chescowx Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 For those who still enjoy JB including me - let's start a Forecast tracker for the upcoming winter - just keep in mind his cold and snowy bias - but he is good at pattern recognition and can always find a way to show you how it MIGHT snow. JB talking the Thanksgiving weekend potential on his evening tweet below - reality tracker engaged for "big ticket" event N of M/D line... "Cold should hold in NE Low may track very close to past weekend except much colder air with HIGH TO THE NORTH Big-ticket ice/snow n of Mason Dixon line on table for weekend. We warned snow/ice clients this am there should be a south shift, and models showing it now" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 JB says places north of the upper low - North and West of PHL in PA and N and E should see at least a couple inches of snow from the weekend system. He even has 3" to 6" in the NYC area....could his snow bias coming into play early? We shall see. Enjoy the weather it's the... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: JB says places north of the upper low - North and West of PHL in PA and N and E should see at least a couple inches of snow from the weekend system. He even has 3" to 6" in the NYC area....could his snow bias coming into play early? We shall see. Enjoy the weather it's the... yes it will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 13 hours ago, tombo82685 said: yes it will JB’s #1 fan vs. his #1 foe have commenced round one for the 2019-2020 winter season! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Tom not a fan of that "well respected met" who would have thunk it?....not sure I would call myself his #1 fan....as I think his winter forecasts have a serious snow bias....but he remains an excellent source of meteorological insight among many others here and elsewhere. I take all into account and appreciate all who share their knowledge! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: better view if that were to happen would you give Kudos to JB?? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, chescopawxman said: if that were to happen would you give Kudos to JB?? LOL If nyc gets 3-6 and burbs get 1-3, yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: if that were to happen would you give Kudos to JB?? LOL He has already missed twice in my area Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Mitchg said: He has already missed twice in my area Lol. Hi Mitch...but I bet he nailed it at 850 LOL!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 JB's latest tweet "Given the storm if true, this will be a STUNNING victory for the CFSV2 because for over 10 days ago its had a corridor of colder than surrounding areas PHL to Boston because it saw snow on the ground. Just to get this close, IMO, score one for NCEP modeling!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 JB's latest thoughts still going for 3" to 6" for NYC and now says 2" to 4" for PHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted November 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 That well respected MET continues rock solid on his forecast of 3" to 6" for NYC and 2" to 4" for PHL. He says a blend of the Euro Ens and NAM is the way to go. Believes the upper low will be over the DC area and not to the north as the latest GFS shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 12:58 PM, tombo82685 said: If nyc gets 3-6 and burbs get 1-3, yes You'll have to keep your kudos on ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: You'll have to keep your kudos on ice. Yup, no 3-6 nyc, 2-4 philly, or accumulating snow in burbs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yup, no 3-6 nyc, 2-4 philly, or accumulating snow in burbs BTW your initial, initial thought about how this whole event was going to transpire was pretty much spot on. Like a multiple choice test, the first guess is usually right. Then "guidance" rolled in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2019 Report Share Posted December 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: BTW your initial, initial thought about how this whole event was going to transpire was pretty much spot on. Like a multiple choice test, the first guess is usually right. Then "guidance" rolled in. yea, my first snow map was solid. Then with everything shifting west and we were inside 24grs, had to update, then I got lucy'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 8:38 AM, tombo82685 said: Yup, no 3-6 nyc, 2-4 philly, or accumulating snow in burbs No Kudos for JB!! Close only counts in checkers!! We will continue to track..