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Final GFS Verification Of Barney I & Barney II


Bananashadow
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Here is a running table of the GFS's lowest predicted thickness as well as max temps.  Word of caution about 11/8, that is an afternoon max temp. The daytime max temp may occur at midnight.  If one takes away those (I dont know what to say) non sounding runs, the model has been pretty consistent.  Rather high thicknesses for such low maxes, mainly because the cold air is more shallow and concentrated below 850mb.  The GFS can overdo this, although the Euro is also close. BTW prior to Halloween, there were not many runs that had it this cold as the GFS was (knock me over with a feather) too progressive/zonal with the cold air.

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The record low maximum temperature for PHL for 11/8 is 41F set in 1927 and for 11/9 it is 40F set in 1976.  That was one brutally cold Oct-Jan. 

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I am going to keep the same format for Barney II.  I thought about min temps, but that will be more variable than max temps pending snow cover, sky coverage and winds.  There is not going to be snow coverage (barring something very strange) with Barney I for mins, so I decided to keep it a max comparison.

I tried to start about the same forecast point in the future. Well time will tell, but just to put some historical perspective on consecutive days with max temps less than 32F.  The current November record is 2 days set in 1891 and 1880.  The two coldest months of November only had 1 and coincidentally they both were on November 30th.  November 4th GFS started consistently forecasting sub 520 thicknesses, although lowest thick forecast goes to 00z run on the 3rd: 503.

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Record low max temps 40F on 11/12,  35F on 11/13 & 11/14 & 11/15, 31F on 11/16 & 34F on 11/17.  

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Here is the final result from Barney II.  It took the GFS a full calendar day of model runs to get rid of the egregiously cold forecasts for the middle of this week.  I couldnt go back to see completely, but one run did have a decent measurable snow.   Then it did a slow creep up toward reality, accurately predicting the Wednesday high about two days out.  The Euro for its part never really bit in the new under freezing record, or if it did it, it dropped it well before the GFS.  The 128 hours of consecutive sub 528 thicknesses once forecast by the GFS was really 12 hours, would have been better if it dropped the 8 and moved the decimal point over.  The 498 predicted thickness for Kansas City, MO was 524.  Once we were within 5 days, no model was colder, the ICON is run out of Heisey's house.

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