The purpose of such extensive discussion on this is not to get into a fight over snow in central park, though I do think it will snow there and if I had to pick a number for snow by Mon am, there it would be 3. Its to get out in front of this, at the risk of being wrong, to explain why modeling is not the end-all to a problem, Say what you want, but there was no bowling ball rolling through with any hope a couple of days ago and this period Jan 5-12 has been on my radar for a while now. I can't help what happened before, and I see what is coming after, but in the meantime, there will be some triumphs with this storm as well as trauma. But this is not a backyard snow argument, for until the meteorology is settled the snow result is not clear, but with that warm water off the east coast, and the upper low coming right at it, I believe this low winds up between Cape May and Va beach, not north of that. As said, you may be 38 over 33 and raining and then bingo, the big wet flakes start coming down. The clipper on the euro spread snow further south than previous runs, and then next storm is further south. While the worst case ( lets say no snow south of I80 in the east and I 70 in the Ohio valley) is on the table, so is the best case as described in the earlier idea." Archived Posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 i'll sell on the 3" at nyc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/1/2020 at 9:03 PM, tombo82685 said: i'll sell on the 3" at nyc It looks like you will have to hang on to your: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 JB's been a bit quiet - he said yesterday he was upset due to his big miss.....he didn't even mention he nailed it at 500mb! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: It looks like you will have to hang on to your: Like taking a banana from a gigi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 JB getting happy again from this PM "JFM forecast issued back in September Our Pioneer model had this. Big changes coming later this month IMO. Winter moving along 14-15 track, cold November, mld thru mid Jan, then fun fun fun" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 14 hours ago, chescopawxman said: JB getting happy again from this PM "JFM forecast issued back in September Our Pioneer model had this. Big changes coming later this month IMO. Winter moving along 14-15 track, cold November, mld thru mid Jan, then fun fun fun" Sell on this, IMO 3 month avg probably 1-3 abv normal avg for our area. JAN warmth going ot be hard to overcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Sell on this, IMO 3 month avg probably 1-3 abv normal avg for our area. JAN warmth going ot be hard to overcome Agreed ++ we are currently at +8.5 in Western Chesco...that will not be overcome - that said I suspect Feb may be near or slightly below avg and the same for our new prime "winter" month - March! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 From JB this AM "Huge bust potential Jersey and LI with storm this aft/night I am in the middle of the options of next to nothing vs the snowstorm idea Central va to central /se pa look good. 2020, 6 hours away and models still all over the place" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 JB excited this AM with pattern change....while I see the change coming....reversing winter warmth thus far?? I am not biting at this point "Since Christmas, our forecast team has been touting the pattern from the 20th on getting cold ( transition the 16-20. The turn around may rival the winter of 65-66 CFSV2 500 MB/temps 30 days starting Jan 20. If correct would erase the warmth of the winter thus far!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 JB on storm potential next weekend "I expect the storm next weekend to try to send a center up into the Ohio Valley, but then the action goes to the coast most likely between Jersey and Va and cold air pushes with the high to the north. IMO that is going to be a close call in the northeast, but a relatively benign event further west" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 JB likes the snowiest model for next weekend....never would have suspected that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, chescopawxman said: JB likes the snowiest model for next weekend....never would have suspected that Sell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 9:48 AM, chescopawxman said: JB excited this AM with pattern change....while I see the change coming....reversing winter warmth thus far?? I am not biting at this point "Since Christmas, our forecast team has been touting the pattern from the 20th on getting cold ( transition the 16-20. The turn around may rival the winter of 65-66 CFSV2 500 MB/temps 30 days starting Jan 20. If correct would erase the warmth of the winter thus far!" Natural gas futures on Friday closed at a 52 week low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 53 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Natural gas futures on Friday closed at a 52 week low. Down even further today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 JB of course seeing inland snowstorm potential next weekend not too far N and W of the big cities but a battle in the cities....he is finding more models this morning than yesterday when he only had one that seemed to support him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: JB of course seeing inland snowstorm potential next weekend not too far N and W of the big cities but a battle in the cities....he is finding more models this morning than yesterday when he only had one that seemed to support him... I’ll sell on the battle in the big cities. This does not look like much of a battle to me with a on shore flow ripping into coastal plain on an already stale airmass. Not sure how far is not to far nw of the cities. But I could see accum snow getting into LV and out by mdt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I’ll sell on the battle in the big cities. This does not look like much of a battle to me with a on shore flow ripping into coastal plain on an already stale airmass. Not sure how far is not to far nw of the cities. But I could see accum snow getting into LV and out by mdt Agreed 100% - I think further NW of MDT...and above 1000 ft IMHO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 JB on the next 2 storms "Both are a product of 2 storms that have to run into the same block that routed the Canadian Cold Quite frankly I would rather that axis be further south to feed snow geese in the southern plains to the mid Atlantic, But just as I am up front about the bust on cold, I do think the idea on storminess with 2 storms during the null phase looks good to me. I explained in the Raging Weather bull and some posts before what happens when you have cooler than normal air in the south returning north and being lifted. The warmer than normal areas further north really never get that cold relative to averages, but the averages at this time of the year are so low that a couple of degrees above average sticks the 850 0 isotherm pretty far south. I would look for the GFS to correct a bit further south on the second storm, The correction if has made on the first is in line with ideas that it would try to run it too far north, and I would be more emphatic if not for the situation a couple of weeks ago where the euro went to a northeast snowstorm, only to have it flip. The GFS whipped it then, but so far with this, the GFS is trending south in tandem with the models. The Canadian always had the most bullish look in the places the GFS does now" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 I honestly have no idea what he is talking about, just seems like rambling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 28, 2020 Report Share Posted January 28, 2020 Has JB crawled into Punxhatanwy’s hole to consult with a higher authority⁉️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted March 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 Long time no JB potential snow thoughts...he is on board for a 150 -200 mile wide band of snow between PHL and NYC with the Friday event.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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