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 I strongly agree with JBs thoughts below. At least he puts out a forecast (avg. temps +1 in December etc.) - which will show how right or wrong he is - however the whole equal chances of above etc. in climate outlooks is NOT a forecast - not even sure I would call it guidance. What is a Forecast? There should be no question on what this is. It is an attempt to quantify a parameter at a future date. Consequently, to be a forecast, one must quantify a measurable metric and then compare what happens to that metric. Anything other than that is less than a forecast Its like if you are Lee Corso on Game Day when he says, Not so fast my friend, this will be closer than the experts think. Is he forecasting a victory? If he says Ohio State will beat LSU in the national title game, that is a forecast, If he says I would not be surprised to see them beat LSU, or LSU may not lose to Ohio State, that may be great information, but it is not a forecast Over the years, academia has attempted to improve risk analysis but developing methods that while guidance, are not forecast. Vague terms such as much below or much above normal have skewed in a way I think is almost deceptive, what is actually going on, Ever watch Global temperature reports. A much above in the tropics may be .1C while in the arctic it may be closer to 10C.. So how are they in any way the same thing? Put your number down, dont tell me things like cloudier than normal or above normal, or the infamous double whammy, the percentage change of above, below or normal. While it may be guidance to lead to the forecast, it is not a forecast and just saying below or above is a cop-out to me We don't live in a dang classroom. And a lot of these methods are developed by people who really don't forecast They are smart, likely smarter than me, but it is refusing to take a stand, Running away from the chance that like over the southeast last year, your errors can be laid bare for everyone to see. Again guidance yes. It could be geat guidance but it is not the forecast. Its like living in a virtual world, It is not the same thing. Maybe that is a problem, that is where the field is heading to avoid confrontation and the realization that maybe, you aren't the master of your own destiny, so you avoid the real fight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The well respected MET is on board the snow and ice train for north of the mason dixon line with the next event (16th-18th) since last Saturday. He is still not getting into accumulation but sees a Miller B storm running to the lakes with a secondary popping off the coast....and then some strong to near record cold to follow by the pre-Christmas weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 JB still on the snow ice train north of the mason dixon line as depicted on the 6z euro mean run....will we be granting kudos or kudnots for this one?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, chescopawxman said: JB still on the snow ice train north of the mason dixon line as depicted on the 6z euro mean run....will we be granting kudos or kudnots for this one?? not really a ballsy call saying snow and ice north m/d line. That could be binghamton which is north of m/d line. I certainly see some ice for nw burbs and maybe snow to start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 hours ago, tombo82685 said: not really a ballsy call saying snow and ice north m/d line. That could be binghamton which is north of m/d line. I certainly see some ice for nw burbs and maybe snow to start Tom can't give an inch to that "well respected met" - c'mon Tom you know what that means - when he says north of the m/d line that means north of the line along PA and MD border...meaning he thinks there will be accumulating snow and or ice down to that line. I will draw you a map next time if needed - LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Why wait here is your map.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2019 Report Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 hours ago, chescopawxman said: Tom can't give an inch to that "well respected met" - c'mon Tom you know what that means - when he says north of the m/d line that means north of the line along PA and MD border...meaning he thinks there will be accumulating snow and or ice down to that line. I will draw you a map next time if needed - LOL! Paul, I know exactly what the m/d line is. Your statement was that he expects snow and ice down to the m/d line, not really that bold considering if it snows for ten minutes, he can claim victory and then if we get a period of ice he can. Also, why on earth would I give him kudos on that when I jumped on this threat before him? Look back in the winter storm page. I said it on dec 7th. I laid it out clearly how if it evolves like that it could be interesting On 12/7/2019 at 2:08 AM, tombo82685 said: Ill tell ya, after next weekend’s likely rainstorm, the following system could be interesting. Next weekend system would act as your 50/50 low and the wave break from that would give you a temporary window of a -nao. Would help possibly to keep next system under us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2019 From JB The GFS and NAM have been trying to kill the front running precip for days and I dont believe that is going to be the case. In fact, the runs remind me of April 1-2 2018 where the GFS 18z run on March 31 had no 2-inch amounts in Pa into New England. while the euro had 4-8, which verified in most of the area With this system, it has consistently tried to regenerate more back to the west but is gradually shifting to the Euro ideas, which since Thursday have been consistent and I believe will carry the day, The cold is coming into the northeast tomorrow and there is simply not enough time for warm air with a positively tilted trough to kick it out, so the result should be as described to you in the video. Lets see what the 12z Euro has Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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