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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond)


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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Closer in look at euro 

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After seeing how much the Euro has botched events up during October (not alone) and the GFS is more interested in forecasting for Neptune than Earth, from a following perspective, something is going to remain there (there have been ensemble members with snow for a couple of days); for a general decent idea of the 500mb pattern, it's Monday at the earliest.  

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The control was among the snowiest last night for PHL.  OP EC not in sync with ensemble mean for last night's run. GEFS mean also holding around 7 of 21 with measurable snow for PHL.     Total number of  EPS members with measurable snow for PHL was 18 of 51 vs 12 of 51 on yesterday's day run.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_240hr-3603200.png.9e5a9841837ea6f48ca5f484afc59215.png

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12 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north.  

I didn't look at BGM per se (vs places between us) being in the bullsye, it looked like the 06z EPS went back to almost exclusively a northwest of PHL clustering, premise of wave induced rain changing to snow before ending.   I am being totally diplomatic, I have zero confidence in any GFS pcpn solution outside of 84 hours and thermal solution outside of 6 days. 

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Good chance the gfs gives us "fake" snow at some point in the next day or two.

You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run.

The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours.

 

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24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run.

The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours.

 

Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. 

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43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well you have two models gung ho and two models meh.  So we have the EC to decide.  Then we can do it all over again in 6 hours.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. 

The EC is closer to the CMC than the UKMET.  Most of the GFS ensemble members are closer in line with the EC than its own let's make a model with a more progressive bias even more progressive.  Anyway Charlie's "fake" snow GFS run is probably a run or two away from happening.  FWIW (a little bit, but not much) the heaviest predicted snow swath is across the northern Poconos into the Mid Hudson Valley. 

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

EURO looks like a happy medium as expected. Not sure about thermals though, its a bit faster than GFS as well. 

It is a toned down version from yesterday's day run.  PHL Intl no measurable.  Some light accums in NW burbs, best toward Andy, then 2-5" for NW NJ/Lehigh Valley/Poconos.   

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