tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2019 Report Share Posted November 2, 2019 Euro ticking south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2019 Haven’t looked to close at this but it’s. Or a bad setup as long as it remains on progressive side. If cold digs south a ton it’s wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2019 Closer in look at euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2019 Report Share Posted November 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Closer in look at euro After seeing how much the Euro has botched events up during October (not alone) and the GFS is more interested in forecasting for Neptune than Earth, from a following perspective, something is going to remain there (there have been ensemble members with snow for a couple of days); for a general decent idea of the 500mb pattern, it's Monday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2019 There was a bit of an uptick in the eps for snowfall, but still rather meh south of poconos. Mitch and sne looking good this far out for first possible snow of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 The control was among the snowiest last night for PHL. OP EC not in sync with ensemble mean for last night's run. GEFS mean also holding around 7 of 21 with measurable snow for PHL. Total number of EPS members with measurable snow for PHL was 18 of 51 vs 12 of 51 on yesterday's day run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Need work for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: Need work for this one Good chance the gfs gives us "fake" snow at some point in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Mitchg said: More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north. I didn't look at BGM per se (vs places between us) being in the bullsye, it looked like the 06z EPS went back to almost exclusively a northwest of PHL clustering, premise of wave induced rain changing to snow before ending. I am being totally diplomatic, I have zero confidence in any GFS pcpn solution outside of 84 hours and thermal solution outside of 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I would toss the gfs so far it may land on Gigi's doorstep. GFS scream again of just to progressive and blasting cold everywhere crushing the wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: Good chance the gfs gives us "fake" snow at some point in the next day or two. You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run. The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run. The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours. Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Mitchg said: Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. Well you have two models gung ho and two models meh. So we have the EC to decide. Then we can do it all over again in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 EURO looks like a happy medium as expected. Not sure about thermals though, its a bit faster than GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Well you have two models gung ho and two models meh. So we have the EC to decide. Then we can do it all over again in 6 hours. 1 hour ago, Mitchg said: Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. The EC is closer to the CMC than the UKMET. Most of the GFS ensemble members are closer in line with the EC than its own let's make a model with a more progressive bias even more progressive. Anyway Charlie's "fake" snow GFS run is probably a run or two away from happening. FWIW (a little bit, but not much) the heaviest predicted snow swath is across the northern Poconos into the Mid Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: EURO looks like a happy medium as expected. Not sure about thermals though, its a bit faster than GFS as well. It is a toned down version from yesterday's day run. PHL Intl no measurable. Some light accums in NW burbs, best toward Andy, then 2-5" for NW NJ/Lehigh Valley/Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I don't have precip but that's a cold air mass with a weak low in a good spot in lala land...awesome cold 12z euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, susqushawn said: I don't have precip but that's a cold air mass with a weak low in a good spot in lala land...awesome cold 12z euro run Looks like 4-8 on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like 4-8 on euro Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out. Day 9 & Euro, purrrrrrrrrrrrfect together. Two things it got going for it: Monmouth County has the bullseye and VAY > Gilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Day 9 & Euro, purrrrrrrrrrrrfect together. Two things it got going for it: Monmouth County has the bullseye and VAY > Gilly. CAn you please stop that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Just now, tombo82685 said: CAn you please stop that Don't yell at the messenger. ⛄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Ensemble wise there are comparable number of members that have measurable for both systems for PHL (about 14 or 15 out of 51). The control had no measurable for the first event and about 3 inches with day 9 number 9 number 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Chubbs said: Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out. Do you remember last year when the Euro had the November snow when we were golfing, what forecast day it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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